Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- EURCHF stalling at the lows but still struggles
- IBD/TIPP comes in at 48.8 vs 48.5 expectations
- GBPUSD range trading between 1.6109 and 1.6158 area
- Forex Morning Report Jan 12th
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.12.2010
- US Trade Deficit falls to -36.4 billion. Canada Trade moves to a surprise deficit
- January 12th 2010 NY Opening Commentary is available for viewing
- UK House Prices/ Trade Balance
- Kraft Offer Unattractive…
- 1-12 Economic Calendar
- Forex Evening Report - Jan 11th
- On the wires: Dubai home prices fall 52% on foreclosures in past year.
- USD/JPY facing pressure on the top side of the goalposts
- Forex Midday Report - Jan 11th
| EURCHF stalling at the lows but still struggles Posted: 12 Jan 2010 06:11 AM PST
Yesterday SNBs Hildebrand commented on the value of the EURCHF suggesting the central bank would not support a sharply lower level for the pair. The EURCHF has been trending down from the high of 1.5138 in Mid December and gathered downward momentum on the break of the 1.5000 floor. The warning yesterday led to a move higher but the price remained below the 100 hour MA which currenty comes in at the 1.4782 level ( see chart above). Looking at the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart the price is waffling around the two moving averages indicative of a non -trend consolidative period. If the price is to remain below, the bias is to the downside. If the price moves above the bias turns bullish shorter term with targets of 1.4763 (trendline) and then the 1.4782 level where the key 100 hour MA is found. |
| IBD/TIPP comes in at 48.8 vs 48.5 expectations Posted: 12 Jan 2010 06:00 AM PST The IBD/TIPP comes in at 48.8 vs 48.5 expectations for January. The index below 50 indicates a negative outlook. The index rose above the 50 level in August and September but has been back below the level since that time. Within in the details of the report, the Economic Outlook has risen to 51.8 from 46.7. The Personal Financial Outlook fell to 53.4 from 53.6. Finally, the Federal Policies outlook remained depressed at 41.2 but was up from the 40.2 reading last month. |
| GBPUSD range trading between 1.6109 and 1.6158 area Posted: 12 Jan 2010 05:49 AM PST
The GBPUSD is caught between support against the 200 day MA level at the 1.6309 level and the upside resistance at the 1.6158 area. The 1.6158 level was a level from the daily chart going back to the summer months (see chart above). The market moved below the level in December on its way to the lows but has moved back higher of late and is testing the old support level over the last few trading days.
Looking at the hourly chart, the price moved to a high of 1.6170 today but came off on the break. We will continue to look for resistance against these levels while watching the 1.6109 level on the downside for support (200 day MA level). A break of the 1.6109 level targets 1.6079. A move above 1.6158 and then 1.6170 will look toward the 1.6192 price high from yesterday and ultimately the 1.6310 level which is the 100 day MA on the daily chart. |
| Posted: 12 Jan 2010 05:15 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. Today is the day. FXDD online training at 4pm Visit the Webinar page here |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.12.2010 Posted: 12 Jan 2010 04:28 AM PST
Both the USD and JPY gained versus the higher-yielding currencies as world wide equity markets dropped. Alcoa missed estimates for their Q4 results. It seems that the equity markets are what investors are following. If the equity markets rally starts to slow-it will help the USD and JPY. Trade Balance came in worse than expected (see details below) World wide equity markets were lower. Europe continues to trade in negative territory, and US Futures are pointing to a lower opening this morning. Oil:$81.28 Gold:$1148.25 Today’s Data: HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
| US Trade Deficit falls to -36.4 billion. Canada Trade moves to a surprise deficit Posted: 12 Jan 2010 04:28 AM PST The US Trade Deficit fell to -36.4 billion from -33.2 B revised. The Imports rose to $174.6 blillion from $170.2 billion or 2.6% on higher oil and computer imports. Exports increased by a smaller 0.9% to 138.2 billion. The export number has increased for the 7th consecutive month to the highest level in a year. The Real or inflation adjusted deficit also declined to -40.712 billion from -38.328 billion last month The larger deficit will subtract from 4th quarter GDP. Meanwhile Canada Trade data showed a surprise decline to -0.3 billion versus expectations of 0.5%. The imports grew by 3.9% which was greater than the export growth of 1.1%. The USDCAD has rallied off the data (Canada weaker). A weaker Canadian dollar will make exports more competitive abroad and cause the price of imports to increase, encouraging domestic goods as substitutes.
The USDCAD has moved up and is testing the 200 hour MA at the 1.0385 level currently. Look for sellers against the level. However, with lower commodities today, the bias favors a corrective move higher. A break above targets 1.0413 (50% retracement of the last move lower). A break below 1.0355 would lessen the bullish bias. |
| January 12th 2010 NY Opening Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 12 Jan 2010 04:12 AM PST |
| UK House Prices/ Trade Balance Posted: 12 Jan 2010 12:29 AM PST The GBP traded higher against the majors after the initial release of better than expected Visible Trade Balance and House Prices, but lost those gains shortly after. The trade balance, forecasted at -7b came in at -6.8b versus its prior reading of -7.1b. DCLG HPI (y/y) was 0.6% for November in relation to its 0.1% survey and previous release of -2.2%. |
| Posted: 11 Jan 2010 10:47 PM PST Cadbury stated that Kraft’s offer is even more unattractive today than it was when Kraft made its first formal offer back in December. Sterling came off slightly across the board on the release of this news. |
| Posted: 11 Jan 2010 08:09 PM PST
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| Forex Evening Report - Jan 11th Posted: 11 Jan 2010 12:15 PM PST |
| On the wires: Dubai home prices fall 52% on foreclosures in past year. Posted: 11 Jan 2010 10:13 AM PST On the wires today: Dubai's housing rut sent prices down 52% percent in 2009, prompting some homeowners to abandon their cars and mortgage payments and flee the country during the recent crisis. |
| USD/JPY facing pressure on the top side of the goalposts Posted: 11 Jan 2010 09:31 AM PST
The USD/JPY is facing pressure from the top side of the goalpost. The pair failed to break above the 200 Day moving average at 93.49 and has since moved lower into the middle of the two moving averages. We have followed this pair up from the break above the 100 Day MA in late December. The current weak dollar sentiment from Friday’s NFP releases to today’s Chinese data, have pushed the USD/JPY lower. The pair is holding just above support at the 91.71 area. A move below this could take the pair to the 100 Day MA at 90.61.
On the 1 hour chart, the pair is holding well below both moving averages, 100MA (blue) at 92.51 and 200MA (green) at 92.42. 91.70 is acting as near term support. The next level below this to look for is the Jan 5th 2010 low at 91.24. If the pair retraces it will have to contend with resistance from both 200MA and 100MA’s before it can move higher. |
| Forex Midday Report - Jan 11th Posted: 11 Jan 2010 08:30 AM PST |
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