Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- EURUSD chops around between support at 1.4716 and resistance at 1.4735
- Oct 9 2009 Forex Market Update
- $EURUSD tests 1.4719 level. Additional support against 100 hour MA at the 1.4716
- $USDJPY moves toward resistance at the 89.06/10 level
- US Trade Deficit comes in at -30.7 billion. Better than expected
- EURUSD rebounds after testing the 100 hour MA overnight
- USDCAD move lower on better Employment data
- Canadian Unemployment figures better than expected
- Gbp/Usd sent below 100 and 200 hour M/A
- UK PPI & Trade Balance better than expectations
- German Trade Balance less than expected
- 10-9 Economic Calendar
- Japanese Core Machine Orders
- Bernanke Speaks in Washington
- Oct 8 2009 Forex Evening Report
| EURUSD chops around between support at 1.4716 and resistance at 1.4735 Posted: 09 Oct 2009 06:53 AM PDT
The EURUSD had a shallow correction to the 1.4733 level and moved back lower. The price dipped back down to test the 1.4716 level once again reaching a low of 1.4713. The price however, has rebounded back higher.
The price is now back up testing intraday resistance at 1.4735. Clearly, the market is in a tug a war mode with support below against the 100 hour MA and intraday resistance against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (at 1.4735). Expect volatile conditions to continue. |
| Oct 9 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 09 Oct 2009 06:45 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. The market is reversing the lower dollar trends from the past few days. |
| $EURUSD tests 1.4719 level. Additional support against 100 hour MA at the 1.4716 Posted: 09 Oct 2009 06:06 AM PDT
The EURUSD is testing the 1.4716 /19 support target. This is where the 100 hour MA (1.4716) and the December 2008 high price which has been a magnet for the pair. A move below these levels, next targets the 1.4688 level for the pair (38.2% retracement in the chart above) . Look for profit takers against the level 1.4716 level, but sellers should be against the 1.4735 on a corrective move higher. So watch for a shallow correction. Alternatively a break below the 1.4716 level should solicit additional selling pressure on the pair. |
| $USDJPY moves toward resistance at the 89.06/10 level Posted: 09 Oct 2009 05:50 AM PDT
The USDJPY has moved back higher after correcting in London. The pair is looking to test the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 89.06 level. There is additional resistance from a floor earlier today at the 89.10. Look for sellers against the levels. However, a move above these levels should solicit additional buying interest.
The next target on the upside comes in at 89.30 here the 200 hour MA is located. The high for the day spiked up at 89.41. This was the first move above the 200 hour MA since it broke lower at 91.18 on the 25th of September. The move above the 200 hour MA was quickly reversed this morning. Look for sellers against this level again. A break, looks toward the 89.73 level which is the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the September 21st high to the low on October 7th. |
| US Trade Deficit comes in at -30.7 billion. Better than expected Posted: 09 Oct 2009 05:35 AM PDT The US Trade Deficit came in at -30.7 Billion vs expectations of -33 B. Last month the deficit came in at -32.0 B. Imports fell by 0.6% after jumping in the previous month. It is expected that imports will increase in coming months as inventories are replenished. Exports meanwhile were the highest since December 2008. This indicates the lower dollar is making exports more competitive abroad and/or the global economy is improving. Exports to Canada reached the highest level since Nov 2008. This was mostly due to car and car part exports. The data should be favorable to the US$. The EURUSD has declined only a few pips so far. However, the price is back below support at the 1.4750 and look for the next support at the 1.4735. |
| EURUSD rebounds after testing the 100 hour MA overnight Posted: 09 Oct 2009 05:22 AM PDT
The EURUSD moved down to test the 1.4719 support level and the 100 hour MA. The price declined to a low of 1.4704. The 100 hour MA came in at the 1.4704. Typically, the market will use the 100 hour MA as support (or resistance). The trade is a low risk trade with stops on moves below the level. The rebound off the MA took the price up to a high of 1.4773. There is resistance at the 1.4787 level and above that 1.4800 and 1.4821 today.
On the downside, the pair is testing support currently at the 1.4747/50 level. This is the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and the 38.2% retracement area from the move down. |
| USDCAD move lower on better Employment data Posted: 09 Oct 2009 04:59 AM PDT
With the Canadian employment report coming in much better than expected, the USDCAD has moved to new 2009 lows (lowest level since Sep 29th 2008). The next support comes in at the 1.0410 level. This corresponds to the low level from August 2008 period. Another longer term support comes in below at the 1.0296 level which corresponds with lows and highs in March and June 2008. Keep these levels in mind. The stronger number makes the case for stronger growth in Canada. The stronger data may prompt the Bank of Canada to follow the Reserve Bank of Australia and raise interest rates. The employment report showed a gain of 30.6K jobs vs expectation of 5K gain. This is on the back of a 27.1K gain last month. The back to back gain is the first since Sept/October of 2008. The employment rate also fell to 8.4%. This is the lowest rate since May 2009. The expectation was for a gain to 8.8% from 8.7% last month. |
| Canadian Unemployment figures better than expected Posted: 09 Oct 2009 04:12 AM PDT Canadian Employment Change came in at 30,600, much better than the 4,900 new jobs expected. The Unemployment Rate came in at 8.4%, also better than the 8.8% expected and 8.7% prior reading. Canadian dollar strengthened upon release of great unemployment figures with Usd/Cad now trading off 50 pips to 1.0460. |
| Gbp/Usd sent below 100 and 200 hour M/A Posted: 09 Oct 2009 02:05 AM PDT Gbp/Usd dipped below its 100 hour (1.5966) and 200 hour (1.5961) M/A. If it continues on this path look for the pair to trade down to 1.5930 area which conicides with hourly lows dating back to Oct. 7th. If the pair can rebound above 1.5988, the 50 % Fibo as shown on chart, is likely.
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| UK PPI & Trade Balance better than expectations Posted: 09 Oct 2009 01:34 AM PDT UK PPI Input m/m came in at -0.5%, stronger than the -0.9% expected. PPI Output m/m came in at 0.5%, stronger than the 0.1% expected. Trade Balance came in at -6.2B, slightly better than the -6.3B expected. Gbp/Usd jumped from up 25 pips to 1.6005-10 on news, it has since given back some gains to 1.5990. |
| German Trade Balance less than expected Posted: 08 Oct 2009 11:11 PM PDT German trade balance came in at 10.6B, less than the 12.4B expected. Eur/Usd has sold off 20 pips thus far from 1.4735 down to 1.4715 on bad trade figure. |
| Posted: 08 Oct 2009 11:08 PM PDT
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| Posted: 08 Oct 2009 04:52 PM PDT Core Machinery Orders m/m in Japan came in at 0.5%%; worse than its forecast of 2.2% and previous reading of -9.3%. The market showed a limited reaction to the release as the JPY trades off session lows against the majors. |
| Posted: 08 Oct 2009 04:23 PM PDT Speaking at a FED Board Conference in Washington today, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made the following comments:
Following these statements the USD caught a light bid across the board. |
| Oct 8 2009 Forex Evening Report Posted: 08 Oct 2009 01:30 PM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. The dollar sold off again today as gold and commodities continues the move to the upside. We are also seeing stocks move higher as well. This has led to selling of dollars with some new highs being reached for 2009 in some currency pairs. |
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