Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

GBPUSD stays heavy and takes out the days lows

Posted: 06 Jan 2010 05:57 AM PST

The GBPUSD remains pressured below the 1.5988 level and has taken out the low for the day at the 1.5943.  The new low is 1.5936. Resistance now comes at 1.5964 which is the low from yesterday’s trade. If the price can remain below this level, the market bears will remain in charge and a more substantial decline can be explored.  Watch the 1.5964 level.

gregmike-06117

EURUSD making a little move lower. Watching to see if the momentum can be maintained.

Posted: 06 Jan 2010 05:43 AM PST

gregmike-06115

The EURUSD has moved below the 1.4350  level where the 100 bar moving on the 5 minute chart is found.  The bias is trying to look back down the downside.  Next target to get through is at the 1.4334.  The price is also below the 1.4371 level which is the 100 hour MA on the hourly chart.

gregmike-06116

Jan 06 2010 Forex Market Update

Posted: 06 Jan 2010 05:30 AM PST

Click here to view the embedded video.

Next Online Training Thursday Jan 7th at 4pm - Details Here

$USDCAD stays below 1.0405 resistance and moves lower. Test support at 1.0335/47

Posted: 06 Jan 2010 05:24 AM PST

gregmike-06113

The 1.0405/15 level was old floor support for the USDCAD and it is now becoming a ceiling resistance over the last 2 trading days.  The failure to move back above this key level and higher gold prices has led to some downside pressure in the pair. However, we continue to watch support at the 1.0335/1.0346 level.  Abreak below looks toward the 1.0300 as the continued probe lower continues for the pair. Upside resistance short term watch 1.0367 which was lows from earlier in the trading day today. 

gregmike-06114

USDCHF keeps the 100 day MA as the level to watch today

Posted: 06 Jan 2010 04:46 AM PST

gregmike-06111

The USDCHF’s key level to be aware of today is the 100 day moving average which comes in at the 1.0299 level today. The low today reached 1.0310 so far today. The pair has been pressured of late after a run up overnight.  Yesterday the price moved back above the key moving average after closing below it on the first trading day of the year.  The move back down today is keeping the market neutral.

gregmike-06112

Looking at the hourly chart the price has closed below the 100 hour MA at the 1.0333 level currently for the last 5 trading hours.  This level will be upside resistance now for the USDCHF as we continue to search for low risk trading opportunities.  Eventually the market will look to move away from these levels but the markets apathy seems to have a grip on the market. 

The ISM Non Manufacturing is the next release at 10 AM with the expectation of the index rising back above the 50 level at 50.5e.  The FOMC minutes will be released at 2;00 PM this afternoon.

USDJPY falls below intraday support at 92.23

Posted: 06 Jan 2010 04:32 AM PST

gregmike-06110

The USDJPY is testing support against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 92.23 level. A move below would be switch the bias down and should target lower levels for the USDJPY.  The USDJPY has retraced most of the decline from yesterday’s trade.  Support next comes in at the 92.01 level where the 38.2% retracement of the move up from yesterdays low comes in, along with the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.  Upside resistance comes in at the 92.30 level now.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.6.2010

Posted: 06 Jan 2010 04:18 AM PST

bob-slade-forex-2-150x200Good Morning:

The JPY dropped versus the USD as the  global economic  recovery lessens demand for the JPY as a safe haven. 
Also contributing to the JPY’s fall is the news that Japanese Finance Minister Fujji has resigned.  The USD stayed positive as speculation that this weeks economic data will add additional proof that the US economy is moving towards recovery.

Asian equity markets were mixed, Europe is lower at this time. US Futures  are also pointing to a lower opening.

Oil is slightly higher, as freezing temperatures continue to grip the US.  Metals were also higher.  Concerns that  icy winter weather  may disrupt production and delivery schedules also added to the gains.

Oil:$81.56                     Gold:$1122.80

  TODAY’S RELEASES
TIME FOR  EST PRIOR
7:30 A.M. CHALLENGER JOB CUTS YoY DEC. -72.3%
8:15A.M. ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE DEC. -78K -169K
10:00A.M. ISM-NON MANF.COMPOSITE DEC. 5O.5 48.7O

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD stuck in the range still. Watching 1.4371 level today.

Posted: 06 Jan 2010 04:15 AM PST

gregmike-06109

The 100 hour MA is at the 1.4371. The 200 hour MA is at the 1.4362 level. The midpoint of the range since Dec 22nd comes in at 1.4350. The price is 1.4363.  A move above 1.4371 would give a bullish bias. Below is a bearish bias.  The market is non-trending and we continue to look for a move either up or down.   Be on alert.

ADP comes in at -84K

Posted: 06 Jan 2010 04:11 AM PST

This is lower than expectations of a decline fo -75K.  The US NFP is expected to come in at 0K on Friday.  This report tends to be more negative by about -50K.

January 6th 2009 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 06 Jan 2010 03:38 AM PST

Challenger job cuts came in at -72.9 vs a year ago.

Posted: 06 Jan 2010 03:32 AM PST

Challenger job cuts came in at -72.9 vs a year ago. The planned cuts fell to 45,094 vs 166,348 a year ago.  Compared to last month, the planned job cuts fell from 50,349.  This is the 5th straight decline.  This is also at the lowest level since December 2007. This data is showing improving job prospects.

The ADP Employment Change report will be released at 8:15 AM with expectations of a decline of 75K. Last month the estimate showed a decline of -169K which was much lower than the actual NFP report which showed at -11K decline. The expectation for NFP is for a decline of 0K - the first month that has not been negative since December 2007.

French President Sarkozy looks for weaker Eur/Usd

Posted: 06 Jan 2010 02:08 AM PST

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the weakness of the dollar against the euro was “a considerable problem.”

Eur/Usd lower on negative Industrial New Orders

Posted: 06 Jan 2010 01:15 AM PST

It wasn’t an immediate reaction but the Eur/Usd has now reacted to the negative new industrial order figures from 20 minutes earlier. The pair currently trades at 1.4357, off about 20 points.

Eurozone Industrial New Orders & PPI

Posted: 06 Jan 2010 12:59 AM PST

Eurozone New Industrial Orders m/m came in at -2.2%, weaker than the -1.0% expected. Y/Y came in at -14.5%, weaker than the -11.0% expected.

PPI m/m came in at 0.1%, weaker than the 0.2% expected and inline with last reading of 0.2%. Y/Y came in at -4.4%, slightly stronger than the -4.5% expected and stronger than prior reading of -6.7%.

Eur/Usd is trading just off its high at 1.4377. Thus far no major market reaction to figures.

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