Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- EURUSD breaks lower
- IBD and TIPP Economic Optimism Index falls
- EURUSD moves down toward support at the 1.4813-19 level. Watching 1.4844 above.
- Oct 13 2009 Forex Market Update
- Canadian New Home Prices rise 0.1%. A touch worse than expected. Watching 1.0296 support in $USDCAD
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.13.2009
- $USDCHF tests 2009 lows at 1.0188 and moves back higher. Watch 1.0224
- $EURUSD trading near target highs (1.4866). Next target area 1.4925. Support 1.4844 and 1.4819 area.
- German ZEW Survey
- Eur/Gbp at highest level since March
- UK Economic Data
- Swiss PPI
- 10-13 Economic Calendar
- NZ Finance Minister English
| Posted: 13 Oct 2009 07:05 AM PDT Falls below the 100 bar MA at 1.4810. Look for resistance against 1.4819 now. A break below 1.4794 is the next step. The close from yesterday was 1.4773. Keep these levels in mind. |
| IBD and TIPP Economic Optimism Index falls Posted: 13 Oct 2009 07:03 AM PDT The index came in 48.7 vs 52.5 last month and expectation of 52.5. Economic outlook component fell to 49.7 from 53.7. The Personal Financial Outlook fell to 54.2 from 57.0 and the Federal Policies fell to 42.1 from 46.6. All are disappointing. |
| EURUSD moves down toward support at the 1.4813-19 level. Watching 1.4844 above. Posted: 13 Oct 2009 06:53 AM PDT
The 1.4844 level was breached and the move to the next target ensued (click here for prior post). The price moved down to test the support at the 1.4813 -19 area (low 1.4814) and has bounced. Going forward, look for sellers on corrective move highers against a stop above the 1.4844 level now. A break of the 1.4813 level finds additional support close by at the 100 bar MA at the 1.4808 level. So good support remains on the downside. Be patient. Watch the key levels. Use the key levels as low risk trade levels. Selling against > 1.4844 stop. Buying against a stop below the 100 bar MA is the preferred trade. |
| Oct 13 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 13 Oct 2009 06:30 AM PDT |
| Canadian New Home Prices rise 0.1%. A touch worse than expected. Watching 1.0296 support in $USDCAD Posted: 13 Oct 2009 05:39 AM PDT
The USDCAD continued to make new lows as a lower dollar leads to higher oil and commodities which buoys the commodity currencies. The pair moved below the September 21st 2008 lows of 1.0296 (new low of 1.0265). However, profit takers have entered the market and moved the price back above this support level. The price is testing the intraday 38.2% retracement of the move down today at the 1.0305 level. The next topside resistance comes in at the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart which is currently at the 1.0323 level (and moving lower).
Watch support at 1.0296. With the slightly weaker than expected data, perhaps there may be some short covering for the pair today. A bounce off this level would be a clue. If the price is able to move through the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart further gains can be anticipated with a test of the close from yesterday at 1.0346 the next stop. A move below 1.0296 would likely lead to lower levels or further consolidation today. |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.13.2009 Posted: 13 Oct 2009 05:31 AM PDT
I have returned from sunny and hot Kuwait. The USD slid to it’s weakest level in over 1 year. Demand for the USD as a refuge seems to be declining. With the ever increasing budget deficit continuing to climb to record amounts, and the US spending it’s way out of the recession-the greenback is being undermined. Near zero interest rates, and slow growth, and the rising budget deficit the appeal of the USD is waning as investors look for higher yielding assets elsewhere. Asian equity markets were higher, Europe is mixed at this time and US Futures are slightly higher at this time. Oil:$74.22 Gold:$1066.30 HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK The Kuwait Traders Expo was a great success-and we thank our present and future clients for their continued support. The weather in New York is a fall like 60 degrees-and the average temperature during the day in Kuwait was 100 degrees F-so a bit of a temperature shock also. |
| $USDCHF tests 2009 lows at 1.0188 and moves back higher. Watch 1.0224 Posted: 13 Oct 2009 05:23 AM PDT
The USDCHF is tested the 2009 low at 1.0188 and found the expected profit takers. The price reached a low price of 1.0192. The 2009 low came in on September 23rd. A break of the low will next target the 1.0111/20 area where trendline support (channel support) and where a low from June 2008 is found.
On the topside, the 1.0224 level is the 38.2% retracement level. Above that look for the 1.0235 level to provide intraday resistance (see chart below). |
| $EURUSD trading near target highs (1.4866). Next target area 1.4925. Support 1.4844 and 1.4819 area. Posted: 13 Oct 2009 04:54 AM PDT
The EURUSD moved through 2009 highs and is testing the next target at 1.4866 (see post from yesterday). The high reached 1.4873 but the price has come back down. The 1.4866 is the high price going back to the week of September 21st, 2008. The next level of congestive resistance comes in at the 1.4921-51 area where old highs are located and topside trendline is currently located (at 1.4925).
On the downside, the support comes in at the 1.4844 level now. The correction off the high came down to the 1.4846 level. Below that 1.4813-19 where old highs from last week/yesterday and the 50% retracement of the days range is currently found. The move higher is came despite lower ZEW survey out of the Eurozone and Germany. In the EUROZONE, the ZEW came in at 56.9 vs 61.2. The German ZEW came in at 56.0 vs 58.8. The dollar selling is a continuation of the worries in the US. Rumblings about another wave of bank problems are being chatted about. Thought that US rates are staying low for quite some time and Fed Purchases are also pressuring. Gold is at new records. All is piling on to cause the dollar selling. Watch technical levels. |
| Posted: 13 Oct 2009 02:04 AM PDT German ZEW Survey measuring economic sentiment came in at 56.0, weaker than the 58.8 expected and 57.7 prior reading. Eur/Usd is off about 15 pips down to 1.4772 on the news. |
| Eur/Gbp at highest level since March Posted: 13 Oct 2009 01:53 AM PDT Eur/Gbp has traded up to .9408, its highest level since March 27th of this year, following some negative CPI data out of the UK. We may see some pullback as .9414 (high from March 27th) may act as a resistance point for the pair.
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| Posted: 13 Oct 2009 01:38 AM PDT UK CPI m/m came in at 0.0%, weaker than the 0.3% expected. Y/y came in at 1.1%, weaker than the 1.3% expected. Retail price index came in at 215.3, inline with expectations. RPI m/m came in at 0.4%, stronger than the 0.3% expected. Y/y came in at -1.4%, stronger than the -1.5% expected. DCLG house prices came in at -5.6%, weaker than the -4.9% expected. Overall not encouraging numbers out of the UK. Sterling had sold off prior to release of data as trader talk suggested a possible leak of info. Gbp/Usd is trading close to session lows at 1.5733. |
| Posted: 13 Oct 2009 12:19 AM PDT Swiss PPI m/m came in at 0.2%, stronger than the 0.1% expected. Y/y came in as expected at -4.9%. No major market effect as numbers were relatively flat. Eur/Chf currently trades at 1.5172 and Usd/Chf at 1.0270, both close to high of very tight trading range. |
| Posted: 12 Oct 2009 08:34 PM PDT
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| Posted: 12 Oct 2009 07:16 PM PDT New Zealand’s Finance Minister English had the following comments:
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Good Morning:
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