Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- EURUSD tests intraday resistance at 1.4898
- UoM Prelim Consumer Sentiment/Budget Balance
- US Industrial Production
- TIC Long- Term Purchases
- October 16th 2009 Morning Forex Report looks at the stronger dollar this morning
- FXDD Trading between the Goalposts - Moving Average Training
- Eurozone Trade Balance less than expected
- Swiss Retail Sales
- 10-16 Economic Calendar
- Geithner Comments on the USD & GBP/USD
- October 15th 2009 Midday Forex Report discusses the EURGBP and other related currency pairs
- Dollar selling continues and sends USDCHF back down. Bias down but watch the volatility.
- Crude Oil Inventories
- GBPUSD has trended higher today. Short term MA support bounce helps the tone.
- EURUSD rebounds from overnights sharp selloff. Tests yesterdays close
| EURUSD tests intraday resistance at 1.4898 Posted: 16 Oct 2009 06:57 AM PDT The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found at the 1.4898 level. This level was tested and the market moved back down off the resistance. The price has been able to stay below the 100 bar MA for most of the trading day. COntinue to look for sellers against the level. A break above will target 1.4919 where the 200 bar MA (green line) is located.
The TIC data this morning was not good for the dollar. The combination of the current month and last month show a Flow out of the dollar (+10.2B this month and a revised -107.7B! in July). Nevertheless look for sellers against the level initially at least. |
| UoM Prelim Consumer Sentiment/Budget Balance Posted: 16 Oct 2009 06:57 AM PDT The details are as follows:
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| Posted: 16 Oct 2009 06:18 AM PDT The USD caught a slight bid on the better than expected release of US Industrial Production which came in at 0.7% versus its forecast of 0.1% and prior release of 0.8%. Also to be noted are the following details of the US Capacity Utilization rate:
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| Posted: 16 Oct 2009 06:03 AM PDT TIC Long-Term Purchases, which is the difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by foreigners, came in worse than expected. The reading was 28.6B versus its forecast of 30.1B and prior release of 15.3B. The market had a limited reaction to the release. |
| October 16th 2009 Morning Forex Report looks at the stronger dollar this morning Posted: 16 Oct 2009 05:57 AM PDT |
| FXDD Trading between the Goalposts - Moving Average Training Posted: 16 Oct 2009 05:54 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. FXDD Trading between the Goalposts - Moving Average Training Learn a key strategy that Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell use to define areas of support and resistance in the charts with dual Moving Averages. |
| Eurozone Trade Balance less than expected Posted: 16 Oct 2009 02:03 AM PDT Eurozone Trade Balance came in at a surplus of 1.0B, less than the 5.1B expected and 6.8B prior reading. Eur/Usd traded down to session lows on bad number and has now gained back about 10 pips to 1.4901. |
| Posted: 16 Oct 2009 12:18 AM PDT Swiss Retail Sales y/y came in at -1.0%, weaker than the 0.8% expected. Usd /Chf currently off from its highs trading at 1.0165. Eur/Chf is at its high of 1.5171. |
| Posted: 15 Oct 2009 08:55 PM PDT
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| Geithner Comments on the USD & GBP/USD Posted: 15 Oct 2009 05:14 PM PDT Treasury Secretary Geithner had the following positive comments on the USD during a CNBC interview, however the USD moved lower, particularly agains the Pound.
Below you can see the GBP/USD gapping higher as it moves toward Septemeber levels, on speculation that the BOE will pause asset purchases.
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| October 15th 2009 Midday Forex Report discusses the EURGBP and other related currency pairs Posted: 15 Oct 2009 09:36 AM PDT |
| Dollar selling continues and sends USDCHF back down. Bias down but watch the volatility. Posted: 15 Oct 2009 08:26 AM PDT
The USDCHF had a nice rally to the upside on the back of the bounce back above support at 1.0135 area (key levels going back to July 2008 on the daily chart) and corrective selling in the EURUSD and EURGBP (perhaps a move for the Dow down back below 10,000 helped as well). The correction took the price back up toward the old 2009 low of 1.0188 level. The high reached 1.0195 but there was no further momentum. As the tide has turned this morning, so has the tide of the USDCHF. Selling has now pushed the price back below the 1.0135 level and in the process the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart has been broken. Admittedly, this is not the type of market that is condusive to rational movements. Typically, the market does not have the volatile up and down moves that occurred over the last 6 or so hours. However, the move back below the 100 bar MA currently at the 1.0149 level swings the bias back down again. Look to sell against this level with a stop above. Alternatively, buying against the low of the day at the 1.0117 level can be done with a stop on a break. My feeling is don’t look to risk a lot in the USDCHF today as the price volatility opens the door for anything today. Risk is increased. So be on alert and watch the risk. |
| Posted: 15 Oct 2009 08:11 AM PDT Crude Oil Inventories in the US were 0.4 M versus its last reading of -1.0M and its forecast of 1.0M. The market showed a limited reaction to the release. |
| GBPUSD has trended higher today. Short term MA support bounce helps the tone. Posted: 15 Oct 2009 08:00 AM PDT
The GBPUSD has trended higher today on the back of a sharp selloff in the EURGBP and some chatter that the on again, off again need for more Quantitative easings turning to the off side. The market likes when less QE easings occur in the UK. This benefits the pound. However, the price has been consolidating over the last few hours and this has allowed the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart to catch up. The current MA level comes in at 1.6212. When this happens, the market has a decision to make. Does it move higher away from the MA or does it consolidate/correct more and move below the average? From the 5 minute chart above, the market has decided to move higher away from the MA. The low reached 1.6220 and buyers came in against the MA at the 1.6212 level. This is bullish for the pair and a move back to the high can not be ruled out (high reached 1.6298).
Above the high, is the 1.6317 level. This is an old support level from the summer consolidation (low close from the range where most trading took place was 1.6317) and 1.6347 which is the current 100 day MA. I would expect good resistance against these levels on further upside momentum for the pair. |
| EURUSD rebounds from overnights sharp selloff. Tests yesterdays close Posted: 15 Oct 2009 07:34 AM PDT
Yesterday the EURUSD closed at 1.4924. The move back up off the low today has reached 1.4924. Look for the level to attract sellers. If the price moves back above, it should encourage the dollar bears once again. The target on the upside would extend to 1.4943 area where the trendline on the daily comes in. The next target would be the high for the day at 1.4967.
A move back below 1.4913 (100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart - blue line) should confirm a further downside move toward 1.4905 and 1.4890. If downside momentum can be established the price of the EURUSD could correct down to the 100 hour MA which currently comes in at the 1.4825 level. The low today reached the 1.4842 level. |
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