Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• The FXDD Weekend Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• FXDD Weekend Economic Releases and Events for Feb 1 to Feb 5
• EURUSD may have seen the bottom. 200 week MA and channel trendline tested at the lows
• Forex Midday Report - Jan 29th
• EURCHF has also soared higher, but reaction is still muted.
• USDCHF breaks through the 200 day MA for the first time since May 2009
• USDJPY fighting through the 90.40 area, but 90.55 looms above now
• USDJPY falls sharply as stocks give up some gains and London liquidates
• USDCAD finds support at 100 hour MA but quintuple top above
• $USDJPY finding some resistance Fibo resistance at the 90.90 level.

The FXDD Weekend Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 29 Jan 2010 10:07 PM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

FXDD Weekend Economic Releases and Events for Feb 1 to Feb 5 Posted: 29 Jan 2010 05:50 PM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

EURUSD may have seen the bottom. 200 week MA and channel trendline tested at the lows Posted: 29 Jan 2010 10:24 AM PST A reader of our blog informed me that the EURUSD tested the 200 week moving average at the 1.3857 level.  The low for the day reached 1.3862 and the channel trendline we have been following came in at 1.3860. As a result, the low may be in place for the day. Look for buyers on dips now, with stops below the 1.3858 level.

Forex Midday Report - Jan 29th Posted: 29 Jan 2010 09:51 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

EURCHF has also soared higher, but reaction is still muted. Posted: 29 Jan 2010 09:45 AM PST The EURCHF has also soared higher moving above the 100 and 200 hour MAs at the 1.4709/18 levels.  Look for support against these levels now.  A move below 1.4698 would not be welcomed. Looking at the longer term chart,the price reached a low at 1.4631 today.  If you recall the 1.5000 level was the old floor the SNB had said was the point of tolerance. Then comments from officials opened the window for an orderly decline in the pair as global growth started to increase. Now it seems a new floor may be in place for the pair (1.4600 area) or so it seems. Putting the action in perspective however, shows that the reaction, although sudden is still fairly muted.   Comparing the move higher to other intervention effforts makes this move look like a blip on the chart.  The market may be rationalizing that the move is on month end, it was also done by the BIS on behalf of another central bank who may be taking a profit at month end, not the Swiss National Bank, and as a result it may be just a technical move.   We will see.  It certainly did add some excitement to the early Friday afternoon.

USDCHF breaks through the 200 day MA for the first time since May 2009 Posted: 29 Jan 2010 09:33 AM PST The level was broken at 1.0552, and the price screams up to a high of 1.0642. Next longer term resistance level comes in at 1.0699 where the 38.2% of the move from the 2009 high to the November 2009 low.  There is a report in the market that the Bank of International Settlement is in the market.  The timing corresponding with the 200 day MA and the Friday afternoon liquidity is a sneak attack of the highest magnitude seemingly designed to get the biggest impact.

USDJPY fighting through the 90.40 area, but 90.55 looms above now Posted: 29 Jan 2010 09:30 AM PST The USDJPY has a battle going on with the 90.40 area and it seems a move above is winning. The level corresponds with the 38.2% of retracement of the days trading range and is also where  the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found. The price has moved up to 90.43 but each time the price has been pushed back down, until just recently.  A break above still has resistance at the 90.55 level which was a triple top from the last week or so of trading.  Look for intraday sellers to enter against the level. Now there ares is support a the 90.24 level below with is the days midpoint.  So support is found below as well.

USDJPY falls sharply as stocks give up some gains and London liquidates Posted: 29 Jan 2010 08:13 AM PST The USDJPY fell sharply falling through the support at 90.55 and falling to test the 200 hour MA at he 90.33 level.  The low reached 90.26 in liquidation type selling and has since bounced back to 90.40 area.  Will be watching the 90.55 level  for upside resistance now.  London and Europe are heading home and it seems they are having an influence on the bias with sellers dominating.

USDCAD finds support at 100 hour MA but quintuple top above Posted: 29 Jan 2010 07:49 AM PST The USDCAD is caught between some key levels. The price has not been able to make a meaningful push through top side resistance at the 1.0689 level.  The high reached 1.0693 and then 1.0691 and finally 1.0687 today. The failure has created a quintuple top now over the last few days of trading and has resulted in a move back lower. Although pressured, the  downside has found support against the 100 hour MA at the 1.0623 level.  There have been three tests of this technical level today. A break is needed to satisfy the correction bears who smell a temporary top and correction potential. So the battle lines are drawn. Look for bids against the support moving average level at 1.0623, but resistance sellers against the ceiling at the 1.0687/93 level. Look for a break to be followed with momentum move in the direction of the move.  On the downside, 1.0608 will be the next floor to get through (see chart above). There is the trendline which comes in at that level as well.   A move below this level should see a more lively correction lower. A move higher has the ceiling top and above that level, look for a continuation of the move higher with 1.0745 and 1.0785 being the next levels to conquer (see daily chart below).

$USDJPY finding some resistance Fibo resistance at the 90.90 level. Posted: 29 Jan 2010 07:21 AM PST The 38.2% of the move down from the 2010 high at 93.75 comes in at  90.90 level. The price in the USDJPY has run into resistance at this level and looks poised to consolidate the gains.  Key support remains at the 90.55 level where a triple top from the last week of trade is found.  I would expect to see buyers against this level on dips as action pauses.  The London /Europe close from 11:00 - noon has the potential to cause some volatility as positions squaring before the weekend is a possibility to shift supply and demand.  Watch the key levels for clues.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• University of Michigan comes in better too. 74.4 vs expectation of 73.0
• EURUSD remains contained this morning.
• Chicago comes in better than expected at 61.5 vs expectation of 57.2.
• Forex Morning Report - Jan 29th
• USDJPY tests resistance but watch support at 90.55 area
• GBPUSD moves toward last Friday’s lows
• US GDP comes in at 5.7% from 4.7% Expectations
• The market awaits the GDP
• FXDD Online Training Rebroadcast Jan 28 2010
• Feds Kohn says short term rates will need to rise at some points
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.29.2010
• January 29th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• US GDP to be released at 8:30 AM. Chicago PMI and Michigan Confidence come later
• Trichet on the wires…..
• KOF Economic Barometer (Swiss)

University of Michigan comes in better too. 74.4 vs expectation of 73.0 Posted: 29 Jan 2010 06:56 AM PST Revised to 74.4 from 72.8. The expectation was for a rise to 73.0

EURUSD remains contained this morning. Posted: 29 Jan 2010 06:53 AM PST The low for the day was reached in the Far East sesssion at the 1.3911 level and the market has not been able to approach the level in the NY session. The price has reached a low 1.3918 and remain near the lows, but the sledding is rough so far.  Action remains focused onthe USDJPY which is moving higher and the GBPUSD.  EURGBP also continues its move higher from yesterday.  Look for support at 1.3911, with stop below.

Chicago comes in better than expected at 61.5 vs expectation of 57.2. Posted: 29 Jan 2010 06:46 AM PST Comes in better than expected at 61.5 vs expectation of 57.2. This should be beneficial to the US dollar. The USDJPY has moved above the 90.81 resistance level. Employment component soared to 59.8 from 47.6.  This coupled with the GDP today is a double shot in the arm for the US economy. Prices paid                  66.2 vs  55.6 last  Production                 66.6 vs  64.2  last  New orders              66.4  vs 64.4 last   Order backlogs         54.3 vs 52.0 last   Inventories                48.7 vs  38.6 last   Employment        59.8 vs  47.6 last   Supplier deliveries  55.3  vs 57.0 last

Forex Morning Report - Jan 29th Posted: 29 Jan 2010 06:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

USDJPY tests resistance but watch support at 90.55 area Posted: 29 Jan 2010 06:19 AM PST The 61.8% of the move down from the January 21st high to the low reached on the 27th has 61.8% resistance at the 90.81 level and the mkt has stalled. However, the price has good support at the 90.55 level below. This level corresponds to the highs from the last week with a triple high at the level. The formation is also a reverse head and shoulder formation with the neckline at the key support level.

GBPUSD moves toward last Friday’s lows Posted: 29 Jan 2010 05:44 AM PST The GBPUSD has moved below trendline support as the dollar benefits on the better than expected GDP. The support comes in at the 1.6076 level which was the low price from last Friday. The low has reached 1.6083 so far. A break will next target 1.6062 - the low from January 12th. The low from January 11th comes in at 1.6046.  Longer term, the low from the end of December extended to 1.5832. This would be a longer term target. On the topside now look for resistance at 1.6106/1.6111 area where the trendline from the lows this week is found.

US GDP comes in at 5.7% from 4.7% Expectations Posted: 29 Jan 2010 05:31 AM PST This is the most since 2003 2.0% Personal Consumption vs 1.8% expectations. 3,4% of the gain was accounted for by inventories. Personal consumption           2.0%    Fixed investment                      3.5%  Exports                                           18.1% Imports                                          10.5% Government consumption    -0.2% Overall a positive report. Inventories contributed alot but consumption up 2.0% is pretty good.  The Real Final Sales rose by 2.2%. Businesses increased investment which is good as well.

The market awaits the GDP Posted: 29 Jan 2010 05:28 AM PST The rumors are for a better than 4.7% reading.  For the GBPUSD, a move  below the 1.6076 should lead to further downward momentum for the pair, with 1.6062 being the next target. On the topside look for resistance at 1.6174 where the 100 hour MA is currently located. For the EURUSD watch trendline resistance at 1.3986. THen 1.4019 and 1.4050. Support at 1.3911 and at 1.3871.

FXDD Online Training Rebroadcast Jan 28 2010 Posted: 29 Jan 2010 05:21 AM PST Here is the link to the webinar from Jan 28 2010 >>Click Here to Watch

Feds Kohn says short term rates will need to rise at some points Posted: 29 Jan 2010 05:19 AM PST Needless to say he is stating the obvious.  This goes with the dissent in the voting at the most recent FOMC by new member Hoenig, when he said he wanted to strike the phrase “for an extended period of time”   Kohn is the Vice Chairman of the FOMC.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.29.2010 Posted: 29 Jan 2010 05:17 AM PST Good Morning: The JPY fell overnight as speculation that Japan’s central bank will curb the JPY’s strength.  The Euro continues to be under pressure as Greece’s budget deficit problems persist.  Speculation in the marketplace is that Greece will not be able to reduce their budget deficit without outside assistance. Asian equity markets were lower-and Europe is higher at this time.  US Futures are pointing to a higher opening this morning. Commodities are mostly lower  as the markets speculate that demand may fall as governments try to control economic growth in their regions. Oil:$73.71                         Gold:$1083.20       TODAY’S RELEASES TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30A.M. GDP Q/Q (ANNUALIZED) 4Q A 4.60% 2.20% 8:30A.M. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION 4Q A 1.80% 2.80% 8:30A.M. GDP PRICE INDEX   4Q A 1.30% 0.40% 8:30A.M. CORE PCE Q/Q   4Q A 1.30% 1.20% 8:30A.M. EMPLOYMENT COST INDE X 4Q 0.40% 0.40% 9:45A.M. CHICAGO PURCHASING MGR. JAN. 57.O     60.O 9:55A.M. U. OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE JAN.F       73.O 72.8O 10:00A.M. NAPM -MILWAUKEE   JAN.   52.O HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

January 29th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 29 Jan 2010 04:34 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

US GDP to be released at 8:30 AM. Chicago PMI and Michigan Confidence come later Posted: 29 Jan 2010 04:32 AM PST The US GDP will be released at 8:30 AM.  The expectation is for a gain of 4.7% vs 2.2% for the 3rd quarter.  This is a Q/Q number that is annualized.  The back to back gains is positive for the US economic well being and the gain this quarter will be the highest in almost 4 years. However, the gains are off a low base as the US suffered through 4 quarters of negative growth.  Restocking of inventories will contribute. Consumer Consumption is expected to rise by 1.8% after increasing by 2.8% last quarter when cash for clunkers helped kick started the economy. The fiscal policy measures are a positive on one hand, but local and state budgets are stretched. The GDP Price Index is expected to rise by 1.3% for the quarter on an annualized basis.  At 9:45 the Chicago PMI will be released with the expectation of a fall to 57.2 from a revised 58.7 reading last month.  A reading above 50 signals expansion in the manufacturing base.  Nevertheless, the employment in the manufacturing is still not hiring employees. This is indicative of excess capacity in the manufacturing base. The Univ of Michigan final consumer confidence will be released at 9:55AM. The expectation is for a slight increase to 73.0 from 72.8 in the preliminary report.  The index is up from the low at 55 but still remains near the low levels as consumers fight employment fears and lower home prices. The key release will be the GDP.  Risk is increased through the figures.  For a review of the key technical levels, look at the NY Opening Commentary by clicking on the following link. (CLICK HERE)

Trichet on the wires….. Posted: 29 Jan 2010 02:48 AM PST ECB President Trichet made some statements in regards to the USD, but they fell on very few ears during this sluggish friday trade day. He stated: U.S. authorities say a strong dollar in in U.S. interest; he agrees. Some non-floating currencies should aprreciate. The success of the Doha round is crucial.

KOF Economic Barometer (Swiss) Posted: 29 Jan 2010 02:45 AM PST The KOF Economic Barometer came in at 1.77, beating the 1.72 estimate and prior reading of 1.73. This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy for the next 6 months, thus being a positive for CHF. The CHF has strengthened marginally off of earlier session highs against both Usd and Eur with Usd/Chf  trading at 1.0505 and Eur/Chf trading at 1.4670.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• S & P No longer classifies the UK among the most stable global banking systems
• Greece PM Papandreou says don’t need to borrow from EU. EURUSD comes under more pressure.
• Free online training today - Register in advance 4pm
• Forex Morning Report - Jan 28th
• USDJPY rebounds off support. Watching intraday resistance levels
• USDCAD watching 100 hour MA now, after 100 day MA was tested below and held
• Jobless Claims are worse than expected. Durable Goods mixed. USDJPY gets hit to support.
• GBPUSD watching support at intraday MA levels at 1.6232/34
• Durable Goods and Initial Claims due at 8:30 AM
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.28.2010
• January 28th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Eurozone Economic and Business Climate
• UK’s Darling on the wires….
• German Unemployment
• Gbp/Jpy trading in between 100 and 200 hour M/A

S & P No longer classifies the UK among the most stable global banking systems Posted: 28 Jan 2010 07:06 AM PST On a newswire report, S & P no longer classifies the UK among the most stable global banking systems. This should lead to a rise in the EURGBP.  The pair is up testing the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 0.8623 level.  A break above should lead to higher level with the 200 bar MA on the same chart coming in at 0.8939.  Watch the key level as the EURGBP has been pressured for most of the trading day. On the hourly chart the pair has also been pressured for a while now. During that time the price has been remaining below the 200 hour MA  (green line in the chart below).

Greece PM Papandreou says don’t need to borrow from EU. EURUSD comes under more pressure. Posted: 28 Jan 2010 06:50 AM PST There has been rumors that China would lend Greece funds, but that is unconfirmed. It would be curious if that would happen as it would increase the risk of the debt portfolio when they complain about the risk of the US debt. Granted it would increase the yield and perhaps they would feel that risks are balanced out, but it would be a curious move. Anyway, the comments have pressured the EURUSD over the last few minutes as the price moves below the low from yesterday at the 1.3993 level.  The low reached earlier today extended all the way down to the 1.3936 level. During that plunge the market corrected to 1.3980, fell to 1.3956 before moving to the highs for the day.  Those levels become the next target levels on the downside. On the upside, we will now watch the 1.3993 level and above that level the 1.4012 level which is the 100 and 200 bar MA level on the 5 minute chart. Longer term, the EURUSD is moving steadily lower.  The market is now in the middle of the consolidation range that held the defined the period in periods of May, June and July of 2009.  The low end comes in around the 1.3800 level. This is also the midpoint of the 2009 low to high range (see chart below).  This is a longer term target as long as the price can remain low.

Free online training today - Register in advance 4pm Posted: 28 Jan 2010 06:49 AM PST Get signed up early for the 4pm Webinar today. Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell will be teaching a class on how to limit risk in your trading. While never possible to win on every trade, there are proven ways to limit downside potential. Register here for the class. You must register in advance to take advantage of this special online training >>> Get signed up here

Forex Morning Report - Jan 28th Posted: 28 Jan 2010 06:40 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

USDJPY rebounds off support. Watching intraday resistance levels Posted: 28 Jan 2010 06:33 AM PST The 100 and  200 bar MA comes in at 90.22 and 90.26 on the 5 minute chart.  The 100 day MA comes in at 90.24 (CLICK HERE TO SEE PRIOR POST).  These levels should attract sellers, with stops on a move above the 90.36 level for the pair (see chart above).   The stock market is opening up but marginally.  There are some good earnings reports which have helped a bit.  This has offset the weaker economic data released earlier.  If the level holds  a move back to test the 100 hour MA at 89.92 may be in the cards for the pair.

USDCAD watching 100 hour MA now, after 100 day MA was tested below and held Posted: 28 Jan 2010 05:55 AM PST   The 100 day MA in the USDCAD was tested this morning at 1.0565 (low extended to 1.0554 but bounced). The price is now up testing the 100 hour MA at 1.0597.  Watch this level and look for initial sellers against the level.  The pair will need to move back below 1.0585 to solicit another test of the 1.0565 level.  However, a move above should lead to further upside move in the pair.  The 1.6011 level is a key level to get through on a break back higher.   The pair is at a key level.  Be on alert.

Jobless Claims are worse than expected. Durable Goods mixed. USDJPY gets hit to support. Posted: 28 Jan 2010 05:33 AM PST The Jobless claims fell to 470K but was higher than expectation at 450K The Durable Goods came in at +0.3 which was less than expected (+2.0%) but ex Transportation came out better at +0.9% vs expectations of +0.5%. USDJPY and Yen crosses have fallen on the higher jobless claims numbers and has moved the pair below the 90.00 level. Yesterdays 5 PM close came in at 89.98.    There is also support against the 100 hour MA at 89.93 (see chart above - blue line). The price is finding buyers against this key level as it is a low risk trade for them.  Stops are likely on a move below the level. On the topside there is resistance at 90.17 now.  Also above is the 100 day MA at the 90.24 level and earlier today we created at triple top at 90.55 which will be a key level to watch going forward should the market move above the other resistance levels.

GBPUSD watching support at intraday MA levels at 1.6232/34 Posted: 28 Jan 2010 05:25 AM PST The GBPUSD has been tracking the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart currently at the 1.6232 level.  At the ares is also the 200 hour MA which is currently at the 1.6234 level.  This will be key support for the pair today.  The bias remains up for the pair above these two key moving average levels with 1.6282 and 1.6311 upside targets.

Durable Goods and Initial Claims due at 8:30 AM Posted: 28 Jan 2010 05:16 AM PST Initial Claims are expected to improve to 450K from a surprising increase to 488K last week.   The move back down would bring the level back down to where it has been congregating.  Continuing Claims are expected to remain steady at 4593k vs 4599K last week. Durable Goods are expected to rebound by 2.0% for the headline and by 0.5% ex Transportation.  The Durable Goods was revised lower along with Factory Orders yesterday on the back of a calculation error.  The data is a volatile series as it includes high ticket items which can skew month on month figures.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.28.2010 Posted: 28 Jan 2010 05:04 AM PST Good Morning: The EUR/USD pair fell below 1.40 , trading at 1.3936  during the overnight hours. Comments from China’s central bank that they should not purchase Greece’s debt-added pressure on the Euro. Yesterday the FOMC’s statement commented that the US economy is in “recovery”, and that they will continue to keep interest rates at record lows. World equity markets were higher-and US Futures are pointing to a higher opening this morning. Ford and Procter & Gamble reported better that expected Q4 earnings. Oil:$74.25                                      Gold:$1092.40 TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30A.M. CHICAGO FED NAT ACTIVITY INDEX DEC. -0.40 -0.32 8:30A.M. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS DEC. 2.00% 0.20% 8:30A.M. DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION DEC. 0.50% 2.00% 8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS JAN.23 450K 482K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS JAN.16 4593K 4599K HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

January 28th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 28 Jan 2010 04:55 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

Eurozone Economic and Business Climate Posted: 28 Jan 2010 02:08 AM PST Eurozone Business Climate Indicator came in at -1.12, weaker than the -1.10 expected but stronger than the -1.22 prior reading and this is the highest reading since October 2008. Industry Confidence came in at -14, stronger than the -15 expected and -16 prior reading. Consumer Confidence came in at -16, weaker than the -15 expected. Economic Confidence came in at 95.7, stronger than the 92.3 expected and prior reading of 94.1. Overall positive data for the Euro although Eur/Usd relatively unchanged at 1.4030.

UK’s Darling on the wires…. Posted: 28 Jan 2010 01:40 AM PST UK Chancellor Darling has released the following statements: Any bank regulations should be global to prevent regulatory arbitrage. It is important we work with U.S and other partners on financial regulation. He is concerned with the slow progress on Basel capital adequacy rules. 2010 should be about implementation of what G20 agreed on last year. U.S has credible deficit reduction plans.

German Unemployment Posted: 28 Jan 2010 01:02 AM PST Euro caught a slight bid on the release of a slightly better than expected unemployment number out of Germany, which came in at 6K versus its forecast of 17K.

Gbp/Jpy trading in between 100 and 200 hour M/A Posted: 27 Jan 2010 11:21 PM PST Gbp/Jpy has been a high flyer in recent days. Currently the pair is trading in between its 100 and 200 hour M/A with momentum to the upside. The pair should find resistance around 146.55, a trendline of old hourly highs. If it breaks above then its 200 hour M/A of 146.83 should act as added resistance. To the downside the 61.8 fibo lies at 145.87 with better support beneath in the form of its 100 hour M/A at 145.40 , with help from the 50% fibo at 145.42.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• New Home Sales come in weaker than expected
• Factory Orders revised lower due to a processing error
• $GBPUSD tests key support at 1.6190. Next support at 1.6172.
• Forex Morning Report - Jan 27th
• EURUSD falls in NY trade. May look to buy time as the market awaits the Fed
• GBPUSD continues it’s volatile up and down ways
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.27.2010
• January 27th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for trading
• FXDD Online Training Jan 28 2010 4PM Register
• UK CBI Realized Sales
• Sterling ascends above 100 hour M/A
• MPC Member Sentance Comments….
• ECB’s Weber on the wires
• 1-27 Economic Calendar
• Excerpts From Geithner’s House Testimony Tomorrow

New Home Sales come in weaker than expected Posted: 27 Jan 2010 07:13 AM PST The New Home Sales came in much weaker than expected at 342K from a revised 370K.  This is less than the expectations at 366k. The month supply rose to 8.1 months from 7.6 months.

Factory Orders revised lower due to a processing error Posted: 27 Jan 2010 06:44 AM PST November Factory Orders revised down from +1.1 to +0.6%. The revision was due to a processing error revising seasonable adjustments Durable Goods was revised to -0.7 from +0.2% November non defense excluding aircraft was revised to +2.7 from +3.6%

$GBPUSD tests key support at 1.6190. Next support at 1.6172. Posted: 27 Jan 2010 06:32 AM PST The 100 day MA, and the 38.2% retracement of the days range make the level an important level (SEE PRIOR POST).  The price has dipped below the key level as the stock market opens up.  The Dow is opening up -30 points and the early trade is keeping the pressure on the pair.  The next target on the downside is the 1.6172 level where the 100 hour MA is found.  A move through this level should add fuel to the bearish fire.  IF the price holds however, we could see the short covering rally as market participants remain nervous.

Forex Morning Report - Jan 27th Posted: 27 Jan 2010 06:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. JANUARY 26 2010 FXDD Online Training -Click Here to watch the rebroadcast

EURUSD falls in NY trade. May look to buy time as the market awaits the Fed Posted: 27 Jan 2010 06:00 AM PST   The EURUSD is back down on the day, falling below the 1.4071 closing level from yesterday.  The pair is back below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart which gives it a bias to the downside.  There is support at the 1.4045 level which is the low from August 2009. Yesterday, the low reached 1.4042. This should also be support.   There may be support against these levels (profit takers). ON the topside watch the 1.4062 level now.

GBPUSD continues it’s volatile up and down ways Posted: 27 Jan 2010 05:28 AM PST No relief for the GBPUSD.  For the 4th day the price has reversed the prior day and is back above the 200 day MA which comes in today at the 1.6190 level.  The price has now closed below, above, below and now back above the key moving average level (assuming the level holds above today).  The action is a way the market is saying it does not know what is the next trend for the GBPUSD.  During these markets being patient is the key.  Look for key intraday levels and be sure to manage stops appropriately.  That is, when the trade is initialized have a reason to trade, and know your exact stop.  If the price does not do what it is supposed to do from your plan, get out.  On the profit exit, be sure to look for targets in the direction of the trade. If the price can not get through the target, take some partial profit and have another logical stop for the balance.   The goal is to survive without taking a big hit. Looking at the hourly chart, the price tested the 200 bar MA at the 1.6248 level in early NY trade and has moved lower.  The last corrective low for the pair intraday came in at 1.6199 and that will be eyed as initial intraday support area.  The buying at 1.6199 was early buying against support from the 200 day MA (at 1.6190) and is also the 38.2% retracement of the days sharp move higher today.  The level also corresponds with the initial low from yesterday’s volatile trade (see 5 minute chart above).  With so many key levels congregated at the price, this will be the key support level for today.  On the top, the 1.6248 area is still the level to watch as the 200 bar MA is found at the level along with trendline resistance at 1.6253 (see chart below).

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.27.2010 Posted: 27 Jan 2010 05:16 AM PST Good Morning: With speculation that the world wide economic recovery is slowing, the JPY has been one of the main benefactor as their currency rises, and investors look at the JPY as a refuge.  With the EZ having some problems with certain member countries sovereign debt, the Euro will stay under pressure. GBP rose on speculation that the UK government may pause their bond purchase program. World equity markets fell, and US futures are slightly higher.  Equity markets, like all markets, are concerned that the global recovery is losing traction and may falter. The FOMC has been meeting, and we will be expecting a statement at 2:15 PM this afternoon. The FOMC is expected to keep interest rates stable-and all eyes will be on any change in their wording of the economy. Oil:$75.06                                      Gold:$1096.30 Today’ Data: TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES  DEC. 370K 355K 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES MoM DEC. 4.20% -11.30% 2:15P.M. FOMC RATE DECISION         HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

January 27th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for trading Posted: 27 Jan 2010 05:02 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

FXDD Online Training Jan 28 2010 4PM Register Posted: 27 Jan 2010 05:00 AM PST FXDD Online Training Thursday Jan 28th 2010 4PM. Register

UK CBI Realized Sales Posted: 27 Jan 2010 03:05 AM PST UK CBI Realized Sales came in at -8, weaker than the 11 expected and the prior reading of 13. Not much reaction by the pound to this negative figure as Gbp/Usd unchanged at 1.6220.

Sterling ascends above 100 hour M/A Posted: 27 Jan 2010 02:10 AM PST On the heels of commentary from the UK’s Sentance, Gbp/Usd has ascended above its 100 hour M/A of 1.6172. We may see some resistance in the area of 1.6207 which is a trendline of old hourly lows. A break above this level can bring the pair to its 200 hour M/a of 1.6245. If this level holds a pullback at least to 1.6272 is likely.

MPC Member Sentance Comments…. Posted: 27 Jan 2010 01:39 AM PST Speaking at the British Property Federation in London, MPC member Sentance made the following comments. It is difficult to keep CPI on target if there is high services inflation and rising import prices. Cannot rely on goods deflation to hold down CPI. There is a large amount of uncertainty around CPI outlook. Business surveys suggest margin of spare capacity is not as high as expected. If the headwinds from the crisis continue, there will be downside risk to fiscal tightening  and CPI risks. A stronger global economy will cause more upward pressure on CPI. There is a risk that fiscal policy will tighten more aggressively after election. The pace of the recovery is very uncertain, but a double0dip recession should be avoided.

ECB’s Weber on the wires Posted: 27 Jan 2010 01:29 AM PST ECB’s Weber has made following comments: - economy recovering at modest pace - confident governments in Eurozone will reduce deficits - ECB can take further exit steps before second half -inflation to accelerate, not to exceed 2% - ECB rates are “appropriate” - confident about Greece deficit plan Eur/Usd has now reversed its course and is up about 30 points from its lows, currently trading at 1.4058

1-27 Economic Calendar Posted: 26 Jan 2010 09:12 PM PST

Excerpts From Geithner’s House Testimony Tomorrow Posted: 26 Jan 2010 07:23 PM PST AIG rescue not aimed at protecting certain firms. AIG failure would’ve been ‘catastrophic’ for US. Gov’t helped stabilize the system and restore credit. AIG is ’substantially better’ than 12 months ago. AIG insurance units are ‘generating positive returns.’ Gov’t may recover more than expected from AIG. Gov’t loans to AIG will be ‘fully repaid.’ US AIG aid saved the economy and not counterparties. ‘Overwhelming force’ needed to combat crisis.

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