Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- USDCAD finds sellers against the 100 day MA
- Forex Morning Report Jan 22
- GBPUSD falls below 1.6109. Pressure remains.
- EURUSD consolidates with 1.4117 being a key level today.
- Canada Retail Sales lower than expected. USDCAD inching closer to 100 day resistance at 1.0575 (corrected level)
- Canada Retail Sales due out at 8:30 AM
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.22.2010
- January 22nd 2010 NY Opening Morning Commentary is available for viewing
- GBPUSD falls in early NY trade after corrective move earlier. Yesterdays low tested
- EUR Industrial New Orders m/m
- UK Retail Sales
- Kan/Shirakawa on the wires…
- Australian Q4 Import/Export Price Index
- Moving Averages Ruling a Trending Market
| USDCAD finds sellers against the 100 day MA Posted: 22 Jan 2010 06:33 AM PST
The USDCAD moved up to test the key 100 day MA level at the 1.0575 (I mistakeningly said the level was 1.0580 in an earlier post - CLICK HERE ). Sellers emerged at the level (high reached 1.0570) and has come off a bit. However, the market will now see what that correction brings. Below there is a triple top against the 1.0522 level and I would expect that intraday traders would look to test the resolve the conviction of the market by buying against the level, with stops below. If the dip can hold this level, a Friday push through the 100 day MA cannot be ruled out. Watch the correction, what the 1.0575 level.
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| Posted: 22 Jan 2010 06:30 AM PST |
| GBPUSD falls below 1.6109. Pressure remains. Posted: 22 Jan 2010 06:22 AM PST
The GBPUSD after testing the 1.6109 level and bouncing slightly but is now broken the key level (see chart above). The move below the 200 day MA is of significance today and seems to have the market looking for further downside pressure for the pair. The prior low for the week did come in at the 1.6124 level and will be eyed as a level today for the market to stay below. If this level is able to hold, the bias to the downside should remain. |
| EURUSD consolidates with 1.4117 being a key level today. Posted: 22 Jan 2010 06:01 AM PST
The EURUSD has found the comfort zone at the 1.4117 level . The price has been a floor and a ceiling over the last few days, and is also near the 38.2% retracement of the move up from yesterdays low which comes in at the 1.4113. The 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.4122 currently. The 100 bar MA on the same chart (blue line in chart above) comes in at 1.4136 currently. The 1.4136 level will be used as topside resistance this morning. If the price can stay below this level, the bias remains to the downside.
On the downside, the 1.4045 is support. This was the low from August (the last time the price was down at this area). Yesterday the price moved to a low at 1.4029 yesterday and bounce back higher. This will also be a support level as the EURUSD consolidates after the move lower.
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| Posted: 22 Jan 2010 05:34 AM PST The Retail Sales came in at -0.3% for the month of November but the Ex Auto came in at 0.0%. This was a little worse than expectations which had the headline at -0.3% and +0.2%. The USDCAD has been rallying since breaking back above the key 1.0415 level. This level was floor support than ceiling resistance, before breaking back above this week (see blue horizontal line in the chart above). The pair is approaching the key 100 day MA resistance at the 1.0575 (corrected) level (see chart). The high today has reached 1.0552 level so far, but backed off. On the downside, look for support at the 1.0519/24 level. This is the triple top area and 38.2% retracement of the move higher today. This level should attract buying support on dips. Watch 1.0575 above.
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| Canada Retail Sales due out at 8:30 AM Posted: 22 Jan 2010 05:28 AM PST
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| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.22.2010 Posted: 22 Jan 2010 05:08 AM PST
The USD and financial sector stocks fell as concerns that President Obama’s plan to limit the activities banks can participate in will hurt bank earnings. Obama’s plan will restrict proprietary trading by banks, and cause some banks to shed their private-equity divisions. The banks will also be restricted when it comes to investing in buyouts. Asian and European equity markets dropped, and US Futures are pointing to a lower opening this morning. This morning we had earning from GE-which showed a lower profit decline than analysts anticipated. Oil:$75.69 Gold:$1092.20 No major data today. HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK |
| January 22nd 2010 NY Opening Morning Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 22 Jan 2010 04:40 AM PST |
| GBPUSD falls in early NY trade after corrective move earlier. Yesterdays low tested Posted: 22 Jan 2010 04:38 AM PST
The GBPUSD corrected to the 200 and 100 hour moving average area. The price is down testing the low from yesterday at 1.6124. Additional support comes in at the 1.6109. I would expect some buyers against these levels. but don’t ignore a break as the price is now back below the 200 day MA. The 200 day MA comes in at the 1.6169 level today and will be an upside resistance level to start the NY trading day. Yesterday the price moved below this key moving average but closed above the level. Today if the market gains some momentum, the pair has the potential to gather some momentum. So be aware. Watch the 1.6109-24 level, but remember the 200 day MA.
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| Posted: 22 Jan 2010 02:04 AM PST The market showed no reaction to a better than expected release of new orders which came in at 1.6%; better than its 0.6% forecast. |
| Posted: 22 Jan 2010 01:38 AM PST Sterling fell across the board after December Retail Sales out of the UK came in at 0.3%; worse than it’s survey of 1.1% but better than the prior reading of -0.3%. The y/y showing was 2.1% versus the forecast of 3.0% and prior of 3.1%. After further reading, GBP gained back nearly 75% of the initial move. |
| Posted: 21 Jan 2010 11:49 PM PST The JPY made new session highs against the USD, but quickly retreated after the release of the following comments made by Japanese Finance Minister Naoto Kan:
In addition, released at the same time, were these comments made by BOJ governor Shirakawa:
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| Australian Q4 Import/Export Price Index Posted: 21 Jan 2010 04:36 PM PST Expecting quarter over quarter appreciation in both the Export and Import Price Indexes the releases were varying but not surprising. Import prices are lower than expected as a strong AUD is keeping imports cheaper. On the export side prices are higher than expected as commodities continue to appreciate. The AUD/USD lost some momentum after the release trading marginally lower, however prices are again moving back to pre-release levels. The details of the release are as follows: Export Price Index (QoQ) - Survey:3.5% Actual:-1.7% Prior:-9.6% Import Price Index (QoQ) - Survey:-2.0% Actual:-4.3% Prior:-3.0% |
| Moving Averages Ruling a Trending Market Posted: 21 Jan 2010 04:12 PM PST As the pro-risk currencies appreciation of the last 6 months looks to have subsided and a USD correction is underway, we notice that long-term moving averages and retracements are playing their role as the markets gradually trend lower. For the USD/JPY pair, it got a breather last session on the 100 day moving average and the 38.2% retracement of its latest move, before comfortably breaking below this session ahead of the Nikkei open.
On the EUR/USD pair we have seen major support at the 200 day moving average throughout the start of 2010 before a break this week, which could lead to the much advertised ~1.3750 level, coinciding with the 38.2% retracement of the EUR/USD from all time highs during the summer of 2008.
For Cable we see the pair hovering around 50% retracement of the 2010 move and receiving support at the 4-100hr moving average.
We also see the AUD/USD pair finding support on the 100 day moving average ahead of longer-term support at the 38.2% retracement of the move north over the last 6-months.
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