Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• $EURUSD breaks 1.5000 level and sellers enter. Now what?
• GBPUSD breaks above the 1.6589 level and moves to next target area at 1.6620. 1.6661 next target
• Oct 21 2009 Forex Market Update
• FXDD Online Training Video rebroadcast from Oct 20 2009
• USDJPY supported today by the 100 hour MA at the 90.70 level.
• EURUSD moves below 100 hour MA at 1.4927. Market searching for the next directional move.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.21.2009
• $GBPUSD continues its move higher today. 1.6589 a key level. Support 1.6531.
• BOE Darling on the newswires
• US Mortgage Applications fall by -13.8% for the current week
• UK CBI Industrial Orders
• Usd/Jpy has stronghold above 100 hour M/A, sets sights on 91.07
• Bank of England MPC Minutes
• Gbp/Usd slips back to 1.6485-90
• Sterling approaches 1.6500, highest since Sept. 17th

$EURUSD breaks 1.5000 level and sellers enter. Now what? Posted: 21 Oct 2009 07:02 AM PDT   The market breached the 1.5000 level reaching a high bid of 1.5002 and profit taking sellers entered.  The sharp move higher (from the lows) seems to be from good buyers in the interbank market.  Stocks moving higher have also helped as the good news is bad news for the dollar scenario continues.  The market did also gains confidence as the market moved back above the 100 hour MA.  As mentioned in the prior post, the market price has been above and below the level today. However, the bias shifted to bullish on moves above and in this case the move above was met by strong buying. Now that the 1.5000 level has printed, has the EURUSD seen enough?  The correction has moved down to the low 1.4980s.  There is support at the 1.4959-1.4964 level where the old high for the day was reached and the 38.2% retracement of the days range is found.  I would expect nervous shorts (due to the strong unsuspected buying ), to keep a bid in the market.  So look for buyers on dips with stops on a move below the 1.4959 level.  A  move below 1.4959 muddies the water however.

GBPUSD breaks above the 1.6589 level and moves to next target area at 1.6620. 1.6661 next target Posted: 21 Oct 2009 06:47 AM PDT The GBPUSD moved above the 1.6589 level (see prior post for comment) and moved up to the next target resistance level of 1.6620.  Above this level targets 1.6661.   There seems to be good buyers of the currencies with dollar selling across the board.   Support in the GBPUSD now comes in against the 1.6589 level.

Oct 21 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 21 Oct 2009 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. Here is the link to the training from yesterday. You can watch the training that Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell put on here Be sure to give it a few mins to load. Thanks for attending. Next Training Thursday October 22nd 2009 4pm

FXDD Online Training Video rebroadcast from Oct 20 2009 Posted: 21 Oct 2009 06:29 AM PDT Here is the link to the training from yesterday. You can watch the training that Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell put on yesterday here Be sure to give it a few mins to load. Thanks for attending. Next Training Thursday October 22nd 2009 4pm

USDJPY supported today by the 100 hour MA at the 90.70 level. Posted: 21 Oct 2009 05:53 AM PDT The price of the USDJPY has not closed below the hour moving average today.  There was one breach of the line (blue line in the chart above) which should have led to lower prices but the market price rebounded back above the moving average and the upside was explored.  The high has reached a high of 91.16 so far today.  The high yesterday was 91.31.  This is the next upside target.  A break of 91.31, next targets the 91.72 level where the 38.2% retracement level and the lows from July 2009 are located.  On the downside, support comes in against the 100 hour MA which is currently at the 90.70 level.  On the downside, support comes in against the 100 hour MA at the 90.68 currently (and rising).  A break below will look to target the 200 hour MA which is currently at  the 90.15 level.

EURUSD moves below 100 hour MA at 1.4927. Market searching for the next directional move. Posted: 21 Oct 2009 05:36 AM PDT The EURUSD has been trading above and below the 100 hour MA today in wha was a symetrical formation.  The move below and the move above were of nearly identical duration and movement (below and above the MA).  The price has moved back below the MA level in early NY trade. The moving average comes in at the 1.4927 level. This should lead to lower levels for the pair.  The low today, on the first break below, reached a low of 1.4888.  From there the market moved higher and extended the upside to the 1.4964 level.  The market is consolidating and with no economic data to lean on, the market will likely look to the stock and commodity markets for the clues.  The trading decision becomes if the price is below the MA then the bias is down.  Downside target will be the 200 hour MA at the 1.4870 level.  A move above the MA turns the bias to the upside.  The upside resistance would come in at 1.4942 (close from yesterday), the high for the day at 1.4964 and the 1.5000 area (of course).

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.21.2009 Posted: 21 Oct 2009 05:23 AM PDT Good Morning: Speculation that central bankers may start to consider increasing interest rates as signs that the global recession is waning, led the GBP and Kiwi to rise against the USD overnight.  Worldwide equity markets dropped.  European stocks were hurt as Deutsche and Peugeot announced results that were less than expected.  US Futures are pointing to a lower opening this morning after Boeing announced larger losses than analysts expected. Crude oil and metals were lower in overnight trading. OIl:$77.85                      Gold:$1051.20 HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

$GBPUSD continues its move higher today. 1.6589 a key level. Support 1.6531. Posted: 21 Oct 2009 05:04 AM PDT Be it the BOE minutes or the ability to bounce off the 100 day MA, the GBPUSD has rallied to new move highs of 1.6589 today.  The low for the day came in at the 1.6346 level. The 100 day MA today comes in today at 1.6350.  This successful test and bounce gave the bulls a reason to buy - and they did. The price also used the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart as a springboard to higher levels.  At the time of the key test today, the 100 and 200 bar MA converged with the price before moving higher. This is often a good low risk trade opportunity (stop if the price starts moving below the moving averages).  When the market bounced it gave another green light for the buyers.   The price in the move higher, was able to get above the 61.8% retracment of the move down from the August 5th high to the low reached October 13th.  This level comes in at 1.6531 and this will be the support today.  The high reached at 1.6589 was the high closing price over the range trading in the summer months.  During the June to early September period the market traded predominantly between 1.6317 and 1.6589 on a closing basis.  The high of this level was revisited today and I would expect it will continue to provide the upside resistance today.  A move above this level targets the 1.6620 and then 1.6661.

BOE Darling on the newswires Posted: 21 Oct 2009 04:46 AM PDT Says that it is too early to be complacent about the economy.  He noted that Quantitative Easing steps are working  and ending support now would be wrong.  He feels that the BOE should be sure the recovery is fully embedded before acting.  The BOE meeting minutes this morning were released and the GBPUSD moved higher on the assumption the central bank was leaning toward suspending QE measures.  These comments are uncommitted but suggest an end may be near, but still too early.

US Mortgage Applications fall by -13.8% for the current week Posted: 21 Oct 2009 04:37 AM PDT Mortgage Applications for the current week fell by -13.7%   vs  -1.8% last week.  Within the release the Purchase indes fell by -7.6%   vs  -5.0%  last week.  The  Refinancing Index fell by -16.8%  vs  -0.1% last week.  The average rate for a 30-year mortgage rose to  5.07% from   5.03% last week.  There is that feeling that the buy the dip strategy may be waning a bit.

UK CBI Industrial Orders Posted: 21 Oct 2009 03:16 AM PDT UK CBI Industrial Orders Expectations came in at -51, weaker than the -45 expected. Sterling has sold off from highs , currently trading at 1.6538.

Usd/Jpy has stronghold above 100 hour M/A, sets sights on 91.07 Posted: 21 Oct 2009 02:56 AM PDT Usd/Jpy has held above 100 hour M/A (90.64)  for last couple of hours. It appears to be ready to test yesterday’s high of 91.07. If it does indeed trade above 91.07 a move to 91.30 is possible. Remaining below should bring pair back down to 90.64 or 100 hour M/A.

Bank of England MPC Minutes Posted: 21 Oct 2009 01:47 AM PDT Bank of England voted 9-0 to keep rates at 0.5%. Quantitative Easing remains at £175 B. Both moves were as the market had expected. Cable had rallied just before release to the 1.6510-15, up from 1.6470. Rally continued after release bring the pair to current level and  new high of 1.6542. Eur/Gbp is trading at .9032, a new session low.

Gbp/Usd slips back to 1.6485-90 Posted: 21 Oct 2009 01:10 AM PDT Gbp//Usd has slipped back to the 1.6485-90 level some 30 pips off earlier highs. The release of Bank of England minutes comes in about 20 minutes which could have a high impact on Gbp trading.

Sterling approaches 1.6500, highest since Sept. 17th Posted: 21 Oct 2009 12:36 AM PDT Gbp/Usd has traded upto 1.6505 thus far. 1.6500 could act as a psychological level of resisitance. Sterling hasn’t traded this high since September 17th’s high of 1.6553. If the pair could remain above we may see gains to that old high of 1.6553. If the pair does not break higher trendline support at 1.6355 should come into play.

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