Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• University of Michigan comes in better too. 74.4 vs expectation of 73.0
• EURUSD remains contained this morning.
• Chicago comes in better than expected at 61.5 vs expectation of 57.2.
• Forex Morning Report - Jan 29th
• USDJPY tests resistance but watch support at 90.55 area
• GBPUSD moves toward last Friday’s lows
• US GDP comes in at 5.7% from 4.7% Expectations
• The market awaits the GDP
• FXDD Online Training Rebroadcast Jan 28 2010
• Feds Kohn says short term rates will need to rise at some points
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.29.2010
• January 29th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• US GDP to be released at 8:30 AM. Chicago PMI and Michigan Confidence come later
• Trichet on the wires…..
• KOF Economic Barometer (Swiss)

University of Michigan comes in better too. 74.4 vs expectation of 73.0 Posted: 29 Jan 2010 06:56 AM PST Revised to 74.4 from 72.8. The expectation was for a rise to 73.0

EURUSD remains contained this morning. Posted: 29 Jan 2010 06:53 AM PST The low for the day was reached in the Far East sesssion at the 1.3911 level and the market has not been able to approach the level in the NY session. The price has reached a low 1.3918 and remain near the lows, but the sledding is rough so far.  Action remains focused onthe USDJPY which is moving higher and the GBPUSD.  EURGBP also continues its move higher from yesterday.  Look for support at 1.3911, with stop below.

Chicago comes in better than expected at 61.5 vs expectation of 57.2. Posted: 29 Jan 2010 06:46 AM PST Comes in better than expected at 61.5 vs expectation of 57.2. This should be beneficial to the US dollar. The USDJPY has moved above the 90.81 resistance level. Employment component soared to 59.8 from 47.6.  This coupled with the GDP today is a double shot in the arm for the US economy. Prices paid                  66.2 vs  55.6 last  Production                 66.6 vs  64.2  last  New orders              66.4  vs 64.4 last   Order backlogs         54.3 vs 52.0 last   Inventories                48.7 vs  38.6 last   Employment        59.8 vs  47.6 last   Supplier deliveries  55.3  vs 57.0 last

Forex Morning Report - Jan 29th Posted: 29 Jan 2010 06:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

USDJPY tests resistance but watch support at 90.55 area Posted: 29 Jan 2010 06:19 AM PST The 61.8% of the move down from the January 21st high to the low reached on the 27th has 61.8% resistance at the 90.81 level and the mkt has stalled. However, the price has good support at the 90.55 level below. This level corresponds to the highs from the last week with a triple high at the level. The formation is also a reverse head and shoulder formation with the neckline at the key support level.

GBPUSD moves toward last Friday’s lows Posted: 29 Jan 2010 05:44 AM PST The GBPUSD has moved below trendline support as the dollar benefits on the better than expected GDP. The support comes in at the 1.6076 level which was the low price from last Friday. The low has reached 1.6083 so far. A break will next target 1.6062 - the low from January 12th. The low from January 11th comes in at 1.6046.  Longer term, the low from the end of December extended to 1.5832. This would be a longer term target. On the topside now look for resistance at 1.6106/1.6111 area where the trendline from the lows this week is found.

US GDP comes in at 5.7% from 4.7% Expectations Posted: 29 Jan 2010 05:31 AM PST This is the most since 2003 2.0% Personal Consumption vs 1.8% expectations. 3,4% of the gain was accounted for by inventories. Personal consumption           2.0%    Fixed investment                      3.5%  Exports                                           18.1% Imports                                          10.5% Government consumption    -0.2% Overall a positive report. Inventories contributed alot but consumption up 2.0% is pretty good.  The Real Final Sales rose by 2.2%. Businesses increased investment which is good as well.

The market awaits the GDP Posted: 29 Jan 2010 05:28 AM PST The rumors are for a better than 4.7% reading.  For the GBPUSD, a move  below the 1.6076 should lead to further downward momentum for the pair, with 1.6062 being the next target. On the topside look for resistance at 1.6174 where the 100 hour MA is currently located. For the EURUSD watch trendline resistance at 1.3986. THen 1.4019 and 1.4050. Support at 1.3911 and at 1.3871.

FXDD Online Training Rebroadcast Jan 28 2010 Posted: 29 Jan 2010 05:21 AM PST Here is the link to the webinar from Jan 28 2010 >>Click Here to Watch

Feds Kohn says short term rates will need to rise at some points Posted: 29 Jan 2010 05:19 AM PST Needless to say he is stating the obvious.  This goes with the dissent in the voting at the most recent FOMC by new member Hoenig, when he said he wanted to strike the phrase “for an extended period of time”   Kohn is the Vice Chairman of the FOMC.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.29.2010 Posted: 29 Jan 2010 05:17 AM PST Good Morning: The JPY fell overnight as speculation that Japan’s central bank will curb the JPY’s strength.  The Euro continues to be under pressure as Greece’s budget deficit problems persist.  Speculation in the marketplace is that Greece will not be able to reduce their budget deficit without outside assistance. Asian equity markets were lower-and Europe is higher at this time.  US Futures are pointing to a higher opening this morning. Commodities are mostly lower  as the markets speculate that demand may fall as governments try to control economic growth in their regions. Oil:$73.71                         Gold:$1083.20       TODAY’S RELEASES TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30A.M. GDP Q/Q (ANNUALIZED) 4Q A 4.60% 2.20% 8:30A.M. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION 4Q A 1.80% 2.80% 8:30A.M. GDP PRICE INDEX   4Q A 1.30% 0.40% 8:30A.M. CORE PCE Q/Q   4Q A 1.30% 1.20% 8:30A.M. EMPLOYMENT COST INDE X 4Q 0.40% 0.40% 9:45A.M. CHICAGO PURCHASING MGR. JAN. 57.O     60.O 9:55A.M. U. OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE JAN.F       73.O 72.8O 10:00A.M. NAPM -MILWAUKEE   JAN.   52.O HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

January 29th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 29 Jan 2010 04:34 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

US GDP to be released at 8:30 AM. Chicago PMI and Michigan Confidence come later Posted: 29 Jan 2010 04:32 AM PST The US GDP will be released at 8:30 AM.  The expectation is for a gain of 4.7% vs 2.2% for the 3rd quarter.  This is a Q/Q number that is annualized.  The back to back gains is positive for the US economic well being and the gain this quarter will be the highest in almost 4 years. However, the gains are off a low base as the US suffered through 4 quarters of negative growth.  Restocking of inventories will contribute. Consumer Consumption is expected to rise by 1.8% after increasing by 2.8% last quarter when cash for clunkers helped kick started the economy. The fiscal policy measures are a positive on one hand, but local and state budgets are stretched. The GDP Price Index is expected to rise by 1.3% for the quarter on an annualized basis.  At 9:45 the Chicago PMI will be released with the expectation of a fall to 57.2 from a revised 58.7 reading last month.  A reading above 50 signals expansion in the manufacturing base.  Nevertheless, the employment in the manufacturing is still not hiring employees. This is indicative of excess capacity in the manufacturing base. The Univ of Michigan final consumer confidence will be released at 9:55AM. The expectation is for a slight increase to 73.0 from 72.8 in the preliminary report.  The index is up from the low at 55 but still remains near the low levels as consumers fight employment fears and lower home prices. The key release will be the GDP.  Risk is increased through the figures.  For a review of the key technical levels, look at the NY Opening Commentary by clicking on the following link. (CLICK HERE)

Trichet on the wires….. Posted: 29 Jan 2010 02:48 AM PST ECB President Trichet made some statements in regards to the USD, but they fell on very few ears during this sluggish friday trade day. He stated: U.S. authorities say a strong dollar in in U.S. interest; he agrees. Some non-floating currencies should aprreciate. The success of the Doha round is crucial.

KOF Economic Barometer (Swiss) Posted: 29 Jan 2010 02:45 AM PST The KOF Economic Barometer came in at 1.77, beating the 1.72 estimate and prior reading of 1.73. This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy for the next 6 months, thus being a positive for CHF. The CHF has strengthened marginally off of earlier session highs against both Usd and Eur with Usd/Chf  trading at 1.0505 and Eur/Chf trading at 1.4670.

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