Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- $EURUSD also breaks back below key moving average support
- Wholesale Inventories rise 1.5%. Prior month revised higher
- GBPUSD breaks below support at 1.6058/70 area and back testing 100 and 200 Hr MA
- Forex Morning Report - Jan 8th
- GBPUSD tests 200 day MA at 1.6096
- USDCHF tests 100 day MA level at 1.0290. Key level
- EURUSD stops at 100 and 200 hour MA level. Watch the level
- The GBPUSD down testing support after spike higher
- US Employment comes worse in than expected
- GBPUSD key level to watch through the NFP 1.6012
- $EURUSD key support at the 200 day MA through the number
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.8.2010
- NFP to dominate the activity this morning.
- January 8th 2009 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
| $EURUSD also breaks back below key moving average support Posted: 08 Jan 2010 06:01 AM PST
The EURUSD has also moved back lower - falling below the support at the 100 hour MA at the 1.4373 level and the midpoint of the recent high low range at the 1.4350 level. The talk is that there may have been a harshweather effect that caused the NFP to be lower by about 112k jobs (Construction, service, etc) The idea is this should come in next month (assuming the weather normalises).
Now with the price below the above support levels, the bias is back to bearish. Support comes in at the 1.4295 level. The London/Europe close is up next (11-12 NY Time). Overall though, the EURUSD bear flag remains in tact, but so does the consolidated trading range. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Wholesale Inventories rise 1.5%. Prior month revised higher Posted: 08 Jan 2010 05:56 AM PST The price month was revised higher to +0.6%. This data is for October and November and should increase GDP for the 4Q. This should strengthen the dollar. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GBPUSD breaks below support at 1.6058/70 area and back testing 100 and 200 Hr MA Posted: 08 Jan 2010 05:47 AM PST
The GBBPUSD broke through the support level from the prior post after testing the 200 day MA key resistance level and have moved back down to the next support level against the 100 and 200 hour MA. Look for profit taking buyers against the level, but the correction lower takes steam out of the initial spike higher. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Morning Report - Jan 8th Posted: 08 Jan 2010 05:15 AM PST | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GBPUSD tests 200 day MA at 1.6096 Posted: 08 Jan 2010 04:54 AM PST
The GBPUSD has continued the move higher and is testing the 200 day MA at the 1.6096. This is another key level to be aware of today. A move above should continue the bullish trading bias. Support now comes in at the 1.6060/70 level
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| USDCHF tests 100 day MA level at 1.0290. Key level Posted: 08 Jan 2010 04:43 AM PST
The USDCHF is back down testing the 100 day MA at the 1.0290 level. A move below the level should be bearish for the pair and lead to additional selling. On the topside, look for resistance at the 1.0297 which was the 61.8% retracement of the last move higher and 1.0313 which is the 50% retracement level in the pair. I would not expect a rebound above these levels if the bearish bias is to continue to trend lower..
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| EURUSD stops at 100 and 200 hour MA level. Watch the level Posted: 08 Jan 2010 04:37 AM PST
The EURUSD pushed higher and stalled initially at the 100 and 200 hour MA at the 1.4373 area. This is a key level. A move above should lead to higher levels. Watch support at 1.4350 and below that at the 1.4334. The price should not go below this level.
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| The GBPUSD down testing support after spike higher Posted: 08 Jan 2010 04:33 AM PST
The GBPUSD is off the highs but remains above support at the 1.6012 level where the 100 and 200 hour MA are found. Look for support against the level, with stops on a move back below. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| US Employment comes worse in than expected Posted: 08 Jan 2010 04:26 AM PST NFP: -85K The revisions were a wash. The headline for December was worse. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GBPUSD key level to watch through the NFP 1.6012 Posted: 08 Jan 2010 04:19 AM PST
The 100 and 200 hour MA are converged at the 1.6012. We will watch this level through the number. The bias is bullish if the price moves above and bearish if the price moves lower away from the value. Look for retracements on breaks but know the risk/stop levels as risk and volatility increases. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| $EURUSD key support at the 200 day MA through the number Posted: 08 Jan 2010 04:11 AM PST
The market will be focused on the 200 day MA at the 1.4242 through the number. On the topside, watch 1.4373. This is the 100 hour MA.
Those are the key levels to watch through after the number. A move above the 1.4373 level should be bullish. A move below 1.4242 should continue the bearish bias. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.8.2010 Posted: 08 Jan 2010 04:04 AM PST
The USD rose slightly ahead of this morning’s jobs report. Speculation that the FED is considering a move towards ending the stimulus measures that were put into place last year to combat recession, will depend on positive US economic data reported durung the next few months. World equity markets were mostly higher overnight as speculation that this morning’s jobs data will show that the US has stopped losing jobs for the first time in 2 years. . US Futures are virtually flat ahead of this morning’s data. Oil:$82.28 Gold:$1126.20
HAVE A GREAT DAY-GREAT WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NFP to dominate the activity this morning. Posted: 08 Jan 2010 03:53 AM PST The expectation is for unchanged NFP vs a decline of -11K last month and a decline of -111 in November. Both prior numbers can be revised (and are often revised), so be aware. Last month the prior 2 months were revised higher. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 10.0%. The Hourly earnings are expected to rise by 0.2%. The Manufacturing Payroll is expected to show a -35K decline and the avg work week is expected to stay unchanged at 33.2 hours. Temporary workers will be watched for clues to future employment gains. The last 4 months have shown gains with last month adding 52K. Temporary workers have the potential to add to future employment. Also watch the level of unemployment that includes discouraged or underemployed. This has been hovering above 16%. As a guide, the Fed since 1980 has required an 3 month average of around +250K jobs before then tightened rates. The current 3 month average is -87K. In the past the Fed has been lowering rates when the 3 month average goes below 0. As a result, the Fed tightening is still a ways off. However, it does not mean that the expected tightening cycle does not get moved up on a stronger number. This is what the market will trade off today. The reaction by the market can do anything. We have seen stronger numbers lead to a weaker dollar (as there was a flight into the riskier currency pairs). We have seen stronger numbers lead to a stronger dollar and visa versa. My guess is a stronger number (stronger revisions) leads to a stronger dollar and a weaker number leads to a weaker dollar. However, risk is increased and therefore it is advised to lessen positions and wait for the trend to establish itself after the number. For the key technical levels to watch for post the report, view the morning commentary by clicking here. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| January 8th 2009 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 08 Jan 2010 03:49 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. The report looks at the NFP and the key levels to watch after the data is released. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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