Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• October 30th 2009 Morning Forex Report
• US data as expected. Canadian GDP for August lower than expectations
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.30.2009
• $USDJPY approaches upside resistance starting at 91.31
• Live Training Re-broadcast from Thursday Oct 29 2009
• GBPUSD contained by channel. Looking for directional break as the week comes to a close.
• EURUSD moves lower as NY enters. Moves away from 100 hour MA/Fibo retracement level.
• $EURCHF soars then comes down on invervention rumblings
• Today’s Economic Data
• Eurozone Unemployment
• UK Nationwide HPI
• German Retail Sales
• 10-30 Economic Calendar
• Treasury Secretary Geithner on the Wires
• Aussie Private Sector Credit

October 30th 2009 Morning Forex Report Posted: 30 Oct 2009 06:52 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

US data as expected. Canadian GDP for August lower than expectations Posted: 30 Oct 2009 05:46 AM PDT The 8:30 in the US came in more less as expected. The Personal Income and Spending was a touch higher but in line.  In Canada, the GDP fell by -0.1% for the month versus an expectation of +0.1%.  Absent a US reaction to their data, the USDCAD has taken the opportunity to move sharply higher. The pair is approaching retracement resistance at the 1.0785 level.  A move above this level will next target the highs for the week at the 1.0820 level.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.30.2009 Posted: 30 Oct 2009 05:39 AM PDT Good Morning: The JPY was the overall winner in overnight trading.  Concerns that worldwide central banks are moving to quickly to discontinue the stimulus packages put into place to combat the global economic recession caused nervousness in the market place.  The main question being discussed by economists is if the recession is really over or not. Equity marksets are mixed, and US Futures lower this morning. Consumer spending fell in Sept, after the “cash for clunkers” rebate program ended. Oil:$79.35                         Gold:$1043.40 HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND and GOOD LUCK

$USDJPY approaches upside resistance starting at 91.31 Posted: 30 Oct 2009 05:33 AM PDT The 200 and 100 hour moving averages (green and blue line in the chart above), come in at the 91.31 and 91.41 level currently.  Look for these levels to provide upside resistance for the USDJPY today.  A break to the top side would target good resistance at 91.72 where the low from July and the 38.2% retracement of the move down from July is found. On the downside, look for support at the 91.01 level where the 100 bar MA is found on the 5 minute chart.  90.91 and 90.75 are further intraday support levels for today.

Live Training Re-broadcast from Thursday Oct 29 2009 Posted: 30 Oct 2009 05:30 AM PDT Watch the re-broadcast here from Thursday Oct 29 2009 HERE Also if you attended, and have not done so, please complete the survey. Thanks Greg and Shawn Next Training on Tuesday Nov 3 2009 4pm

GBPUSD contained by channel. Looking for directional break as the week comes to a close. Posted: 30 Oct 2009 05:19 AM PDT The GBPUSD remains contained with a flag formation developing. The bottom trendline comes in at 1.6506.  The topside comes in at the 1.6568 level currently.  This is normally a bullish formation,however, I would prefer to see which trendline is broken.  In between traders can play the range by buying against the support and selling against the resistance.  A break should lead to further momentum in the direction of the break.  The downside target comes in at the 1.6468  then 1.6443 (200 hour MA - green line in the chart above). A break on the topside will look toward the  1.6600 area as the 1st target with additional resistance at 1.6620.

EURUSD moves lower as NY enters. Moves away from 100 hour MA/Fibo retracement level. Posted: 30 Oct 2009 04:57 AM PDT The EURUSD moved lower as the NY entered.  The price move has taken the pair below the 1.4828 level where the 38.2% retracement and the 100 hour MA was located.  The price has been moving above and below this level for most of the day and this is the latest break.  Even though the moves today have not developed into a sustained trend, the longer a price stays around a key level without making a firm directional move, the more likely a move is forthcoming.  This break lower has extended to new lows and looks toward the next target at the 1.4771 level. This level is the midpoint of the October high low range (the month ends today). Look for sellers against a stop above the 100 hour MA.

$EURCHF soars then comes down on invervention rumblings Posted: 30 Oct 2009 04:47 AM PDT Note, however, that there is a separate newswire report that no intervention has been seen.  The EURCHF shot up from a low of 1.5081 to a high of 1.5173 but has since moved back down to 1.5130 area.  The  pair remains near the midpoint of the range deemed to be neutral by the Swiss National Bank (1.5000 to 1.5300 range).  If the pair wanders down toward the base, there is likely to be the rumblings.  Today’s low may have been low enough to warrant a response (despite the dealer denials).  Note however, that each time the central bank has come in, the gains tend to be short lived and with the decline back down today, the pattern seems to be the same. By the way, the price peaked at the 100 day MA, which is more or less flatlined at the 1.5171 level (high 1.5173)

Today’s Economic Data Posted: 30 Oct 2009 04:39 AM PDT In addition to the above schedule, the White House will release a report on the economic stimulus.  The report will highlight how 1 million job losses were saved.  The GDP rebound for the 3rd quarter is proof of it. The problem is that millions have lost their jobs  and the question becomes is there enough stimulus given the headwinds from job losses to continue the trend and probably just importantly, the people who are working will their confidence in the economy continue. Much is dependent on housing still. Much is dependent on things like the stock market.  Much will be dependent on how everyone else is feeling.  Even though millions have lost jobs, there still are many more who have kept their jobs.  Where all have suffered is in the wealth from decline home prices.  This has effected everyone and may keep the dollars in the pockets rather than out being spent during the Holiday Season.

Eurozone Unemployment Posted: 30 Oct 2009 03:08 AM PDT Eurozone Unemployment Rate came in at 9.7%, inline with estimates and up0.1% from last months 9.6% reading. Though the unemployment rate increased Eur/Usd and Eur/Gbp were both bought up a bit on release. Eur/Usd is up 10 pips to 1.4842 and Eur/Gbp traded up to .8985 and has now settled back to .8975.

UK Nationwide HPI Posted: 30 Oct 2009 12:05 AM PDT UK Nationwide HPI m/m came in at 0.4%, weaker than the 0.7% expected. Sterling is relatively unchanged after release, trading at 1.6535.

German Retail Sales Posted: 30 Oct 2009 12:03 AM PDT German Retail Sales m/m came in at -0.5%, weaker than the 1.0% expected. Y/y came in at -3.9%, weaker than the -2.2 expected. Not good numbers  for Euro. eur/Usd has lost 10 pips since release, currently trading at 1.4825.

10-30 Economic Calendar Posted: 29 Oct 2009 08:42 PM PDT

Treasury Secretary Geithner on the Wires Posted: 29 Oct 2009 06:18 PM PDT Speaking at the Economic Club Dinner in Chicago, Secretary Geithner made the following comments: The U.S. GDP report today was ” very encouraging”. U.S financial system and economy are “stable”. The U.S. needs more investment and export-led growth. It is important to see more private demand lead growth. He sees a “remarkable” improvement in confidence in the U.S. We need to “lead against” the “financial headwinds”. There is still “uncertainty” facing the U.S. economy.

Aussie Private Sector Credit Posted: 29 Oct 2009 05:34 PM PDT The AUD sold off slightly following the worse than expected release of Australia’s Private Sector Credit for the month of September. The details of that release are as follows: Private Sector Credit (MoM) - Survey: 0.2%   Actual: -0.2%  Prior: 0.1% Private Sector Credit (YoY) - Survey: 2.0%   Actual: 1.7%   Prior: 2.5%

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