Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Canada Ivey falls sharply to 48.4. $USDCAD rises sharply.
- $AUDUSD bouncing higher after correction
- Forex Morning Report - Jan 7th
- EURUSD still in a range with a bearish bias
- Initial Claims come in at 434K. As expected.
- Another test of the 1.5895 level in the GBPUSD holds
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.7.2009
- USDJPY moves toward key resistance against 200 day MA
- BOE keeps rates unchanged. Keeps bond purchase at 200B pounds. GBPUSD finds some short covering.
- Janaury 7th 2009 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
- BoE leaves rates unchanged; Q.E. for one more month
- German Factory Orders off expectations
- Eurozone retail sales poor
- Halifax House Prices (UK)
| Canada Ivey falls sharply to 48.4. $USDCAD rises sharply. Posted: 07 Jan 2010 05:58 AM PST
The expectation was for a decline to 52.0 from 55.9 but the fall to 48.4 was a surprise. The fall has led to a sharp rise in the USDCAD with the price moving above the 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 5 mnute chart at the 1.0322 and 1.0325 levels respectively. The key target on the topside remains the 1.0405/15 area. Look for buyers on dips now with support at the 1.0325 key. | ||||||||||||||||||
| $AUDUSD bouncing higher after correction Posted: 07 Jan 2010 05:31 AM PST
In Australia last night, Retail Sales came up higher than expectations at +1.4% versus the expectations of a gain of 0.3%. Leading the gains was spending on clothes which rose 2.5 percent, household goods sales rose by 1.7 percent and food sales rose by 1.6%. The MoM gain was the largest increase in 8 months and initially led to a sharp rise in the AUDUSD. However, profit taking entered with the dollar buying, and the AUDUSD fell. The correction took the price down to the 61.8% retracement support of the two day rally. Now the price is recovering. The price moved back above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 0.9187 level and looks to test the 200 bar MA on same chart at the 0.9202 (see chart above). The bias turned positive above the 100 bar MA (0.9187 currently) and the bullish bias will be further confirmed on a move above the 0.9202 level. The fundamentals support the move. Let’s see if the technicals can do the same. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Morning Report - Jan 7th Posted: 07 Jan 2010 05:15 AM PST | ||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD still in a range with a bearish bias Posted: 07 Jan 2010 04:41 AM PST
The EURUSD remains contained by the range that has prevailed for the last few trading weeks. The high/low range over the period comes in at the 1.4484 to 1.4217, with an inside range of 1.4446 and 1.4261 (see chart levels above). The midpoint of the range comes in at the 1.4350 level. The 100 and 200 bar moving average on the hourly chart comes in at the 1.4382 and 1.4374 levels respectively. With the price below the midpoint (1.4350) and the 100 and 200 hour moving averages (1.4374 and 1.4382), the bias is to the downside for the pair as we continue to look for a trendline like move, with a break out of the range. The next targets on the downside that needs to be broken are the 1.4261 level and then the low at 1.4217. Non trend markets tend to develop a feeling that all levels are important and will not be broken. They have the potential to start to trend on breaks. So be aware. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Initial Claims come in at 434K. As expected. Posted: 07 Jan 2010 04:31 AM PST Continuing Claims come in at 4802K. Both are in line with expectations but suggest a employment situation that is getting better slowly but surely. The next stop, the US monthly employment report to be released tomorrow at 8:30. The expectation is for no new Non Farm Payroll jobs added or subtracted. This would be the first non negative number since December 2007. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Another test of the 1.5895 level in the GBPUSD holds Posted: 07 Jan 2010 04:25 AM PST
The GBPUSD pounded on the 1.5895 support level again and moved back higher. The levels importance is increased on each successful test. The 1.5936 level and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.5941 level currently are still targets. Above that 1.5957 comes into play. The market is testing the will of the bears at this level.
Longer term, as long as the bias remains to the downside, the longer term target for the GBPUSD is the 1.5833 level (low from November) and below that level the 1.5689 which is the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the January 2009 low to the high reached in early August 2009 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.7.2009 Posted: 07 Jan 2010 04:20 AM PST
On his first day as Japan’s Finance Minister, Naoto Kan made comments that he would welcome a weaker JPY. His wish came true as the JPY fell. Kan’s concern is that a rising JPY may hurt the Japanese economy at a time when global economies are starting to see the light at the end of the “recession tunnel”. World equity markets fell as comments by Chinese central bankers stated that they will be focusing on controlling record loan growth in 2010. This concerned investors about the pace of economic growth not only in China but worldwide. Oil:$82.29 Gold:$ 1129.10 Today’s Data:
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK | ||||||||||||||||||
| USDJPY moves toward key resistance against 200 day MA Posted: 07 Jan 2010 04:19 AM PST
The USDJPY is moving higher this morning on the back of new Finance Ministers comment that he supports a weaker Yen. The price is approaching key resistance against the 200 day MA at the 93.56 level. There should be sellers against the levels with stops if the key moving average can be broken. This level today will be the key level for the USDJPY.
Intraday support comes in at the 50% retracement of the move down from the April 2009 high to the November 2009 low (see Daily Chart above). Further downside support would come at the 92.90 level which is the 38.2% retracement of the days trading range. The USDJPY is somewhat overbought at the moment as evidence from the distance between the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line above) and the current price. With key 200 day MA resistance looming, look for some slowing/consolidation of the move higher. This will allow the moving averages to catch up with the market price. From that point the market can decide if it wants to extend higher or correct further. | ||||||||||||||||||
| BOE keeps rates unchanged. Keeps bond purchase at 200B pounds. GBPUSD finds some short covering. Posted: 07 Jan 2010 03:37 AM PST
The BOE decision to keep the bond purchase steady at 200B pounds has given the GBPUSD a little boost after falling sharply overnight. The pair has found some support at the 1.5900 level (with a double low off the 5 minute chart at the 1.5895 level). However, the bias continues to be down for the pair with the price moving away from range that has confined the trading over the last few days. If the 1.5895 lows hold, there is topside resistance this morning at the 1.5936 level where the low from yesterday is found (1 on chart) . The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute comes in at 1.5950 currently (and moving down - 2 on chart). The 38.2% of the move down today comes in at 1.5957 (3 on chart). | ||||||||||||||||||
| Janaury 7th 2009 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 07 Jan 2010 03:24 AM PST | ||||||||||||||||||
| BoE leaves rates unchanged; Q.E. for one more month Posted: 07 Jan 2010 03:00 AM PST BoE leaves official bank rate unchanged at 0.5%. Quantitative Easing program to take one more month to complete. Q.E. stays at 200 bln sterling. Gbp/Usd trading at session lows of 1.5898. | ||||||||||||||||||
| German Factory Orders off expectations Posted: 07 Jan 2010 02:04 AM PST German Factory Orders m/m came in at 0.2%, weaker than the 1.6% expected, but an improvement over the -2.1% prior reading. Bad news for the Euro as this session’s theme of buying dollars continues. Eur/Usd is down to 1.4335, a new low. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 07 Jan 2010 12:58 AM PST Eurozone retail sales m/m came in at -1.2%, weaker than the 0.0% expected and 0.0% prior reading. Earlier in the session German retail sales came in very poor setting the stage for poor eurozone figures. Eur/Usd sold off 10 minutes prior to release. the market was surely anticipating a negative number. The pair currently trades at 1.4353. | ||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 06 Jan 2010 11:58 PM PST Halifax HPI m/m came in at 1.0%, stronger than the 0.55 expected, but weaker than the prior reading of 1.4%. Gbp/Usd was at its lows at time of release of better than expected figure. The pair is up 20 points thus far , trading at 1.5932. | ||||||||||||||||||
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