Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• New Home Sales come in weaker than expected
• Factory Orders revised lower due to a processing error
• $GBPUSD tests key support at 1.6190. Next support at 1.6172.
• Forex Morning Report - Jan 27th
• EURUSD falls in NY trade. May look to buy time as the market awaits the Fed
• GBPUSD continues it’s volatile up and down ways
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.27.2010
• January 27th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for trading
• FXDD Online Training Jan 28 2010 4PM Register
• UK CBI Realized Sales
• Sterling ascends above 100 hour M/A
• MPC Member Sentance Comments….
• ECB’s Weber on the wires
• 1-27 Economic Calendar
• Excerpts From Geithner’s House Testimony Tomorrow

New Home Sales come in weaker than expected Posted: 27 Jan 2010 07:13 AM PST The New Home Sales came in much weaker than expected at 342K from a revised 370K.  This is less than the expectations at 366k. The month supply rose to 8.1 months from 7.6 months.

Factory Orders revised lower due to a processing error Posted: 27 Jan 2010 06:44 AM PST November Factory Orders revised down from +1.1 to +0.6%. The revision was due to a processing error revising seasonable adjustments Durable Goods was revised to -0.7 from +0.2% November non defense excluding aircraft was revised to +2.7 from +3.6%

$GBPUSD tests key support at 1.6190. Next support at 1.6172. Posted: 27 Jan 2010 06:32 AM PST The 100 day MA, and the 38.2% retracement of the days range make the level an important level (SEE PRIOR POST).  The price has dipped below the key level as the stock market opens up.  The Dow is opening up -30 points and the early trade is keeping the pressure on the pair.  The next target on the downside is the 1.6172 level where the 100 hour MA is found.  A move through this level should add fuel to the bearish fire.  IF the price holds however, we could see the short covering rally as market participants remain nervous.

Forex Morning Report - Jan 27th Posted: 27 Jan 2010 06:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. JANUARY 26 2010 FXDD Online Training -Click Here to watch the rebroadcast

EURUSD falls in NY trade. May look to buy time as the market awaits the Fed Posted: 27 Jan 2010 06:00 AM PST   The EURUSD is back down on the day, falling below the 1.4071 closing level from yesterday.  The pair is back below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart which gives it a bias to the downside.  There is support at the 1.4045 level which is the low from August 2009. Yesterday, the low reached 1.4042. This should also be support.   There may be support against these levels (profit takers). ON the topside watch the 1.4062 level now.

GBPUSD continues it’s volatile up and down ways Posted: 27 Jan 2010 05:28 AM PST No relief for the GBPUSD.  For the 4th day the price has reversed the prior day and is back above the 200 day MA which comes in today at the 1.6190 level.  The price has now closed below, above, below and now back above the key moving average level (assuming the level holds above today).  The action is a way the market is saying it does not know what is the next trend for the GBPUSD.  During these markets being patient is the key.  Look for key intraday levels and be sure to manage stops appropriately.  That is, when the trade is initialized have a reason to trade, and know your exact stop.  If the price does not do what it is supposed to do from your plan, get out.  On the profit exit, be sure to look for targets in the direction of the trade. If the price can not get through the target, take some partial profit and have another logical stop for the balance.   The goal is to survive without taking a big hit. Looking at the hourly chart, the price tested the 200 bar MA at the 1.6248 level in early NY trade and has moved lower.  The last corrective low for the pair intraday came in at 1.6199 and that will be eyed as initial intraday support area.  The buying at 1.6199 was early buying against support from the 200 day MA (at 1.6190) and is also the 38.2% retracement of the days sharp move higher today.  The level also corresponds with the initial low from yesterday’s volatile trade (see 5 minute chart above).  With so many key levels congregated at the price, this will be the key support level for today.  On the top, the 1.6248 area is still the level to watch as the 200 bar MA is found at the level along with trendline resistance at 1.6253 (see chart below).

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.27.2010 Posted: 27 Jan 2010 05:16 AM PST Good Morning: With speculation that the world wide economic recovery is slowing, the JPY has been one of the main benefactor as their currency rises, and investors look at the JPY as a refuge.  With the EZ having some problems with certain member countries sovereign debt, the Euro will stay under pressure. GBP rose on speculation that the UK government may pause their bond purchase program. World equity markets fell, and US futures are slightly higher.  Equity markets, like all markets, are concerned that the global recovery is losing traction and may falter. The FOMC has been meeting, and we will be expecting a statement at 2:15 PM this afternoon. The FOMC is expected to keep interest rates stable-and all eyes will be on any change in their wording of the economy. Oil:$75.06                                      Gold:$1096.30 Today’ Data: TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES  DEC. 370K 355K 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES MoM DEC. 4.20% -11.30% 2:15P.M. FOMC RATE DECISION         HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

January 27th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for trading Posted: 27 Jan 2010 05:02 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

FXDD Online Training Jan 28 2010 4PM Register Posted: 27 Jan 2010 05:00 AM PST FXDD Online Training Thursday Jan 28th 2010 4PM. Register

UK CBI Realized Sales Posted: 27 Jan 2010 03:05 AM PST UK CBI Realized Sales came in at -8, weaker than the 11 expected and the prior reading of 13. Not much reaction by the pound to this negative figure as Gbp/Usd unchanged at 1.6220.

Sterling ascends above 100 hour M/A Posted: 27 Jan 2010 02:10 AM PST On the heels of commentary from the UK’s Sentance, Gbp/Usd has ascended above its 100 hour M/A of 1.6172. We may see some resistance in the area of 1.6207 which is a trendline of old hourly lows. A break above this level can bring the pair to its 200 hour M/a of 1.6245. If this level holds a pullback at least to 1.6272 is likely.

MPC Member Sentance Comments…. Posted: 27 Jan 2010 01:39 AM PST Speaking at the British Property Federation in London, MPC member Sentance made the following comments. It is difficult to keep CPI on target if there is high services inflation and rising import prices. Cannot rely on goods deflation to hold down CPI. There is a large amount of uncertainty around CPI outlook. Business surveys suggest margin of spare capacity is not as high as expected. If the headwinds from the crisis continue, there will be downside risk to fiscal tightening  and CPI risks. A stronger global economy will cause more upward pressure on CPI. There is a risk that fiscal policy will tighten more aggressively after election. The pace of the recovery is very uncertain, but a double0dip recession should be avoided.

ECB’s Weber on the wires Posted: 27 Jan 2010 01:29 AM PST ECB’s Weber has made following comments: - economy recovering at modest pace - confident governments in Eurozone will reduce deficits - ECB can take further exit steps before second half -inflation to accelerate, not to exceed 2% - ECB rates are “appropriate” - confident about Greece deficit plan Eur/Usd has now reversed its course and is up about 30 points from its lows, currently trading at 1.4058

1-27 Economic Calendar Posted: 26 Jan 2010 09:12 PM PST

Excerpts From Geithner’s House Testimony Tomorrow Posted: 26 Jan 2010 07:23 PM PST AIG rescue not aimed at protecting certain firms. AIG failure would’ve been ‘catastrophic’ for US. Gov’t helped stabilize the system and restore credit. AIG is ’substantially better’ than 12 months ago. AIG insurance units are ‘generating positive returns.’ Gov’t may recover more than expected from AIG. Gov’t loans to AIG will be ‘fully repaid.’ US AIG aid saved the economy and not counterparties. ‘Overwhelming force’ needed to combat crisis.

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