Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- New Home Annualized sales level is worse than expectations. Sends EURUSD and GBPUSD back to support at 1.4771 and 1.6362
- VideoOct 28 Forex Market Update
- $EURUSD tests upside resistance at 1.4806
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.28.2009
- FXDD Online Training Thurs Oct 29 2009 4pm
- Durable Goods come in as expected.
- $EURJPY tests 134.84 after moving through the level in London morning.
- Durable Goods and New Home Sales due at 8:30 and 10:00
- GBPUSD continues move to the downside. Watch 1.6316 as upside resistance.
- $EURUSD moving through the 1.4771 support level.
- AUDUSD tests the 38.2% retracement support level at 0.9037
- German Import Prices
- 10-28 Economic Calendar
- NBNZ Business Confidence
| Posted: 28 Oct 2009 07:03 AM PDT The New Home Sales came in at 402K vs 440K expectations. The prior month was revised to 417K from 429K last month. The Month supply of homes came in unchanged at 7.5 months This is down from 10.4 months a year ago which is good news, but the fall is disconcerting. The EURUSD is back down testing the 1.4771. Look for some support against the level. Meanwhile the GBPUSD has moved down to the 100 day MA at the 1.6362 as that currency pair continues to trade in a volatile fashion. |
| VideoOct 28 Forex Market Update Posted: 28 Oct 2009 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. FXDD Free Online Training Next Class Thursday Oct 29 2009 4pm New York Time SIGN UP HERE Note: The training takes place at FXDD.webex.com, you must sign in there at 4pm on the day of training. Thanks ———————————————- |
| $EURUSD tests upside resistance at 1.4806 Posted: 28 Oct 2009 05:52 AM PDT Watch the 1.4806 level. The level is where the 100 and 200 bar MA come in on the 5 minute chart. The Durable Goods data did not surprise on the downside and this keeps the GDP big up number tomorrow in tact. This is leading to a profit taking bid. Watch resistance. |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.28.2009 Posted: 28 Oct 2009 05:49 AM PDT Good Morning: Speculation that central banks are beginning to make preperations to withdraw economic stimulus packages helped the JPY rise, as demand for higher yielding assets wanes. World equity markets fell, as disappointing earnings from SAP to Cannon added to stocks woes. US Futures are lower this morning. Oil:$$79.05 Gold:$1034.00 Durable Good prints at 1%–as expected. Haave a GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK
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| FXDD Online Training Thurs Oct 29 2009 4pm Posted: 28 Oct 2009 05:34 AM PDT
FXDD Free Online Training Next Class Thursday Oct 29 2009 4pm New York Time SIGN UP HERE Note: The training takes place at FXDD.webex.com, you must sign in there at 4pm on the day of training. Thanks ———————————————- |
| Durable Goods come in as expected. Posted: 28 Oct 2009 05:31 AM PDT The Headline came in at +1.0% but the revision was lowered to -2.6% from -2.4%. The Ex Transportation value came in at +0.9% with a revision to -0.4% from 0.0% last month. Military aircraft led the transportation increase of 1.1%. The commercial planes and automobiles declined. Orders for non defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, fell by 0.2%. This is the measure used to calculate GDP and for the quarter the category showed a decline of -1.9%, but this was up sharply from a -14% plunge in the 2nd quarter. This will therefore contribute on a QoQ basis. Tomorrow GDP for the 3rd quarter is expected to show a 3.2% gain on an annualized basis. The improvement is a bounceback from the 2nd quarter losses. Although the 3.2% gains is a marked improvement, the calculations annualized the QoQ gain to an annualized rate. As a result, a gain off a low level can be a bit misleading. The report did not surprise to the downside. As a result, the market is finding profit taking buyers. GBPUSD has moved back above the 1.6316 resistance level and the EURUSD is back above the 1.4771. Watch these levels on the downside to now provide intraday support. |
| $EURJPY tests 134.84 after moving through the level in London morning. Posted: 28 Oct 2009 05:26 AM PDT
Yesterday we targetted the 134.84 level as target support (CLICK HERE FOR THE POST). Overnight the price 1st tested the level, bounced and then fell through the level to a new low of 134.35. The price is now back up testing the 134.84 level. Of course the economic data at 8:30 will have an influence with weaker data likely to continue the decline and stronger number starting a further upside correction. Be on alert. |
| Durable Goods and New Home Sales due at 8:30 and 10:00 Posted: 28 Oct 2009 05:13 AM PDT Below are the expectations for the respective releases.
A weaker number should continue the dollar buying. A stronger number should lead to dollar selling. Earlier today the Mortgage Applications fell by 12.3% after a -13.7% decline last week. The Purchase index fell by another -5.2%. This is after a -7.6% decline last week and a -5% decline the prior week. The Refinance Index fell by -16.2% for the week after an equally as sharp -16.8% decline last week. YoY, however, the refinance index is up 58% thanks to low mortgage rates. The average rate for a 30 year mortgage fell to 5.04% from 5.07% last week. |
| GBPUSD continues move to the downside. Watch 1.6316 as upside resistance. Posted: 28 Oct 2009 04:50 AM PDT
The GBPUSD has broken below the two day modest uptrend line at the 1..6328. It has also moved below the 38.2% retracement level of the move up from the October low of 1.5706. The level comes in at 1.6316 and will now be upside resistance for the pair. If the pair should move back above this level, we should see the pair move back up to the 1.6333 level. The next downside target comes in at 1.6250 and below that the 1.6200 level.
Longer term, the GBPUSD has moved away from 100 day MA at the 1.6362 level and should start to put some room between the MA level (1.6362) and the price. The 1.6112/18 area has had some recent lows/highs and should slow a decline. Below that is the 38.2% of the move up for 2009 which has seen the price move from a low of 1.3502 to a high of 1.7041. This level comes in at the 1.5689. The low this month came in at 1.5706 as early buyers came in against the level. |
| $EURUSD moving through the 1.4771 support level. Posted: 28 Oct 2009 04:27 AM PDT
The 1.4771 level is the 50% retracement level of the move up from the October 2nd low to the high this week. Yesterday the price stalled at this level (well 1.4770) . Today,the low has reached 1.4773 so far. A break should lead to lower levels for the pair, with the next stops. Overnight, the high reached the 1.4840 level. The significance of that level? It was the 38.2% retracement of the same move from October 2nd and the level that caused a gap move yesterday on the break to the downside. The next target is the 1.4741 level for the pair which is the trendline support off the daily chart below. The level after that is the 61.8% retracement level for the pair at 1.4702 (see hourly chart above).
Longer term for the EURUSD it is important to target possible levels. Off the summer low price of 1.3748, the 38.2% retracement support comes in at the 1.4560 level. Although this level is a ways off (and the reaching of the level is contingent on the pair remaining bearish on the short term and intermediate charts) , this is a modest longer term correction of the move up since the summer. Below that level is the other support at 1.4405 and below that trendline support and 100 day moving average support at the 1.4359 area. |
| AUDUSD tests the 38.2% retracement support level at 0.9037 Posted: 28 Oct 2009 04:07 AM PDT
As per yesterdays post (CLICK HERE), the 0.9037 level in the AUDUSD is the 38.2% retracement support for the pair. The market just dipped to the level and has bounced modestly. Look for buyers against the level with stops on a move below. |
| Posted: 28 Oct 2009 12:02 AM PDT German Import Prices m/m came in at -0.9%, weaker than the -0.7% expected. This number though unfavorable for the Euro should have minimal market impact. eur/Usd currently trades at high of session 1.4840. |
| Posted: 27 Oct 2009 08:52 PM PDT
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| Posted: 27 Oct 2009 07:15 PM PDT The New Zealand Business Confidence for October was released slightly lower than the prior month at 48.2 versus 49.1 and Business Conditions had a reading of 30.5. The Kiwi had a positive reaction to this report moving off the lower part of its daily trading range. The pair has hit some resistance at the 21 hour moving average, which had supported that the pair throughout the NY trading day.
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