Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Existing Home Sales plunge
- Forex Morning Report - Jan 25th
- USDCAD holds trendline support today and moves back above the KEY 100 day MA.
- $USDJPY watching the 100 day MA at the 90.33 level
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.25.2010
- GBPUSD tests 200 day MA (and other resistance) and comes off
- January 25th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
- $EURUSD pushes back above the 100 hour MA today
- Eur/Usd jumps above 100 hour M/A
- UK GfK German Consumer Climate
- USD Weaker Early
- Australian Producer Price Index
| Posted: 25 Jan 2010 07:05 AM PST Fall to 5.45M units from 6.54M annualized units. The expectation was for a fall to 5.90M. The month supply of homes rose to 7.2 months from 6.5 months. The home incentive was partly to blame for the fall. THe Median price did rise to $178,300 from $170,000 last month. The Average Price rose to $225,400 from $211,800. Overall, the numbers may be influence but still show weakness. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Morning Report - Jan 25th Posted: 25 Jan 2010 06:15 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. Next FXDD Online Training with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell Tuesday Jan 26th 2010 4pm Learn More… | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| USDCAD holds trendline support today and moves back above the KEY 100 day MA. Posted: 25 Jan 2010 05:57 AM PST The USDCAD held trendline support at the 1.0531 level earlier in the London session and bounced. The trendline has held for 3 separate hourly bars now and this increases the importance of the trendline overall. The pair has moved back above the 100 day MA on the bounce at the 1.0571 level which will now be watched as support. I would expect buyers on dips with stops below. On the topside the high at 1.0601 is the next target for the pair. A break of this level opens the door for a move to 1.0630 (low in August 2009), but a more substantial move higher would be eyed as the price has only closed above the 100 day moving average once since April 2009 and the move back above becomes a significant event for technicians. Targets includ 1.0785 and then the 200 day moving average at the 1.0948 level. As long as the price remains above the 100 day MA, momentum to the upside should continue as longer term traders get interested in the pair.
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| $USDJPY watching the 100 day MA at the 90.33 level Posted: 25 Jan 2010 05:24 AM PST The USDJPY is up testing the 100 day MA at the 90.33 level today. Also at the level is the 38.2% retracement level of the move up from the November low to January high. That level comes in at 90.34 and combined with the 100 day MA is a formidable resistance level for today. The high reached 90.33 today so far.
A break above this level should lead to a further move to the upside with the 90.57 level being the next target on the pair. This is the 38.2% retracement resistance level of the move down from last weeks high of 91.86 to the low at 90.77. On the 1 hour chart there has been 4 hourly bars over the last two days which have stopped at 90.31 to 90.33 which increase the importance of the topside resistance level (see hourly chart). I continue to look for low risk sellers with stops on a move above. On the downside, look for support against the 90.20 (100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart) and the 90.12 level (200 bar MA -green line in the chart below). In the NY session, the price dipped below the 100 bar MA but could not confirm the downside with a break of the 200 bar MA. This has led to a move back higher. With the failure and the range so tight, it seems like a probe above resistance is more likely this morning.
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| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.25.2010 Posted: 25 Jan 2010 05:22 AM PST
The JPY dropped as speculation rises that the Japanese Government may increase the purchase of government debt. They are looking to limit the growth of the JPY and safeguard the economic recovery. World equity markets were lower overnight-but US Futures are higher this morning as investors realize last weeks decline may of been overdone. Oil:$74.33 oil:$1097.60
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GBPUSD tests 200 day MA (and other resistance) and comes off Posted: 25 Jan 2010 05:02 AM PST
Overnight the GBPUSD tested the 200 day MA at the 1.6175 level today (high 1.6173). This is a key level to hold and will continue to be watched to gauge the overall bearish bias for the GBPUSD. The market will remained biased to the bearish side as long as rallies against this key level are held. The market also reached upside resistance in the 1.6175 area where the midpoint of the most recent trading range from the January low at 1.5895, to the January high at 1.6456 comes in at 1.6176 (see hourly chart below).
Finally, the 1.6175 area had upside resistance on the shorter term 5 minute chart. The resistance came in against the midpoint of the move down from Friday’s high to low range. That range comes in at the 1.6179 level.
So overall, the market had ample reason to sell with low risk against the 1.6175-79 area. The sellers came in and sold the pair back down to a low in early NY trade to 1.6139. Watch the 1.6125 support where the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found. If the level is broken, it would help confirm the downward bias and we should see further downside pressure for the pair with the 1.6109 area being the next trendline target support (5 minute chart). If the support holds, look for the market to have a battle between the 1.6141 and the 1.6125 level where the respective 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found. The first level to give way should control the bias. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| January 25th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 25 Jan 2010 04:40 AM PST | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| $EURUSD pushes back above the 100 hour MA today Posted: 25 Jan 2010 04:39 AM PST
The EURUSD pushed above the 100 hour MA today, continuing the correction started last Thursday. The price moved above the level for the 1st time since January 15th at the 1.4161 level and this pushed the price up to the high for the day at the 1.4193 level. The topside has resistance next at the trendline at the 1.4206 level currently. The next target on a break comes in at the 1.4239 level. The 200 day MA comes in at the 1.4294 level today. This is a key upside level that the bears will have to stay below.
ON the downside, the price has corrected back to the 100 hour MA at the 1.4159 level. Below that level today is the close from Friday at 1.4140 and the trendline at 1.4139 (see hourly chart above). The 1.4117 level (38.2% of the 2009 low to high range), will be eyed as key support. A break of this should lead to a test of the lows reached last week if the price can remain below this key level. Overall, the market is consolidating/correcting. We will be watching the key levels outlined as support/resistance. If the levels give way look for the next targets to confirm the directional move of the action. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Eur/Usd jumps above 100 hour M/A Posted: 25 Jan 2010 03:07 AM PST In the last hour of trading Eur/Usd has jumped above its 100 hour M/A of 1.4165. The 61.8% fibo lies at 1.4187. This level may act as temporary resistance. A break above there should bring the pair up to 1.4225-30 level which is an area of recent hourly highs. If the pair pulls back below its 100 hour M/A, 1.4125-30 should be a good level of support. The former scenario appears more likely.
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| UK GfK German Consumer Climate Posted: 24 Jan 2010 11:04 PM PST The market showed limited reaction to the GfK Consumer out of Germany whos reading was in line with it’s forecast of 3.2; down just slightly from its prior reading of 3.3. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 24 Jan 2010 06:56 PM PST To start the new trading week, the USD is moving lower against the risk pairs as US equity futures trade higher and US treasuries move lower ahead of the US GDP report and FOMC rate decision expected to close out the final week of January. For the EUR/USD pair we’ve seen it move north to the short-term 38.2% retracement ahead of the 100 hour moving average.
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| Australian Producer Price Index Posted: 24 Jan 2010 04:39 PM PST The 4th quarter Aussie Producer Price Index came in lower than expected, but had a limited effect on the price of AUD. The details of the release are as follows: Producer Price Index (QoQ) - Survey:0.1% Actual: Prior:0.1% Producer Price Index (YoY) - Survey:-0.9% Actual: Prior:0.2% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Goodtures,stocks, Morning:
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