Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• S & P No longer classifies the UK among the most stable global banking systems
• Greece PM Papandreou says don’t need to borrow from EU. EURUSD comes under more pressure.
• Free online training today - Register in advance 4pm
• Forex Morning Report - Jan 28th
• USDJPY rebounds off support. Watching intraday resistance levels
• USDCAD watching 100 hour MA now, after 100 day MA was tested below and held
• Jobless Claims are worse than expected. Durable Goods mixed. USDJPY gets hit to support.
• GBPUSD watching support at intraday MA levels at 1.6232/34
• Durable Goods and Initial Claims due at 8:30 AM
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.28.2010
• January 28th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Eurozone Economic and Business Climate
• UK’s Darling on the wires….
• German Unemployment
• Gbp/Jpy trading in between 100 and 200 hour M/A

S & P No longer classifies the UK among the most stable global banking systems Posted: 28 Jan 2010 07:06 AM PST On a newswire report, S & P no longer classifies the UK among the most stable global banking systems. This should lead to a rise in the EURGBP.  The pair is up testing the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 0.8623 level.  A break above should lead to higher level with the 200 bar MA on the same chart coming in at 0.8939.  Watch the key level as the EURGBP has been pressured for most of the trading day. On the hourly chart the pair has also been pressured for a while now. During that time the price has been remaining below the 200 hour MA  (green line in the chart below).

Greece PM Papandreou says don’t need to borrow from EU. EURUSD comes under more pressure. Posted: 28 Jan 2010 06:50 AM PST There has been rumors that China would lend Greece funds, but that is unconfirmed. It would be curious if that would happen as it would increase the risk of the debt portfolio when they complain about the risk of the US debt. Granted it would increase the yield and perhaps they would feel that risks are balanced out, but it would be a curious move. Anyway, the comments have pressured the EURUSD over the last few minutes as the price moves below the low from yesterday at the 1.3993 level.  The low reached earlier today extended all the way down to the 1.3936 level. During that plunge the market corrected to 1.3980, fell to 1.3956 before moving to the highs for the day.  Those levels become the next target levels on the downside. On the upside, we will now watch the 1.3993 level and above that level the 1.4012 level which is the 100 and 200 bar MA level on the 5 minute chart. Longer term, the EURUSD is moving steadily lower.  The market is now in the middle of the consolidation range that held the defined the period in periods of May, June and July of 2009.  The low end comes in around the 1.3800 level. This is also the midpoint of the 2009 low to high range (see chart below).  This is a longer term target as long as the price can remain low.

Free online training today - Register in advance 4pm Posted: 28 Jan 2010 06:49 AM PST Get signed up early for the 4pm Webinar today. Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell will be teaching a class on how to limit risk in your trading. While never possible to win on every trade, there are proven ways to limit downside potential. Register here for the class. You must register in advance to take advantage of this special online training >>> Get signed up here

Forex Morning Report - Jan 28th Posted: 28 Jan 2010 06:40 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

USDJPY rebounds off support. Watching intraday resistance levels Posted: 28 Jan 2010 06:33 AM PST The 100 and  200 bar MA comes in at 90.22 and 90.26 on the 5 minute chart.  The 100 day MA comes in at 90.24 (CLICK HERE TO SEE PRIOR POST).  These levels should attract sellers, with stops on a move above the 90.36 level for the pair (see chart above).   The stock market is opening up but marginally.  There are some good earnings reports which have helped a bit.  This has offset the weaker economic data released earlier.  If the level holds  a move back to test the 100 hour MA at 89.92 may be in the cards for the pair.

USDCAD watching 100 hour MA now, after 100 day MA was tested below and held Posted: 28 Jan 2010 05:55 AM PST   The 100 day MA in the USDCAD was tested this morning at 1.0565 (low extended to 1.0554 but bounced). The price is now up testing the 100 hour MA at 1.0597.  Watch this level and look for initial sellers against the level.  The pair will need to move back below 1.0585 to solicit another test of the 1.0565 level.  However, a move above should lead to further upside move in the pair.  The 1.6011 level is a key level to get through on a break back higher.   The pair is at a key level.  Be on alert.

Jobless Claims are worse than expected. Durable Goods mixed. USDJPY gets hit to support. Posted: 28 Jan 2010 05:33 AM PST The Jobless claims fell to 470K but was higher than expectation at 450K The Durable Goods came in at +0.3 which was less than expected (+2.0%) but ex Transportation came out better at +0.9% vs expectations of +0.5%. USDJPY and Yen crosses have fallen on the higher jobless claims numbers and has moved the pair below the 90.00 level. Yesterdays 5 PM close came in at 89.98.    There is also support against the 100 hour MA at 89.93 (see chart above - blue line). The price is finding buyers against this key level as it is a low risk trade for them.  Stops are likely on a move below the level. On the topside there is resistance at 90.17 now.  Also above is the 100 day MA at the 90.24 level and earlier today we created at triple top at 90.55 which will be a key level to watch going forward should the market move above the other resistance levels.

GBPUSD watching support at intraday MA levels at 1.6232/34 Posted: 28 Jan 2010 05:25 AM PST The GBPUSD has been tracking the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart currently at the 1.6232 level.  At the ares is also the 200 hour MA which is currently at the 1.6234 level.  This will be key support for the pair today.  The bias remains up for the pair above these two key moving average levels with 1.6282 and 1.6311 upside targets.

Durable Goods and Initial Claims due at 8:30 AM Posted: 28 Jan 2010 05:16 AM PST Initial Claims are expected to improve to 450K from a surprising increase to 488K last week.   The move back down would bring the level back down to where it has been congregating.  Continuing Claims are expected to remain steady at 4593k vs 4599K last week. Durable Goods are expected to rebound by 2.0% for the headline and by 0.5% ex Transportation.  The Durable Goods was revised lower along with Factory Orders yesterday on the back of a calculation error.  The data is a volatile series as it includes high ticket items which can skew month on month figures.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.28.2010 Posted: 28 Jan 2010 05:04 AM PST Good Morning: The EUR/USD pair fell below 1.40 , trading at 1.3936  during the overnight hours. Comments from China’s central bank that they should not purchase Greece’s debt-added pressure on the Euro. Yesterday the FOMC’s statement commented that the US economy is in “recovery”, and that they will continue to keep interest rates at record lows. World equity markets were higher-and US Futures are pointing to a higher opening this morning. Ford and Procter & Gamble reported better that expected Q4 earnings. Oil:$74.25                                      Gold:$1092.40 TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30A.M. CHICAGO FED NAT ACTIVITY INDEX DEC. -0.40 -0.32 8:30A.M. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS DEC. 2.00% 0.20% 8:30A.M. DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION DEC. 0.50% 2.00% 8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS JAN.23 450K 482K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS JAN.16 4593K 4599K HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

January 28th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 28 Jan 2010 04:55 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

Eurozone Economic and Business Climate Posted: 28 Jan 2010 02:08 AM PST Eurozone Business Climate Indicator came in at -1.12, weaker than the -1.10 expected but stronger than the -1.22 prior reading and this is the highest reading since October 2008. Industry Confidence came in at -14, stronger than the -15 expected and -16 prior reading. Consumer Confidence came in at -16, weaker than the -15 expected. Economic Confidence came in at 95.7, stronger than the 92.3 expected and prior reading of 94.1. Overall positive data for the Euro although Eur/Usd relatively unchanged at 1.4030.

UK’s Darling on the wires…. Posted: 28 Jan 2010 01:40 AM PST UK Chancellor Darling has released the following statements: Any bank regulations should be global to prevent regulatory arbitrage. It is important we work with U.S and other partners on financial regulation. He is concerned with the slow progress on Basel capital adequacy rules. 2010 should be about implementation of what G20 agreed on last year. U.S has credible deficit reduction plans.

German Unemployment Posted: 28 Jan 2010 01:02 AM PST Euro caught a slight bid on the release of a slightly better than expected unemployment number out of Germany, which came in at 6K versus its forecast of 17K.

Gbp/Jpy trading in between 100 and 200 hour M/A Posted: 27 Jan 2010 11:21 PM PST Gbp/Jpy has been a high flyer in recent days. Currently the pair is trading in between its 100 and 200 hour M/A with momentum to the upside. The pair should find resistance around 146.55, a trendline of old hourly highs. If it breaks above then its 200 hour M/A of 146.83 should act as added resistance. To the downside the 61.8 fibo lies at 145.87 with better support beneath in the form of its 100 hour M/A at 145.40 , with help from the 50% fibo at 145.42.

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