Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- EURUSD holding the 1.4771 level as stock action settles in
- Oct 29 2009 Forex Market Update
- USDJPY jumps to topside resistance at 91.23/28 level
- EURUSD jumps above the 1.4771 level
- US GDP comes in better than expectations.
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.29.2009
- US GDP to dictate the direction today. Due out at 8:30 AM
- $GBPUSD corrects 50% of the move down at 1.6471
- ECB Weber/EUs Junker on the newswires
- Eurozone Consumer Confidence
- UK Net Lending to Individuals & Mortgage Approvals
- German Unemployment Change Better Than Expected
- 10-29 Economic Calendar
- Japan’s Industrial Production
| EURUSD holding the 1.4771 level as stock action settles in Posted: 29 Oct 2009 06:53 AM PDT
The stock market is now open 25 or so minutes and the gains have been pared a little with the Dow up 41 points. The EURUSD nevertheless remains above the key 1.4771 level which was the midpoint of the October high/low range. THIS level will be watched closely today with buyers against the level and sellers likely on a break. On the topside, the close from Tuesday came in at 1.4804. The market has stalled at this level. Better resistance comes in at the 1.4827 level (38.2% of the move down) and the 1.4840 level (a key retracement level on the way down). Pick low risk spots but expect further volatility for the morning with a large influence by the stocks. |
| Oct 29 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 29 Oct 2009 06:30 AM PDT |
| USDJPY jumps to topside resistance at 91.23/28 level Posted: 29 Oct 2009 05:58 AM PDT
The 200 hour MA is at 91.23. The 50% retracement is at 91.28. This level should slow the rise. The markets are still digesting the data this morning and the stock market reaction will be a big influence as well. A break above has the 91.52 as the next target (61.8% and 100 hour MA). |
| EURUSD jumps above the 1.4771 level Posted: 29 Oct 2009 05:50 AM PDT
This level was the midpoint of the move up from the October low to the October high. The level held support on the way down and broke below yesterday. The move above will be watched now. If the price can hold on a correction, the upside would next target 1.4827 and 1.4840 area. Look for good sellers against this level. |
| US GDP comes in better than expectations. Posted: 29 Oct 2009 05:32 AM PDT GDP up 3.5%. Better than expectations. Consumption rose by 3.4% also better than expected. Real GDP 3.5% Durable Goods purchases - up 22.3% - led the upside as the cash for clunker program kicked in and pared inventories. The change in inventories contributed 0.94% to the GDP. Exports subtracted -0.53%. Governement added 0.48% and Personal Consumption added 2.36% (motor vehicles added 1.01% for the quarter) and investment added 1.22% Initial Claims came in at 530K down from 531K last week. The Continuing Claims fell however to 5797 K from a revised 5,945K last month. Canada Industrial Production Prices fell 0.5% (vs -0.2%) while Raw Material Prices also was lower than expectations at -1.1% vs -0.5% expecations. |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.29.2009 Posted: 29 Oct 2009 05:18 AM PDT
The USD and JPY fell overnight ahead of this morning’s GDP data. Asian and European equity markets were lower. US Futures are looking positive for this morning’s opening. Oil:$77.76 Gold:$1034.50 Today’s data: Havae a GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
| US GDP to dictate the direction today. Due out at 8:30 AM Posted: 29 Oct 2009 05:17 AM PDT
The US GDP will be released at 8:30 and set the tone for the day. The expectation is for a rise of 3.2% annualized. The way the number is reported, the quarterly change from the prior quarter is annualized. So a quarter on quarter gain of 0.8% may be annualized to a 3.2% annualized rate. Within the report Personal Consumption is expected to rise by 3.1% after a decline of -0.9% last quarter. This was boosted by things such as the cash for clunker program over the quarter. The GDP was also boosted last quarter by an increase in government spending and other stimulative measures especially in the housing sector. Note this is the first cut of the report and as such has some estimates of data which have yet to be released or are likely to be revised. Typically a better number should benefit the stock market and in turn hurt the dollar. THe opposite would be true for a worse than expected number. Be careful however, that a weaker number may be interpretted as a delay in Fed policy change which would allow companies to continue to benefit from lower rates. In other words, expect anything. The story after will fit the market move. Buyers and sellers will decide the direction. So watch the charts for clues. When a key piece of economic data is released often the volatility increases. As a result, so does risk in trading. Therefore it is advised to be cautious and lessen positions if you do not feel comfortable with the risk.
Key levels to watch for the EURUSD, on the topside a move above the 1.4771 would be a positive development and would target a move to 1.4827 area. On the downside a break below the 1.4702 level should target lower levels for the pair (1.4673 the next target).
For the GBPUSD watch the 1.6483 level on the upside. With a break targeting the 1.6524 level. On the downside, the 1.6419 level is support (200 hour MA). Remember the 1.6362 level (100 day MA today).
For the USDJPY a break above the 90.92 level would be a good sign (back in the hourly channel). 91.23 is the next upside target. On the downside, 90.16 is the midpoint of the move up from the October low. |
| $GBPUSD corrects 50% of the move down at 1.6471 Posted: 29 Oct 2009 04:38 AM PDT
The GBPUSD has been the favored currency over the last few days, rising to the midpoint of the move down from Friday’s weak GDP day. The midpoint comes in at the 1.6471 the high for the day extended to the 1.6476 level. The September Mortgage Approvals were higher than expectations coming in at the 56.2K level versus expectations of 53.6K and up from 53K last month. This was the highest level in 18 months.
From a technical basis, the 1.6471 level will continue as upside resistance. A break of the level will next target the 1.6524 level which is the 61.8% of the move down. On the downside look for some small initial support at the 1.6443 level. A move back through the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (currently at 1.6410 and rising ), should signal a move down toward the closing level from yesterday at 1.6372. REMEMBER the 100 day MA is 1.6362. Next week the BOE meets and at that time they will decide whether to expand the 175 billion pound QE program. The odds are pointing for a continuation in a close decision. |
| ECB Weber/EUs Junker on the newswires Posted: 29 Oct 2009 04:18 AM PDT Say that they may look to stop 12 month loans next year. In addition EUs Junker is also speaking and he is commenting how the the EURO overvaluation hurts exports but that he is not all that worried about the level. Like comments from Noyer yesterday, he also warns that the Chinese has to change thier attitude which is in reference to a fixed exchange rate to the US dollar. As the dollar has fallen so has the Yuan and the Yuans decline vs the EURO is hurting their exports. |
| Posted: 29 Oct 2009 03:05 AM PDT Eurozone Consumer Confidence came in at -18, slightly weaker than the -17 forecasted, but slightly stronger than the -19 prior reading. |
| UK Net Lending to Individuals & Mortgage Approvals Posted: 29 Oct 2009 02:38 AM PDT UK Net Lending to Individuals came in at 7B asexpected. Mortgage Aprrovals came in at 56,215, better than the 53,600 forecasted.. Good number for the British Pound which has made gains most of the session. Not sure if this number will have that big of an impact based on current level of Gbp. Currently Gbp/Usd trades at 1.6430, Gbp/Jpy at 149.10, Eur/Gbp at .8980 and Gbp/Chf at 1.6825. |
| German Unemployment Change Better Than Expected Posted: 29 Oct 2009 02:04 AM PDT German Unemployment Change came in at -26,000, better than the 17,000 expected. The unemployment rate fell to 8.1% , better than the 8.35 expected and 8.2% prior reading. |
| Posted: 28 Oct 2009 08:51 PM PDT
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| Posted: 28 Oct 2009 05:11 PM PDT The Yen gained a bid on the back of a better than expected September Industrial Production reading. The release was as follows: Industrial Production (MoM) - Survey:1.0% Actual:1.4% Prior:1.6% Industrial Production (YoY) - Survey:-19.3% Actual:-18.9% Prior:-19.0% |
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