Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
• Oct 15 2009 Forex Market Update
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.15.2009
• Gbp/Jpy not far off from 200 day M/A
• Eur/Gbp continues lower
• Eur/Gbp trades down to 200 hour M/A
• 10-15 Economic Calendar
• Well Eur/Usd test the top of this channel and then break through?
• AUD/USD Hit New 2009 Highs
• RBA Governor Stevens Speaks in Perth Australia
• Australian Inflation Expectation
• New Zealand Economic Releases
• October 14th 2009 Evening Forex Report is available for viewing
• USDCHF also tested key support, failed and bounced
• Failing on the break…..EURUSD back down below 1.4932. Support 1.4897 now.

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Posted: 15 Oct 2009 07:02 AM PDT The USD sold off slightly across the board on the release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for October which came in at 11.5; slighty worse than its forecast of 12.0 and prior reading of 14.1.

Oct 15 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 15 Oct 2009 06:59 AM PDT New Video Now Pending

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.15.2009 Posted: 15 Oct 2009 05:25 AM PDT Good Morning: The GBP jumped overnight as speculation that British policy makers will pause the asset-purchase program next month.  The GBP gained as investors also feel that the GBPs decline was overdone. The USD lost steam again overnight with the EUR/USD  pair hitting 1.4967. Asian equity markets were higher-Europe is mixed, and US Futures are pointing to a lower opening this morning. With the Dow jumping over 10k last night-eyes will be on the US opening. Oil:$75.04                               Gold:$1049.50 Today’s Data: CPI:                          exp: .2%             prior:.4% Jobless Claims:   exp: 520K        prior: 521K Empire Mfg:         exp: 17.5          prior: 18.88 Philly Fed:            exp: 12              prior: 14.1 HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Gbp/Jpy not far off from 200 day M/A Posted: 15 Oct 2009 03:07 AM PDT Gbp/Jpy has made a new high of 146.32 within last hour. Early in the session Gbp strength was the driver but more recently Usd/Jpy has made some nice gains , approximately 60 pips in last hour. The 200 day M/A does lie at 146.52. It may be point of resistance , or at least slow the pair down a bit. If it could hold we could see a retracement back down to 144.50 area.

Eur/Gbp continues lower Posted: 15 Oct 2009 02:43 AM PDT Eur/Gbp continues to trade lower as the pair is currently below .9200. Next level of support should be .9158 which was the low back on Oct. 8th. The ferocious selling of the pair has brought Eur/Usd down to 1.4911 and Gbp/Usd up to 1.6224, up nearly 150 pips on session.

Eur/Gbp trades down to 200 hour M/A Posted: 15 Oct 2009 12:35 AM PDT Eur/Gbp found some support at its 200 hour M/A of .9261 after breaking below the 100 hour M/A of  .9315. If the pair can hold above look for a partial retracement of this move, possibly to .9285-90 level. A break below could lead the pair down to .9215-20.

10-15 Economic Calendar Posted: 14 Oct 2009 08:56 PM PDT

Well Eur/Usd test the top of this channel and then break through? Posted: 14 Oct 2009 06:23 PM PDT After today’s comments from Aud RBA Gov Stevens making a strong statements about rasing rates the Aud/Usd started to continue its rally against the Usd which provided more momentum for the Eur/Usd to make new highs. Eur/Usd right now is getting close to the top of this channel see here on this chart which might provide some resistance on this long Eur/Usd run.

AUD/USD Hit New 2009 Highs Posted: 14 Oct 2009 05:43 PM PDT After positive comments from RBA Governor Stevens in Perth Australia (see prior post,) the AUD moved to new 2009 highs against the USD, with any significant resistance seemingly a big figure away. However, it has been some time since the pair has tested the daily trendline support that has been protecting the pairs appreciation since the middle of the summer.

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks in Perth Australia Posted: 14 Oct 2009 05:08 PM PDT The RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is speaking in Perth Australia, he had the following comments, which initially helped the AUD climb across the board: Cannot be too timid in raising interest rates, can’t hold rates low when it’s not required. Australian recovery is not “too strong.” Risks that prompted rate cuts did not materialize. Global economic outlook still uncertain. Greatest weakness in Australian economy has passed. The timing and pace of RBA rate hikes are an important judgment. Fiscal stimulus included in RBA GDP forecast. Government bank guarantees were necessary. Global economies are recovering. Doesn’t expect another global economic shock. Rising house prices wont spark rate rises. Increasing value of the AUD is due to sign of optimism in the economy, not surprising investors are keen to buy AUD. Doesn’t want to put a number on the neutral key rate. Australian rate cuts were “pretty powerful.”

Australian Inflation Expectation Posted: 14 Oct 2009 05:03 PM PDT The Australian Consumer Inflation Expectation for October came in flat month over month at 3.5%, the AUD popped up on the release, as RBA Governor Stevens speaks in Perth Australia.

New Zealand Economic Releases Posted: 14 Oct 2009 02:53 PM PDT The following economic releases all came out higher and the NZD /USD has rallied 60 pips from the close, dragging the rest of the market higher as well. The releases were as follows: Business PMI - Actual:51.7   Prior:48.7 Consumer Prices (QoQ) - Survey:0.8%   Actual:1.3%   Prior:0.6% Consumer Prices (YoY) - Survey:1.1%   Actual:1.7%   Prior:1.9%

October 14th 2009 Evening Forex Report is available for viewing Posted: 14 Oct 2009 02:01 PM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

USDCHF also tested key support, failed and bounced Posted: 14 Oct 2009 11:32 AM PDT The USDCHF moved through support at the 1.0135 level - reaching a low of 1.0128 - but like the EURUSD, was quickly reversed (see prior post).  The level continues as support now with another break needed to ignite further selling pressure in the pair.  It is not unusual for news to lead to a break/rebound.   In this case the Fed minutes led to a quick downward reaction for the dollar. However, when the additional selling did not materialize, the covering was underway.  Now that the market has digested the comments, the market is settling back into the pre-release rhythm.  Support is reestablished at 1.0135 and normal liquidity conditions are back.

Failing on the break…..EURUSD back down below 1.4932. Support 1.4897 now. Posted: 14 Oct 2009 11:16 AM PDT The EURUSD triggered stops above the 1.4932 level moving to a high of 1.4946, but  could not sustain the upside.  The move back below 1.4932 is a disappointment and we are seeing it in the price action (down to 1.4910 level). Resistance back in play from 1.4920 to 1.4932. Support at 1.4897 now. The GBPUSD also  is back down after moving to a new move high of 1.5999.  The price has moved back down to test the 100 bar MA support at 1.5972.  Watch this level  A move below would not be good for the pair.

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