Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Chicago PMI is rumored to be 58.8 which is worse than expected.
• EURUSD in a steep channel up
• Forex Morning Report - March 31 2010
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.31.2010
• Next Online Trading Class Thurs April 1 2010 4pm
• USDCAD moves lower on the better data
• Canada GDP up 0.6%. Better than expected.
• USDJPY falls below the 93.12
• ADP comes in much weaker
• Rebroadcast of Tuesday’s Online Trading Class
• ADP expected to show a gain of 40K.
• Eurozone Unemployment highest since August 1998
• Eurozone CPI
• German Unemployment Change better than expected
• French Producer Prices

Chicago PMI is rumored to be 58.8 which is worse than expected. Posted: 31 Mar 2010 06:45 AM PDT The USDJPY should move lower off the data.  The midpoint of the move up from yesterdays low comes in at the 92.85. Resistance comes in at the 93.12. This is the 50% of the 2009 high to low range.

EURUSD in a steep channel up Posted: 31 Mar 2010 06:28 AM PDT The EURUSD trended higher today off the back of better employment out of Germany and higher CPI Flash data out of Eurozone.  The pair has been following a channel to the upside with current trendline support at the 1.3492 level and the upper trendline at the 1.3527 level.  Other support to watch comes in at 1.3482 which is the 61.8% retraceement of the move up from the 2009 low to the 2009 off the daily chart.  The trend is up today unless the trendline breaks.

Forex Morning Report - March 31 2010 Posted: 31 Mar 2010 06:25 AM PDT Click on the post to watch the video

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.31.2010 Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:45 AM PDT Good Morning: I have been away for a few days with my family, and have kept abreast of the economic and political woes of the world.  With bombings in Russia and the EU still unclear of the debt issues within the Euro-Zone, the news has been anything but boring. Moody’s made comments that many EU countries need “brutal” budget adjustments in the near future to avaod debt explosion.  The JPY fell along with the USD.  The JPY dropped overnight as economists are looking for a positive ADP payroll report this morning.  Unexpectedly the ADP report showed a drop of 23K-which turned the USD negative.  Asian equity markets fell, and European markets rose.  USD futures are slightly lower this morning. Oil:$83.07                                   Gold:$1109.90  7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS 26-Mar -4.20% 8:15A.M. ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE MARCH 40K -20K 9:45A.M. CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER MARCH 61.O 62.6O 10:00A.M. FACTORY ORDERS FEB. 0.50% 1.70% 10:00A.M. NAPM-MLWAUKEE MARCH 58.O 56.O HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Next Online Trading Class Thurs April 1 2010 4pm Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:41 AM PDT >> FXDD Webinar Trading Class is Thursday, April 1st 2010 at 4pm Register Here

USDCAD moves lower on the better data Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:40 AM PDT GDP rose better than expected. That coupled with the lower dollar tone has the pair moving back down. However,we are seeing a rebound off the lows.  Nevertheless, the stronger data should bring back into focus the parity level back for the pair.  If the US has a weak employment report that mimics the ADP report this morning and the Canada data continues to show strength, the trend for the pair seems firm. Oil is also up above $83 which is also a benefit. The BOC has said that the rates would remain the same through the 2nd quarter.  They seem on target to keeping that promise. From a technical basis, look for resistance at the 1.0160-66 level today. The 50% of the days range and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is at the level.

Canada GDP up 0.6%. Better than expected. Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:31 AM PDT The expectation was for a 0.5% gain. The USDCAD is continuing its move higher on the news. The gains versus Dec were stronger in most categories.  The only decline was a small decline in Services which fell from +0.5% in December to +0.4% in January. Real GDP 0.6% vs 0.5% Goods 1.3% vs 0.5% Manufacturing 1.9% vs 1.2% Services 0.4% vs 0.5% Wholesale 2.9% vs 1.7% Ind. production 1.3% vs 0.5% Energy 0.7% vs -0.3%

USDJPY falls below the 93.12 Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:18 AM PDT The 50% retracement of the move down from the 2009 high to the low comes in at 93.12. The market has moved back down to test this level.  Look for some sellers against this level with stops on a move above 93.18 The next target will come in at 92.85. Better support comes in at the 92.65-92.72 area which was a base yesterday and where the 100 hour MA on the 5 minute chart comes in (at 92.65 currently).  The market will have to stay above this level to keep the bullishness in tact for the pair.  The USDJPY broke above the 200 day MA last week and his been support since that time.

ADP comes in much weaker Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:16 AM PDT Shows a fall of -23K vs +40K. This is much weaker and is leading to a fall in the USDJPY in early trade.

Rebroadcast of Tuesday’s Online Trading Class Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:15 AM PDT Rebroadcast of Tuesday’s Online Trading Class from March 30, 2010. Click here to watch Thursday, April 1st 2010 at 4pm Register Here

ADP expected to show a gain of 40K. Posted: 31 Mar 2010 05:13 AM PDT This is supposed to mimic the US NFP but without government workers.  This month the US is expected tohave hired a slew of cencus workers hence the disparity between the ADP and the NFP estimate which is expected to show a 185K gain.

Eurozone Unemployment highest since August 1998 Posted: 31 Mar 2010 02:06 AM PDT Eurozone Unemployment rose to 10.0%, as expected, up from 9.9%. This is the highest reading since August 1998. This is not damaging news to Eur/Usd, as we continue to make new highs. The pair was last at 1.3466.

Eurozone CPI Posted: 31 Mar 2010 02:03 AM PDT Eurozone CPI came in at 1.5%, stronger than the 1.1% expected and prior reading of 0.9%. Eu/Usd is making new highs at time of release, currently trading at 1.3462.

German Unemployment Change better than expected Posted: 31 Mar 2010 01:02 AM PDT German Unemployment Change fell by 31,000  , better than the 10,000 rise that was expected. Eur/Usd had made a run prior to release, making a new high of 1.3432. The pair has since pulled back to 1.3430.

French Producer Prices Posted: 30 Mar 2010 11:48 PM PDT French Producer Prices m/m came in at 0.1%, inline with forecast. Y/y came in at 1.0%, weaker than the 1.1% expected. Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.3425, unaffected by release.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US Consumer Confidence rises to 52.5
• EURUSD comes down to test 1.3437
• GBPUSD support at 1.5090 being tested
• The NY Morning Commentary is available for viewing
• US Case Shiller Home Price Index due at 9:00 AM
• Feds Evans on the newswires
• AUDUSD moves above the key resistance
• GBPUSD tests midpoint resistance at NY open
• The March 30th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Sterling testing high from 3/23
• UK GDP and Current Account
• Gbp/Usd trades above 200 hour M/A
• UK Nationwide House Price Index
• 3-30 Economic Calendar
• Japanese Prelim Industrial Production m/m

US Consumer Confidence rises to 52.5 Posted: 30 Mar 2010 07:01 AM PDT This is better than expectations

EURUSD comes down to test 1.3437 Posted: 30 Mar 2010 06:55 AM PDT The EURUSD fell to a low of 1.3441 just above the support at the 1.3437 level. The 1.3437 level was the low price from March 2nd 2010 and until last week that was the low for 2010.  The price used the level as support yesterday and it looks like it is continuing to use the level as support again today.

GBPUSD support at 1.5090 being tested Posted: 30 Mar 2010 06:33 AM PDT The GBPUSD support continues to be at the 1.5090 level. This is the 50% retracement of the last move down from the March 17th high to the low. The market has squeezed up to a high of 1.5112 and the price has trended higher for most of the trading day today.    As long as support can hold against the level, the bias remains to the upside. If the level gives way look for support initially at the 1.5070 and 1.5063 where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found.

The NY Morning Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 30 Mar 2010 06:20 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

US Case Shiller Home Price Index due at 9:00 AM Posted: 30 Mar 2010 05:51 AM PDT The expectation is for composite to decline by -0.7% vs -3.1% YoY.  This would be the lowest level YoY reading since February 2007.  The low YoY came in at -19.01% in January 2009.

Feds Evans on the newswires Posted: 30 Mar 2010 05:38 AM PDT Says jobless drop with momentum before accomodative stance ends.

AUDUSD moves above the key resistance Posted: 30 Mar 2010 05:34 AM PDT The 0.9194 level has been a ceiling level for the AUDUSD. The price has moved above this level and remained above for the last 7 hours.  This is key support today. Looking at the 5 minute chart the price has been using the 100 bar MA as support since the opening on Sunday night (with a couple small dips).  The current level comes in at the 0.9197.    SO far, support is holding. However, a break below these key levels at 0.9197 and 0.9194, should lead to some profit taking. Confirmation of further downside momentum would come on a break of the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (green line below) . That level comes in at the 0.9184 level. On the topside the resistance comes in at the 92.29 level where the trendline on the daily chart is found.

GBPUSD tests midpoint resistance at NY open Posted: 30 Mar 2010 05:02 AM PDT   The GBPUSD has been testing the 50% retracement level at the 1.5090 level. NY took it briefly above as they entered for the day.  The high reached 1.5100 and came off.  The current price remains near the key resistance level.   I expect sellers against the level with stops above the key level.  On the downside, the 1.5051 is the target support. This is the 38.2% of the days range and where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is moving towards.

The March 30th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 30 Mar 2010 04:41 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

Sterling testing high from 3/23 Posted: 30 Mar 2010 03:00 AM PDT Gbp/Usd, which was boosted by positive GDP data a bit earlier, is now testing resistance at 1.5086. Since breaking above 1.5052 the pair has failed twice to trade below. A break above 1.5086 should bring the pair to 1.5115-20. If Gbp/Usd fails to break above then a pullback to 1.5050-60 is likely.

UK GDP and Current Account Posted: 30 Mar 2010 01:35 AM PDT UK Final GDP q/q came in at 0.4%, stronger than the 0.3% expected. Y/y came in at -3.1%, stronger than the -3.3% expected. Current account came in at -1.7B, stronger than the -5.1B expected. More strong data out of the UK with Gbp trading near best levels vs Usd and Eur. Currently Gbp/Usd trades at 1.5060 and Eur/Gbp at .8940.

Gbp/Usd trades above 200 hour M/A Posted: 29 Mar 2010 11:22 PM PDT Gbp/Usd currently trades above its 200 hour M/A on the heels of postive Nationwide HPI data out of the U.K. If the pair can hold above it may meet some resistance at 1.5052, an area of some old hourly highs. A stronger resistance should be at the 1.5085-90 level. Keep in mid that final quarterly GDP figures come out at 4:30 EST.

UK Nationwide House Price Index Posted: 29 Mar 2010 11:07 PM PDT Nationwide HPI m/m came in at 0.7%, stronger than the 0.2% expected and prior reading of -1.0%. Y/y came in at 9.0%, stronger than the 8.2% expected and slightly off the prior reading of 9.2%. Good numbers for GBP as Gbp/Usd trades at 1.5038, just off the session high of 1.5047.

3-30 Economic Calendar Posted: 29 Mar 2010 08:45 PM PDT

Japanese Prelim Industrial Production m/m Posted: 29 Mar 2010 05:18 PM PDT Prelim industrial production was worse than expected for February coming in at -0.9% versus its forecast of -0.4% and prior reading of 2.7%.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDJPY non-trending. At equilibrium level intraday
• GBPUSD rebounds as stocks open
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing.
• EURUSD breaks below intraday MA support.
• Personal Income and Spending come in as expected
• AUDUSD pushing above the 200 hour MA at 0.9148
• The March 29th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Eurozone Consumer Confidence
• UK Net Lending to Individuals
• Sterling trading above 100 hour M/A
• 3-29 Economic Calendar
• USD/CHF Breaks 38.2% Retracement
• Japanese Retail Sales y/y
• Euro higher on open, but trading lower
• RBA’s Stevens on the wires…

USDJPY non-trending. At equilibrium level intraday Posted: 29 Mar 2010 06:58 AM PDT The USDJPY has been in a narrow trading range and is converged with the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. This is the condition we call “Three’s A Crowd” and it is indicative of a non-trending market. Typically, the price will trend away from the level either to the upside or the downside.  The level comes in at the 92.54 level.  The last move down bottomed at the 92.41 level.  The 92.38 to 41 level has been a floor over the last couple of trading days.  This gives a positive bias if the price can move above the key moving averages. A confirmation of the upside would move through 92.61 and then the highs for the day.

GBPUSD rebounds as stocks open Posted: 29 Mar 2010 06:35 AM PDT The GBPUSD has moved higher as the US stock market is opening.  The price, which dipped below the 100 hour MA at the 1.4970 earlier in the NY session, has now rebounded back above the intraday MA level (blue line in the chart above - currrently at 1.4974). The 1.5001 level is the next upside target. On the hourly chart the price is firmly in between the 100 and 200 bar MA at the 1.4926 and the 1.5046 level. These levels will be the extremes the market will likely buy against or sell against.  With the price in between the two, the 5 minute chart will provide the shorter term directional clues. The daily chart has bottom side resistance at the 1.5030 level.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing. Posted: 29 Mar 2010 06:22 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

EURUSD breaks below intraday MA support. Posted: 29 Mar 2010 05:53 AM PDT The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart has been breached at the 1.3467 level, but so far the 200 bar MA is trying to hold support but the downside seems vulnerable.  The price has been able to stay above the 200 bar MA since movong above at 1.3319 on Friday.The current level comes in at 1.3454.  A move below would next target the 1.3437 level which is the old low from March 2nd.  Below that the 1.3415 level will be eyed by buyers. The market will expect the 100 bar MA to hold at the 1.3467 level.  A move above would likely give the intraday bulls reason to buy.

Personal Income and Spending come in as expected Posted: 29 Mar 2010 05:46 AM PDT Personal Income 0.0% Personal Spending +0.3% (5th straight increase) The Savings Rate fell to 3.1% The lowest level since October 2008.

AUDUSD pushing above the 200 hour MA at 0.9148 Posted: 29 Mar 2010 05:29 AM PDT The AUDUSD has been supported by comments from RBA Stevens and in early NY trade, the price has moved above the 200 hour MA at the 0.9148 level. The move today has also pushed the price back above the 100 day MA at the 0.9068 level much earlier in the day (see horizontal line in the hourly chart above).  The longer term target will NOW look toward the trendline on the daily chart at the 0.9231 level (CAHRT BELOW).  Before that level, however, look for profit taking selling against the 0.9194 level which has been a key “Remembered” price over the last few weeks (see chart above). On the downside, we will want to see momentum above the 0.9148 to confirm the break higher. If the price can not gain momentum and moves back below, the intraday support will come against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 0.9120 area.  The last low corrective moves also stalled at this area.

The March 29th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 29 Mar 2010 04:45 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

Eurozone Consumer Confidence Posted: 29 Mar 2010 02:10 AM PDT Eurozone Consumer Confidence came in as expected at -17, also mirroring its prior reading. Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.3485.

UK Net Lending to Individuals Posted: 29 Mar 2010 02:08 AM PDT UK Net Lending to Individuals came in at 2.1B, stronger than the 1.8B expected and 1.9B prior reading. This figured pushed sterling back up to session highs at 1.5018. It has since come off, now trading at 1.4980.

Sterling trading above 100 hour M/A Posted: 28 Mar 2010 11:57 PM PDT Gbp/Usd is trading above its 100 hour M/A of 1.4931. Sterling has tried to break above the 100 hour M/A twice earlier in the session to no avail. If the pair can hold above this level it should make a move to 1.5000 If it gives back some gains and falls below 1.4931, a move down to 1.4870-80 is likely.

3-29 Economic Calendar Posted: 28 Mar 2010 10:04 PM PDT

USD/CHF Breaks 38.2% Retracement Posted: 28 Mar 2010 06:58 PM PDT USD/CHF opened the session at 1.0587, almost 80 pips lower than its close on friday but closed that gap as the session high thus far has been 1.0680. The hourly chart shows the pair breaking through the 100 bar MAVG and the 38.2% line which comes in at 1.0679. This level was also tested on friday as resistance and twice last week as suppport.

Japanese Retail Sales y/y Posted: 28 Mar 2010 05:02 PM PDT The JPY showed little reaction to worse than expected yearly reatail sales numbers for February. The details are as follows: Large Retailer’s Sales - Survey: -5.5%   Actual: -5.6%   Prior: -5.6% Retail Trade (y/y) - Survey: 1.6%   Actual: 4.2   Prior: 2.6% Retail Trade (m/m) - Survey: 0.9%   Actual: 2.9%   Prior: 2.9%

Euro higher on open, but trading lower Posted: 28 Mar 2010 04:06 PM PDT The USD opened the session much weaker against all of the major currencies with the EUR/USD pair opening the session at 1.3473 after closing on Friday at 1.3414.  On the hourly chart, the open came in around the 38.2% retracement level from the downward move that started on March 17. A closer look on the 5 minute chart shows that it made an upward pass through the 1.3477 level, held for 30 minutes, and than retreated back below and is currently trading lower at 1.3447.

RBA’s Stevens on the wires… Posted: 28 Mar 2010 02:38 PM PDT Speaking in an interview today, RBA Governor Stevens made the following comments: It is not wise to keep rates too low. Imprudent to raise rates too rapidly. It may be unwise to “leverage up” on property. The AUD/USD, after a much higher opening this afternoon, is currently trading at .9050.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• The Weekend Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• GBPUSD stalls at 100 and 200 bar MA on 5 minute chart
• The FXDD Midday Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• USDCAD tests 38.2% retracement at 1.0296
• USDJPY caught in the dollar selling
• Juncker says Greek won’t need aid

The Weekend Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 26 Mar 2010 12:44 PM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

GBPUSD stalls at 100 and 200 bar MA on 5 minute chart Posted: 26 Mar 2010 09:52 AM PDT The GBPUSD has stalled at the 100 and 200 bar MA support on the 5 minute chart.   The 1.4859 is also support which is the 50% of the move up from the low to the high.  A break below the 1.4859 will be needed to extend the downside move (1.4836 target).  Above, the 1.4892 level (see red line above) is the upside resistance now.

The FXDD Midday Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 26 Mar 2010 09:41 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

USDCAD tests 38.2% retracement at 1.0296 Posted: 26 Mar 2010 08:41 AM PDT The 38.2% retracement of the move down from the February 25th high to the March 19th low comes in at 1.0296.  The price is up testing the retracement level and so far is finding the expected profit taking sellers.   A move back above will  look to target the 1.0320 level which is the high from March 11th Support comes in at 1.0264 now. The 38.2% of the days range comes in at the level and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is moving up toward that level.

USDJPY caught in the dollar selling Posted: 26 Mar 2010 07:59 AM PDT The USDJPY continues its choppy trade as the price back below the 100 and 200 bar MA levels.  The failure to extend to the highs from yesterday and the move back below 92.72 (close from yesterday helped from a technical perspective. Needless to say the pair is up and down today, testing the downside, the the topside and now tilting back to the bottom.  The 90.34 level will be eyed as the equivalent of the 92.72 level above.  The level is equal to the 50% retracement of the rally up yesterday.  The market is condusive to the choppy trading today and with London looking to exit for the week at noon (by the way, London/Europe changes time this weekend so they will be exiting at 11:00 AM NYT on Monday), the conditios may continue.  Look out, however, for some increased volatility into the close.

Juncker says Greek won’t need aid Posted: 26 Mar 2010 07:23 AM PDT The Greek bonds are still +300 BP above comparable German debt.  The refunding of debt in April/May is reliant on a lower rate.   Paying too much will make the deficit worse.  Austerity programs also need to be enacted.  Regardless, the comments are boosting the EURUSD. It is too early to say if  it will be a success, but that is why we watch the technicals and look for low risk trading opportunities instead.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD eyes 100 hour MA and 50% retracement of week range
• USDCHF moves below floor and tests 100 hour MA
• EURUSD squeezes back higher on Portugal reaffirmation
• S&P affirms Portugal at A+/A-1
• AUDUSD tests 50% retracement support at 0.9025
• The March 26th NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• White House announces Homeowner assistance program
• USDJPY moves back toward closing level
• GDP comes out weaker at 5.6% vs 5.9%. EURUSD dips to 100 bar MA (5 min)
• AUDUSD watching 100 day MA today
• GDP expected to show 5.9% gain
• EURUSD extends higher in NY but approaches resistance
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• UK Revised Business Investment
• Eurozone nations reach bailout agreement for Greece

EURUSD eyes 100 hour MA and 50% retracement of week range Posted: 26 Mar 2010 07:17 AM PDT 100 hour MA comes in at 1.3415 and the 50% retracement at 1.3418.  The first move up on the back of Portugal news and also comments from Greek PM sent the price up to the 1.3411, but sellers entered against the upside resistance levels.  Level remains a key resistance level with a break targeting 1.3454. On the downside support at 1.3382 and   1.3365.

USDCHF moves below floor and tests 100 hour MA Posted: 26 Mar 2010 07:08 AM PDT The floor at 1.0670 area was broken and the pair has moved down to test the next target at the 100 hour MA. The level comes in at 1.0653. A break below will look to 1.0628. The topside resistance now comes in against 1.0671 to 1.0677 area.

EURUSD squeezes back higher on Portugal reaffirmation Posted: 26 Mar 2010 06:57 AM PDT The price has moved back above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.3366 level.   Meanwhile Michigan came in at 73.6 vs 73.0 expectation.

S&P affirms Portugal at A+/A-1 Posted: 26 Mar 2010 06:52 AM PDT …”on  consolidation plan. The outlook remains negative.” This is giving the EURUSD a bit of a bid.

AUDUSD tests 50% retracement support at 0.9025 Posted: 26 Mar 2010 06:49 AM PDT   The AUDUSD fell below the 100 day MA at the 0.9067 level. The price has moved down and tests the 50% retracement of the last move down at the 0.9025. This is a target on the bearish highway.  A move below should next look towart the -8972 level which is the 61.8% of the move up from the February 25th low.

The March 26th NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 26 Mar 2010 06:32 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

White House announces Homeowner assistance program Posted: 26 Mar 2010 06:03 AM PDT Similar to BofA initiative aid would be provided to homeowners underwater with 115% of Loan to value ratio being the maximum.  Goal is to help 4 MM homeowners and prevent further foreclosures due to homeowners walking away.  The funds would come from TARP funds

USDJPY moves back toward closing level Posted: 26 Mar 2010 05:44 AM PDT The USDJPY closed at 92.72 yesterday and moved up to 92.81 just prior to the GDP report. The weaker data pushed the price back down below the closing level and we will looking to see sellers against the level.  A move back above may be disappointing for those looking for a correction in the pair.   ON the downside, the market is consolidating the gains from the weeks move higher. As such the 100 and 200 bar MA are converged at the 92.55 level and the price has moved above and below the level on a number of occasions today.  We will be looking for downside confirmation via a break of these moving averages.  If the price can not get through, a move through the close is most likely as the bullish week comes to an end. On the topside a move above the close, should solicit a move toward the high from yesterday at 92.94.  Another key upside target comes in at the 93.12 level where the 50%  retracement of the 2009 high to low range is located.

GDP comes out weaker at 5.6% vs 5.9%. EURUSD dips to 100 bar MA (5 min) Posted: 26 Mar 2010 05:34 AM PDT The GDP was weaker at 5.6% for the 4Q. Consumption comes in at 1.6%. The Core PCE comes in at 1.8% vs 1.6%. The USDJPY has come off a bit on the weaker data, and the EURUSD came down to test 100 bar MA support at 1.3362 on the 5 minute chart but has bounced a touch.  Still watching the level.

AUDUSD watching 100 day MA today Posted: 26 Mar 2010 05:31 AM PDT The AUDUSD is testing the 100 day MA at the 0.9068 level.  A close below this level will be bearish for the pair and should see further downside selling for the pair going forward.

GDP expected to show 5.9% gain Posted: 26 Mar 2010 05:26 AM PDT The US GDP for 4Q is expected to show a gain of 5.9%. The same as the prior revision.  Personal Consumption is expected to come at 1.7%.  The Core PCE is expected to come at 1.6&.  Later today we have the U of Michigan at 73.0 vs 72.5. This is the final revision for the March confidence. Although GDP is obiously important, it is April and the market is more interested in Q1 and Q2 growth.

EURUSD extends higher in NY but approaches resistance Posted: 26 Mar 2010 05:14 AM PDT The EURUSD has corrected higher in early NY trade, but upside resistance at the 1.3418 is approaching.  The level corresponds with the 100 hour moving average and the 50% retracement of the move down from the weeks high price to the low (1.3567 to 1.3267).   The high reached on the last leg came in at the 1.3407.  On the downside, we will be looking for support against the 1.3372 which is the backside support from the top channel trendline. Looking at the shorter term 5 minute chart the price has been trending higher using the 100 bar MA as support. That moving average comes in at the 1.3360.  This level also corresponds with a intraday floor level.   Below the 1.3349 level is the 38.2% of the move up from the lows yesterday.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 26 Mar 2010 04:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

UK Revised Business Investment Posted: 26 Mar 2010 02:33 AM PDT UK Revised Business Investment q/q came in at -4.3%, stronger than the -5.6% expected and prior reading of -5.8%. Not much market reaction to figure as Gbp/Usd trades at 1.4845.

Eurozone nations reach bailout agreement for Greece Posted: 26 Mar 2010 02:04 AM PDT Eurozone nations reach bailout agreement for Greece. European Commission President Baroso says EU accord on Greece is a great result.

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