Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- The 200 day MA pushed again in the EURUSD at 1.4281 but holds
- GBPUSD tests target at 1.6377. The 1.6380-86 risk.
- USDCAD falls back down from post rate move higher
- EURUSD bounces. Should be positive for the pair.
- Forex Morning Report - Jan 19th
- GBPUSD holds topside resistance but supported below too
- BOC leaves rates unchanged. Continue to see the rate remain steady until end of 2nd quarter
- Canada Leading Indicator for December rises by a 27 yr high 1.5%. BOC awaited.
- USDJPY tests 100 day MA/38.2% retracement target and bounces.
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.19.2010
- GBPUSDs big reversal. Back down testing 100 day moving average at 1.6310 and other support
- January 19th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
- EURUSD tests 200 day moving average at 1.4281. Key level.
- Eurozone & German ZEW Economic Sentiment
- German Finance Minster’s growth outlook
| The 200 day MA pushed again in the EURUSD at 1.4281 but holds Posted: 19 Jan 2010 07:15 AM PST
The 1.4281 level is being pushed again in the EURUSD as choppy action and cross activity in the EURGBP influence the bearish price action. Earlier today the price fell below this key daily moving average but could not break the low for 2010 at the 1.4257 (low reached 1.4262). This led to a sharp correction, but selling has returned. The EURGBP is having an effect on the pair as it continues to fall sharply. Yesteday the price closed below the 200 day MA and today that move continued as weaker data out of the Eurozone and stronger inflation in the UK had traders selling EURUSD and buying GBPUSD. In November the price dippled below this moving average for a single day but rebounded the next. The close below yesterday followed by an extension today attracted more selling interest.
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| GBPUSD tests target at 1.6377. The 1.6380-86 risk. Posted: 19 Jan 2010 06:58 AM PST As per the prior post, the GBPUSD had squeezed further higher to test the target resistance at the 1.6377 level. The level has attracted the low risk sellers with a stop either above the 100 bar MA or the 200 bar MA(blue and green line in the chart above) at the 1.6380 or 1.6386 levels respectively. On the downside, a break below the 1.6354 is needed to satisfy the bears today. This level stalled the rise earlier and is the 50% of the move down from the November high to the December low. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| USDCAD falls back down from post rate move higher Posted: 19 Jan 2010 06:51 AM PST
The USDCAD is back below the 200 hour MA but has support not far behind against the 1.0291 old floor and the 100 hour MA at the 1.0282 currently. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD bounces. Should be positive for the pair. Posted: 19 Jan 2010 06:42 AM PST
The EURUSD broke through the 200 day MA but could not get through the low from janaury 8th at 1.4263 nor the low from January 4th at 1.4257. The price has pushed back above the 200 day MA level at the 1.4281 level. Look for buyers on dips now, with stops beloow 1.4281. The topside targets 1.4319 (see chart below).
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| Forex Morning Report - Jan 19th Posted: 19 Jan 2010 06:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. Online Training today at 4pm. Sign up at http://forex.fxdd.com/webinars | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GBPUSD holds topside resistance but supported below too Posted: 19 Jan 2010 06:29 AM PST
The correction off the key support at the 1.6308-10 area (see prior post), led to a move to the topside resistance at the 1.6354 level (50% of the move down from the November high - see prior post for the chart). The price is now looking to test the key level once again. A move above will likely lead to further upside momentum with the next target being 1.6377 which was the high from yesterday and the 100 bar MA (blue line in chart above) at the 1.6383 currently but coming down. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BOC leaves rates unchanged. Continue to see the rate remain steady until end of 2nd quarter Posted: 19 Jan 2010 06:02 AM PST The USDCAD has move higher on the announcement. The price has moved above the 1.0308 resistance. Look for support against this level now. See prior post by clicking here | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Canada Leading Indicator for December rises by a 27 yr high 1.5%. BOC awaited. Posted: 19 Jan 2010 05:32 AM PST This is better than expected and the highest reading in 27 years. The gain is off higher household spending, housing and stock market gains. This is the 7th consecutive gains for the index. The Bank of Canada announces their interest rate decision at 9:00 AM this morning and it seems the market is awaiting the decison and comments before moving. The expectation is for no change. It will be curious to see if they say something about the currency rate as it remains near the highest levels since August 2008, or do they focus more on the growth prospects. Most expect that the BOC will be looking to tighten earlier than most countries on the back of higher oil and commodity prices and a global recovery.
From a technical basis the price is hanging around one of our key levels we have been following. The 1.0291 area was a floor off the hourly chart going back to January 6th (see chart above), but remains contained by the “goal posts” as defined by the 100 and 200 hour Moving Averages (blue and green lines in the hourly chart above). The 200 hour MA is at the 1.0308 level. The 100 hour MA is at the 1.0282 level. A move below the 100 hour MA should solicit more selling with a target at the low for the year at 1.0223. The low price for 2009 came in at 1.0205 which is also a key support level. Conversely, a move back above the 1.0308 level is likely to solicit some additional short covering with the next target at 1.0358. The fundamentals support a move lower, but sometimes the news is already prices in. So watch the key technical levels to provide the directional clues post the rate announcement. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| USDJPY tests 100 day MA/38.2% retracement target and bounces. Posted: 19 Jan 2010 05:13 AM PST
The USDJPY found support against the 38.2% retracement of the pairs move higher from the November low to the December high at the 90.34 level and also found support buyers near the the 100 day MA at the 90.41. The low today reached 90.30 for the day, but that push lower was short lived. The failure to develop downside momentum gave the profit takers and buyers a reason to buy and a low risk stop on a new low to cushion the trade.
The move back higher took the pair all the way up to test the 100 hour MA at the 91.04 level (high reached 91.03), where seller emerged against this key level. So the pair has now found our key support against the 100 day MA/38.2% retracement, and also found above a key resistance level against the 100 hour MA. With the price higher on the day (close yesterday at 90.77), and the price above the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart, the bias should be up. I would expect that there would be some support against the 90.75/77 level where the 38.2% retracement of the days range is found along with the close from yesterday (with stops below). Having said that, I do also expect sellers on rallies now against the 91.04 level (100 hour MA). It may be time for some consolidation that will allow the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart to catch up (blue line in the chart below).
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| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.19.2010 Posted: 19 Jan 2010 05:06 AM PST
The Euro fell against the USD as a report on German investor confidence printed lower than expected. This lead to speculation that the Euro Zone’s economic recovery is not as strong as initialy thought. Concerns in the EZ about Greece and other sovereign debt is causing overall dissapointment in the EZ and how it is being managed. World equity markets fell, and US futures are pointing to a lowwer opening this morning. Earnings are starting to hit the marketplace (65 companies on the S&P will report earnings this week). So far earnings have been somewhat dissapointing, and we will see the reaction to earnings season as the week goes on. Oil:$77.77 Gold:$1129.40 Today’s data:
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GBPUSDs big reversal. Back down testing 100 day moving average at 1.6310 and other support Posted: 19 Jan 2010 04:47 AM PST
The GBPUSD moved higher earlier today on Kraft/Cadbury merger agreement and the much higher than expected CPI. However, the market started to reverse and the sharp fall has taken the pair back toward the support at the 100 day MA which is currently at the 1.6310 (see chart above).
There is also a trendline support line which comes in off the hourly chart at 1.6303 currently, and finally the 100 hour MA off the same chart (blue line above)at 1.6308. The 3 levels of support will likely slow the decline. However, a break will likely lead to further downside momentum with a longer term target at the 1.6242. This level is the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the January low of 1.5896 to the high at 1.6456 today. See the hourly chart above. The big reversal also has the GBPUSD down on the day now with the close yesterday at the 1.6341 level being a level of resistance in early trading today. Additional resistance comes in at the 1.6354 level. This level is the midpoint of the move down from the November high to the December low.
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| January 19th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 19 Jan 2010 04:40 AM PST | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD tests 200 day moving average at 1.4281. Key level. Posted: 19 Jan 2010 04:26 AM PST
The EURUSD has been hit hard today on the back of the worse than expected ZEW data out of Germany and the EUROZONE. The move has taken the pair down to test the 200 day moving average at the 1.4281 level. Look for some profit taking support against the key level, but on a break the market should find additional momentum as the talk of a bear flag support being broken has gotten some market players excited for a move lower. The low in December is the next support at the 1.4217 level. On the topside, watch the 1.4320 and 1.4331 levels for resistance. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Eurozone & German ZEW Economic Sentiment Posted: 19 Jan 2010 02:30 AM PST The Eurozone & German ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey both came out weaker than expectations. The German number came in at 47.2, weaker than the 49.8 expected. Eurozone came in at 46.4, weaker than the 48.2 expected. Eur/Usd traded down to 1.4320 on negative data. The pair is currently trading at 1.4335. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| German Finance Minster’s growth outlook Posted: 19 Jan 2010 02:04 AM PST At the budget debate in Berlin German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble says he sees German GDP growth at 1%-3% in 2010 and 2011. He goes on to say the uncertainty over economic growth is substantial. Eur/Usd is trading substantilly lower since the news, currently at 1.4340. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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