Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- US Leading Index rise for the 6th straight month but the Home Price Index falls.
- NY morning is choppy. Market is searching for direction. Watching 1.4978 in the EURUSD.
- Oct 22 2009 Forex Market Update
- Next FXDD Online Training Thursday, Oct 22 2009 4pm
- $GBPUSD corrects from lows but resistance at 1.6566 now
- US Initial Claims rise to 531K. Continuing Claims fall
- EURUSD corrects to the 100 hour MA support level
- Dollar moves higher overnight.
- Feds Rosengren is speaking. Later Initial Claims and Canada Retail Sales dominate.
- UK Retail Sales off
- Swiss Trade Balance
- Usd/Jpy above Oct. 16 high
- 10-22 Economic Calendar
- China’s Q3 GDP & September Industrial Production
- Japan’s September Trade Balance
| US Leading Index rise for the 6th straight month but the Home Price Index falls. Posted: 22 Oct 2009 07:05 AM PDT The US Leading Index came in at +1.0. This is the 6th increase in a row for the series. Below is the contributions to the better than expected US Leading Index: Average workweek -0.06%
Meanwhile the Housing Price index fell by-0.3% vs a expected gain of 0.3%. |
| NY morning is choppy. Market is searching for direction. Watching 1.4978 in the EURUSD. Posted: 22 Oct 2009 06:52 AM PDT
The EURUSD has been chopping around this morning. As per the prior post (CLICK HERE) the 1.5016 level (close from yesterday) is providing upside resistance. The downside found support against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and this should provide some support. The stock market is off to a quiet opening +13. Gold is down $9 which should be bullish for the dollar. Crude Oil is also down a bit. A move below the 100 bar MA at the 1.4978 should solicit some selling but not sure of the market resolve. |
| Oct 22 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 22 Oct 2009 06:32 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. FXDD invites you to participate as an attendee in the following free online training session today: Topic: FXDD Online Training Oct 22 2009 4pm ——————————————————- Once you are approved by the host, you will receive a confirmation email with instructions for joining the session. |
| Next FXDD Online Training Thursday, Oct 22 2009 4pm Posted: 22 Oct 2009 05:45 AM PDT NOTE: PLEASE DO NOT POST IN COMMENTARY ASKING TO BE ADDED. YOU NEED TO SIGN UP HERE. THANKS FXDD invites you to participate as an attendee in the following free online training session: Topic: FXDD Online Training Oct 22 2009 4pm ——————————————————- Once you are approved by the host, you will receive a confirmation email with instructions for joining the session. |
| $GBPUSD corrects from lows but resistance at 1.6566 now Posted: 22 Oct 2009 05:43 AM PDT
The GBPUSD moved down off a triple top at the 1.6633-37. The failure to extend the gains led to profit taking which saw the price move down to the midpoint of the last move up from the low on October 20th to the high reached today. That level came in at 1.6483. The low reached 1.6486. The correction higher has extended to a high of 1.6579. The 1.6589 level where the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (green line in chart above) provided a technical level to sell against. The level also corresponds with the high close that contained most of the summer trading market (see chart below) . On the topside look for resistanace at the 1.6566 level this morning. This is the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. A move above should target 1.6589 where the market will need to make a decision - does it go higher or correct back down. ON the downside look for support at 1.6519 and 1.6483.
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| US Initial Claims rise to 531K. Continuing Claims fall Posted: 22 Oct 2009 05:36 AM PDT The Initial Claims came in at 531K from a revised 520K. The Continuing Claims fell to 5923 from a revised 6021K last week. The data suggests that the employment situation still remains weak although better. This is a disappointment. The Canada Retail Sales were stronger than expected at +0.8% vs +0.4% exp. The Ex Auto value showed a gain of 0.5% vs 0.6% expectations. Gasoline station sales were up 3.9% because of higher prices and car dealer sales rose by 2.2% (Total Automotive including parts rose by +2.4%). Automotive + 2.4% |
| EURUSD corrects to the 100 hour MA support level Posted: 22 Oct 2009 05:18 AM PDT
The EURUSD sold off overnight but found support against the 100 hour MA at the 1.4942 level. The low reached 1.4944. Additional support came in against the 50% retracement level at the 1.4940 level.
The markets has moved up since finding the support and is back up testing the 1.5000 level. The price has moved back above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart currently at the 1.4978 level. This will be the intraday support level today. The price is also back above the 200 bar MA at the 1.4995. Aggresive buyers could buy against this level (10 pip stop). On the topside, watch the close from yesterday at the 1.5016 level initially. The market high yesteday reached 1.5046. There is additional upside target resistance at the 1.5073/83 area. These are old low/high levels going back to 2008. Overall, the move back higher off the key support is positive for the pair. The EURUSD is getting a boost from some better earnings in the US this morning. |
| Dollar moves higher overnight. Posted: 22 Oct 2009 05:06 AM PDT The dollar moved higher overnight. China’s GDP was a touch lower than expectations. The rumored Industrial production (rumored to be up 14.1%) was higher at +13.9% but not as high as the rumor circulated. Retail Sales rose by 15.5% whicch was as expected. In the UK, their Retail Sales were released and they can out weaker than expectations at 0.0% vs expectations of 0.6%. There was also The Trade Balance in Switzerland came out better than expectations at +1.92B vs expectations of a surplus of 1.59B. Although not confirmed there was some grumbling about SNB intervention. This was unconfirmed. The CHF did weaken (the SNB would have been selling if they were indeed in the market) but the currency has since stengthend. The Dow Futures are showing little change. European stock markets are down with the UK FTSE down -56 (-1.07%)and the German Dax showing a decline of -79 (-1.36%) |
| Feds Rosengren is speaking. Later Initial Claims and Canada Retail Sales dominate. Posted: 22 Oct 2009 04:44 AM PDT Says that the dollars moves are natural and that he hopes the MBS purchases will end by the end of the 1st quarter of 2010 as the economic recovery takes hold. Today, we get the weekly US Initial Claims data at 8:30 and US Leading Index at 10:00 AM. The US House Price Index will also be released at 10:00 AM. In Canada Retail Sales will be released at 8:30. Below is the estimates for each.
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| Posted: 22 Oct 2009 01:38 AM PDT UK Retails Sales m/m came in at 0.0%, weaker than the 0.5% expected Y/y came in at 2.4%, weaker than the 2.8% expected. Gbp sold off across the board on bad retail sales figures. Gbp/Usd lost 70 pips trading down to 1.6500, Gbp/Jpy traded down to 150.70 , losing 70 pips and Eur/Gbp gained about 20 pips to .9055. Currently Gbp/Usd trades at 1.6510, Gbp/Jpy at 150.90 and Eur/Gbp at .9052. |
| Posted: 21 Oct 2009 11:28 PM PDT Swiss Trade Balance came in at 1.92B, stronger than the 1.59B expected and the 1.72B prior reading. Positive number for CHF , but not much markert reaction. Usd/Chf is still trading near session highs at 1.0080 and Eur/Chf at 1.5105. This limited market reaction could be due to market rumors of possible intervention from the Swiss National Bank. They have been notorious sellers of there own currency. These are rumors only. |
| Posted: 21 Oct 2009 11:24 PM PDT Usd/Jpy has broke above Oct 16th high of 91.31. Next level of resistance should come in at 91.63 which was high from Sept. 23rd. If the pair retraces support should come in at 91.07 which was an earlier breakout point. The fprmer scenario seems more likely. |
| Posted: 21 Oct 2009 09:04 PM PDT
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| China’s Q3 GDP & September Industrial Production Posted: 21 Oct 2009 07:02 PM PDT The following economic data from China was released relatively as expected and the USD gained a short lived bid against the risk and commodity pairs as most currencies continue to range throughout the Asian session: Real GDP (YoY) - Survey:9.0% Actual:8.9% Prior:7.9% GDP (YTD) - Actual:- Prior:7.1% Producer Price Index (YoY) - Survey:-7.4% Actual:-7.0% Prior:-7.9% Industrial Production (YoY) - Survey:13.2% Actual:13.9 Prior:12.3% Industrial Production (YTD) - Survey:8.6% Actual:8.7 Prior:8.1% |
| Japan’s September Trade Balance Posted: 21 Oct 2009 04:53 PM PDT The Japanese Trade Balance for September was released worse than expected, but to little market reaction, as the Yen and other currencies range early in Asian trading: Merchandise Trade Balance - Survey:620.8B Actual:520.6 Prior:185.7 Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance - Survey:375B Actual:58.6 Prior:235.4 Merchandise Trade Exports - Survey:-29.7 Actual:-30.7 Prior:-36 Merchandise Trade Imports - Survey:-38 Actual:-36.9 Prior:-41.3 |
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