Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Pending Home sales miserable for November. Factory Orders strong
- EURUSD breaks below the 1.4400 level. Will we start to trend?
- FXDD Online Training Thursday Jan 7th 2010 4pm
- Jan 5 2010 Forex Morning Report
- $EURUSD in the meat of the trading range
- AUDUSD non trending. Watch 0.9148. Correction may be coming.
- Canada Raw Material and Industrial Prices higher than expectation
- GBPUSD watching the 1.6071 key resistance level today
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.5.2010
- USDCAD moves to test support. Price remains below the 100 bar moving average resistance.
- January 5th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary
- Eurozone CPI Estimate
- UK Construction PMI
- German Unemployment Change
- Sterling retraces half of move down from yesterday’s high
| Pending Home sales miserable for November. Factory Orders strong Posted: 05 Jan 2010 06:01 AM PST The Pending Home sales plunged -16% which is the first decline in 10 months but is an oversized decline. The thought is the incentive uncertainty for new buyers caused the sharp decline. In recent weeks mortgage rates have also increased which may also put sales on hold going forward. Housing continues to remain a thorn in the Fed and banks sides. On a positive note, Factory Orders for November increased by 1.1% vs expectations of a 0.5% increase. The prior month was also revised higher to +0.8% from +0.6%. If you strip out transportation, the orders wer up 1.9%. The market is confused as to direction given the conflicting reports. However, it seems the dollar is a little weaker. The market will likely look toward Friday’s Unemployment report for the major directional clues. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD breaks below the 1.4400 level. Will we start to trend? Posted: 05 Jan 2010 05:42 AM PST
The EURUSD has moved below the 1.4400 floor. Look for the sellers against the level with stops on a move back above close from yesterday at 1.4413. The 1.4370 is the next downside target for the pair. The 100 hour MA is also near that level currently.
The EURUSD is in a non trending mode as moving averages (100 and 200 bar moving averages in both the 5 minute and hourly charts above) are going more or less sideways and also are starting to converge. This normally leads to a trend like move. We are on alert for such a move today. Watch the key levels and look for momentum on breaks of key levels. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| FXDD Online Training Thursday Jan 7th 2010 4pm Posted: 05 Jan 2010 05:31 AM PST
FXDD’s next Online Training is Thursday Jan 7th 2010 at 4pm New York Time (Eastern) Register here for the next class | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jan 5 2010 Forex Morning Report Posted: 05 Jan 2010 05:30 AM PST | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| $EURUSD in the meat of the trading range Posted: 05 Jan 2010 05:21 AM PST
The EURUSD is back in the meat of the trading range over the last few days. The bottom is defined by support at 1.4400 and the topside is defined by 1.4432/37. The price is currently below the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 5 minute charts and this gives a bearish intraday bias. A break of the 1.4400 level should lead to further selling pressure with the 1.4370 level being the next downside target, with | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AUDUSD non trending. Watch 0.9148. Correction may be coming. Posted: 05 Jan 2010 04:47 AM PST
The 61.8 % retracement of the move down from the November high at the 0.9405 to the December low at 0.8733 comes in at the 0.9148 level. The price moved above this level today but has come back down below this level currently. Watch the level. The market surge may be ready for a correction lower.
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| Canada Raw Material and Industrial Prices higher than expectation Posted: 05 Jan 2010 04:38 AM PST The Raw Material and Industrial Product Prices rose more than expectations coming in at +2.2% and 1.0% respectively. The expectations were for a gain of 1.1% and 0.5%.
The USDCAD has rallied higher since the release and approaches the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart currently at the 1.0372 level. Additional resistance comes in at the 1.0379 level. Look for supprot at the 1.0359 level now. If it is able to hold the support, we should see a further move higher in the pair today. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GBPUSD watching the 1.6071 key resistance level today Posted: 05 Jan 2010 04:26 AM PST
The GBPUSDs 200 day moving average comes in at the 1.6071 level today. This is a key level to stay below for the bears today. As a result, look for sellers against the level with buying on breaks above. The 100 bar moving average is also up near this level (currently at 1.6065 and moving lower). The market will pay attention to this level as well today. Finally, on the hourly chart (see chart below), the price is currently between the 100 and 200 hour MA level (blue and green moving average line). Those levels come in at the 1.6048 and 1.6015 level respectively. When the price falls between these moving averages (between the “goal Posts” in FXDD talk), the market is thought to be in a neutral stance - awaiting a break above or below the moving average levels. So traders can watch these levels for clues to intraday direction. On the downside, the low at 1.5987 was just below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the December 30th low of 1.5832 and the January 4th high of 1.6245. This is a positive for the pair and does keep the bulls in the ball game today. Overall, the technicals have a little something for everyone. Watch the 100 and 200 hour MA. Moves above and below will be eyed for directional bias. Watch the 1.6071 level (a move above confirms upside). Watch the 1.5988 level. A move below that level should solidify the downside. Be aware. Be prepared. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.5.2010 Posted: 05 Jan 2010 04:06 AM PST
The USD was fairly stable in overnight FX markets. GBP/USD did dip through 1.60-but has since recovered to the 1.60 handle. World equity markets are higher and US Futures are also pointing to a higher opening this morning. Oil:$81.78 Gold:$1126.80
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| USDCAD moves to test support. Price remains below the 100 bar moving average resistance. Posted: 05 Jan 2010 03:45 AM PST
The USDCAD has moved lower in early NY trade and tests the 1.0346 level. The last time the pair was down at this level in October 2009, the pair used this price area as support/resistance during a consolidation period at that time (see chart above from that period). Additional support from that time period comes in at the 1.0300 level. The USDCAD has been helped by higher commodity prices. Oil is up again today by a modes $0.22 and Gold is also up. Both benefit the Canadian dollar and the market seems to be focused on those intermarket clues for the pairs price bias. At 8:30 MA the Industrial Product and Raw Material Price indices will be released. The expectation is for a gain of 0.5% and 1.1% respectively on a month on month basis for November.
On the topside, the breaking of the 1.0405/15 level and the ability to use the level as a ceiling today, increases the importance of the level for upside resistance. Before that level look for resistance at the 1.0359 level which was the earlier low from today. Additional resistance comes in at the 1.0375 level where the 100 bar Moving average on the 5 minute chart is located. This moving average is moving lower so watch it closely. Look for profit taking buying at current levels to slow the decline, but the corrective move higher will be telling. If it is mild, look for selling pressure to continue. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| January 5th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary Posted: 05 Jan 2010 03:28 AM PST | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 05 Jan 2010 12:56 AM PST Eurozone CPI Estimate y/y came in at 0.9% as forecasted, an improvement over the prior reading of 0.5%. Eur/Usd remains to trade at 1.4430 with no market impact. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 05 Jan 2010 12:27 AM PST UK Construction PMI came in at 47.1, weaker than the 47.4 expected and a slight improvement over the prior reading of 47.0. Gbp/Usd is trading slightly off since the release. Currently the pair trades at 1.6067. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 04 Jan 2010 11:56 PM PST German Unemployment Change came in at -3,000, an improvement over the 6000 rise expected. Eur/Usd did get a small lift trading up 10 points to 1.4422. Though a positive for the Euro , this figure is generally viewed as a lagging indicator. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sterling retraces half of move down from yesterday’s high Posted: 04 Jan 2010 09:52 PM PST Gbp/Usd is currently trading just beneath the 50% Fibo retracement of the move down from 1.6240 to 1.6064. The next level of resistance should be 1.6173 which is the 61.8% Fibo. If these levels hold a move back down below 1.6100 is likely. a break above should bring us back to 1.6240.
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