Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US Existing Home Sale for September are better than expected
• Oct 23 2009 Forex Market Update
• $EURUSD maintains bid (relative to GBP at least) in range trade today
• IMF Straus Kahn on newswires
• It’s all about the UK today. Weak GDP sends the GBPUSD sharply lower
• Re-broadcast of Oct 22 Training - How to Exit a trade
• Eurozone Industrial Orders
• UK GDP much worse than expected
• German IFO
• German Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
• French Economic Data stronger across the board
• 10-23 Economic Calendar
• EURO Makes New Highs
• EUR/GBP Breaks Hourly Wedge

US Existing Home Sale for September are better than expected Posted: 23 Oct 2009 07:04 AM PDT The sales pace came in at 5.57 M on an annualized basis. THis was above last months 5.09M pace and above teh expectation of 5.35M.  The change on the month came in up 9.4%  for the month.  THe months supply fell sharply to 7.8 months which is down sharply from the 9.3 months supply last month.  This is the lowest level since March 2007.  The $8000 credit and the large number of short sales/foreclosed homes are supporting sales. The question is, will it keep up when the incentive expires at the end of November.  Most of the sales are in the low end of the market.  The high end is still suffering.  Overall , the report is good news but it can be misleading.

Oct 23 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 23 Oct 2009 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. Thanks for all your postive comments and posts on the blog Greg & Shawn

$EURUSD maintains bid (relative to GBP at least) in range trade today Posted: 23 Oct 2009 05:57 AM PDT The EURUSD has maintained a move range bound bias. There has been up and down action but activity seems to be centered around the midpoint of the days range. That level comes in at the 1.5026 level.   The close from yesterday was 1.5032.  The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.5028 and the 200 bar MA comes in at 1.5030.  Clearly, there should be an upside bias above the 1.5032 level and a downside bias below 1.5026.   This seems to make the most logical sense given the days activity so far and the technical clues from the 5 minute chart. The price earlier today moved down and tested trendline support and bounced (see hourly chart).  This trendline has now contained declines on 4 separate occassions.  It currently comes in at the 1.5004 level and will be the next key support target on a move below the 1.5026 level.  A move below this level will next target the low for the day at the 1.4991 level but more importantly the 100 hour MA at the 1.4976 level currently (and moving higher). On the topside, the 1.5046, 1.5060 high today and the longer term target going back to old highs/lows form 2008 come in at 1.5073-83.  These are the topside levels to watch and target.

IMF Straus Kahn on newswires Posted: 23 Oct 2009 05:36 AM PDT The IMF is taking on a more important role in the global economy. He is on the newswire saying that it seems the global economy has turned around and gives credit to the turnaround to global cooperation.  However he does warn that the risks are not over and the withdrawal of stimuls could hurt recovery efforts and threaten social stability.  Finally, he warns against countries going their own way - away from the cooperative efforts in combating the issues.  Word are cautious.

It’s all about the UK today. Weak GDP sends the GBPUSD sharply lower Posted: 23 Oct 2009 05:23 AM PDT The UK GDP came out much weaker then expectations this morning and the surprise sent the GBPUSD down sharply (-0.4% for 3Q vs 0.2% expectations).  The fall took place after the currency pair extended the topside move through resistance at the 1.6661-64 area and to a new high of 1.6693.  The resulting sell off has taken the price back down through the 100 hour MA at the 1.6492 level currently and yesterdays low at 1.6486.   This level is also the 38.2% retracement of the move down today.  As a result, although 100 pips away from current levels, the area will be used as upside resistance to sell against on any rallies.  Before that level look for the 1.6445 to provide resistance. The price on the hourly chart now targets the 38.2% retracement of the sharp move up from the October 13th low to the high reached today. That level comes in at the 1.6316 level (see chart above).  The 200 hour moving average is currently at 1.6302 and moving higher. I would expect some support against this level but a break should not be ignored. The move down has also moved GBPUSD back down to test the 100 day MA on the daily chart. This level comes in today at the 1.6359 level.  Although important only a closing basis, the level will excite sellers on a breach below.  The low for the day comes in at the 1.6364.  Watch this key level for clues to further selling.

Re-broadcast of Oct 22 Training - How to Exit a trade Posted: 23 Oct 2009 05:21 AM PDT Watch the live training from Thursday at 4pm HERE. Special segment on how to exit a trade. Be sure to give it 2-3 minutes to load and buffer. Please leave comments if you found this training helpful.

Eurozone Industrial Orders Posted: 23 Oct 2009 02:10 AM PDT Eurozone Industrial Orders m/m came in at 2.0%, stronger than the 1.2% expected. Eur/Usd got a small lift of good number , it now trades at 1.5033 up about 10 points. Sterling’s weakness is still dominating trading and Euro gains may be attributed to Eur/Gbp’s rise. The pair currently trades at .9150 up 130 points in last 40 minutes.

UK GDP much worse than expected Posted: 23 Oct 2009 01:40 AM PDT UK GDP q/q came in at -0.4%, much worse than the 0.2% expected. Y/Y came in at -5.2%, worse than the -4.6% expected. The pound got hammered on this news as Gbp/Usd has given back 150 points of gains and currently trades at 1.6510. Eur/Gbp moved 100 pips higher, currently trading at .9100.

German IFO Posted: 23 Oct 2009 01:02 AM PDT German IFO Business Climate came in at 91.9, slightly weaker than the 92.0 expected. Current Assesment came in at 87.3, weaker than the 88.0  expected. Expectations came in at 96.8, stronger than the 96.2 expected. Eur/Usd has sold off 15 pips thus far, currently trading at 1.5010.

German Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI Posted: 23 Oct 2009 12:41 AM PDT German Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.1, stronger than the 50.2 expected. Flash Sevices PMI came in at 50.9, wqeaker than the 52.5 expected. No major market effect on mixed numbers out of Germany as Eur/Usd trades at 1.5025

French Economic Data stronger across the board Posted: 23 Oct 2009 12:04 AM PDT French Consumer Spending m/m came in at 2.3%, surpassing the 0.3% estimate. Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.3, stronger than the 53.3 estimate. Flash Services PMI came in at 57.8, stronger than the 54.0 estimate. Positive number for the Euro as it has rebounded vs. the Usd to once again trade above 1.5000. the pair is up 10 pips on news to 1.5005.

10-23 Economic Calendar Posted: 22 Oct 2009 09:54 PM PDT

EURO Makes New Highs Posted: 22 Oct 2009 06:08 PM PDT The EUR/USD broke the 1.5048 level and hit 1.5060 on what seemed like an equity trade on the Japanese open as Asian equities and US futures are bid across the board. The EUR/JPY pair hit the ~137.80 level not seen since August, further suggesting the move was equity related. The next move has been a straight USD move from its lows as it goes bid against the Yen and the Euro.

EUR/GBP Breaks Hourly Wedge Posted: 22 Oct 2009 05:57 PM PDT The EUR/GBP pair briefly broke the hourly wedge below on a Sterling move to new October highs, but the reaction quickly subsided and the pair re-entered the wedge. The consolidating wedge is expiring and break lower could mean a break below 90 cents.

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