Friday, April 1, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

ECBs Bini Smaghi says rating agencies may be behind the curve

Posted: 01 Apr 2011 07:17 AM PDT

  • Stress test shows Ireland resolve
  • Markets need to be convinced on Portugal

The EURUSD moves lower on the quote after testing the post employment report highs.  Nevertheless the move above the 38.2% of the intraday move muddies the water a bit.  Bias is down but watching the 1.4100 level. A move back above the level should suggest a more balanced market now. WIth 1.4121 the next key upside target to stay below (the level is the 100 hour MA level now)

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Greg Michalowski just added to London Traders Expo

Posted: 01 Apr 2011 07:17 AM PDT

traders_expo

Greg Michalowski has been added as a presenter at the London Traders Expo. The event runs April 8th and 9th. Here is Greg’s speaking schedule.

Technical strategies 04/08/11 11:45 am - 12:30 pm
Forex trading tools 04/09/11 11:30 am - 12:15 pm
Global opportunities in the 2011 currency markets 04/09/11 2:30 pm - 3:15 pm

Feds Lacker on CNBC. Key comments.

Posted: 01 Apr 2011 07:10 AM PDT

  • Good report
  • Fed to keep eye on inflation
  • Wouldnt surprise if the Fed has to act before the end of the year
  • Stop QE2, not reinvest MBS Proceeds and look to sell assets and raise interest rates
  • Reconsider withdrawing QE 2 early
  • Don’t think the Fed is behind the curve.
  • Next 9 months critical
  • Japan impact should be transitory
  • Does not think housing should lead to a double dip risk
  • Housing flat over the next year.
  • Housing will no contribute to growth because of overhang
  • “Get out as quickly as we got in” with regard to asset sales and the Fed’s exit from stimulus. 

EURUSD corrects after ISM data

Posted: 01 Apr 2011 07:07 AM PDT

fxdd-pic-2440

The ISM data was ok, but some of the components perhaps were not as the market hoped. New Orders and Backlog orders fall.

==================================
Manufacturing index     61.2 vs 61.4
Prices paid             85.0  vs 82.0
Production              69.0 vs 66.3
New orders              63.3 vs 68.0
Backlog of orders       52.5 vs 59.0
Supplier deliveries     63.1 vs 59.4
Inventories             47.4 vs  48.8
Customer inventories    39.5 vs 40.0
Employment              63.0 vs 64.5
New export orders       56.0 vs 62.5
Imports                 56.5 vs 55.0

Construction Spending Drops, ISM Data Stays Put

Posted: 01 Apr 2011 07:02 AM PDT

Construction Spending MoM:  Survey: -0.2%    Actual:  -1.4%    Prior:  -0.7%  Revised:  -%

ISM Manufacturing:   Survey: 61.1  Actual:  61.2   Prior:  61.4

Mar vs. Feb
Prices Paid: 85.0 vs 82.0
Production:  69.0 vs 66.3
New Orders: 63.3 vs68.0 
Backlog of Orders:  52.5 vs 59.0
Supplier Deliveries:  63.1 vs 59.4
Inventory Change:  47.4 vs 48.8
Employment: 63.0 vs 64.5

ISM Prices Paid:   Survey: 82.9  Actual: 85.0   Prior:  82.0

Prices paid highest since july 2008

GBPUSD tests congestion target at 1.5956 to 1.5972

Posted: 01 Apr 2011 06:54 AM PDT

fxdd-pic-2438

The GBPUSD is down testing the next congestion target at the 1.5956-72 area. The level is trendline support on the daily chart and has been a support area in Feb and March as well. On the hourly chart below the level has been a remember line over the last week or so of trading (see chart below).  A break below, opens the door for further selling pressure.

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Special FXDDAuto Webinar Thursday April 7th 12pm

Posted: 01 Apr 2011 06:45 AM PDT

register-fxdd-live-training-tradency-feb-20111

We'd like to invite you to join Oz Golan, Director of Institutional Sales at Tradency and FXDD's Shawn Powell for a free, interactive webinar highlighting the features and functionalities of FXDD Auto. This is your opportunity to learn how to employ the FXDD Auto tools and strategies from a Tradency expert, as well as ask questions. >> Register now to reserve your seat

The live event will take place online Thursday, April 7th at 12:00pm EDT. With FXDDAuto, you can evaluate over 1,500 trading strategies developed by Forex traders and create personalized portfolio of those you wish to follow. Once you have created your portfolio, FXDD Auto will automatically execute the trades for your selected strategies.>> Register now to reserve your seat

Weekly Wrap Up with Greg and Shawn TODAY at 12:30pm. Reserve your seat now

Posted: 01 Apr 2011 06:39 AM PDT

weekly-register-fxdd-live-training

Weekly Wrap Up with Greg and Shawn TODAY at 12:30pm. There will be a lot to talk about with the current market conditions in the Euro and other majors. - Reserve your seat now.

EURUSD finding sellers against the 1.4116-20 area

Posted: 01 Apr 2011 06:37 AM PDT

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As per the PRIOR POST, the market has stalled and corrected to the target area at 1.4116-20 area. The 1.4116 level is the 38.2% of the last intraday fall to the downside. The 1.4120 level is the 100 hour MA.  Staying below keeps the bears in charge and the dip buyer worried. Moving above, muddies the water for the day and the trend a bit.

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US ISM Data & Construction Spending Due at 10AM

Posted: 01 Apr 2011 06:19 AM PDT

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322

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USDCHF soars on flight out of safety

Posted: 01 Apr 2011 06:14 AM PDT

The better than expected US job report has continued to lead to a move out of the safe haven Swiss Franc (higher USDCHF).  The currency has been the haven for funds with the global economic uncertainty as well as the tension and devastation coming from the Middle East and Japan. With arguably a more favorable environment (or at least all the bad is out) and the better jobs report today, the door remains open for the unwinding of the safe haven play and a higher USDCHF.

fxdd-pic-2433

On the daily chart the price is now above the 38.2% retracement level at the 0.9243 level. Staying above this level targets the 50% at the 0.9345 level. There is also channel resistance at the level. This makes the level an attractive target for the bulls.

Looking at the hourly chart the price is back in the channel from the March 23rd to March 30th period. The trendline comes in at the 0.9282 level.  There is trendline resistance above at the 0.9306 level and this is the next closest target to watch for upside confirmation.  There should be some intraday profit taking sellers against the level.  If the price is broken, look for the 0.9345 level to come into focus and it could be sooner rather than later.

fxdd-pic-2434

Support on the downside now comes in at the 0.9273-82. The 0.9273 level was the high from March 30th. The 0.9283 is the channel trendline. 

Looking at the 5 minute chart, watch larger corrections that approach the 38.2% of the last move higher.  That level comes in at 0.9268 currently.

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Keith Hall, (Labor Department Commissioner) comments on the Employment report

Posted: 01 Apr 2011 06:08 AM PDT

Keith Hall, Labor Department commissioner, comments on the stronger than expected US jobs report.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jec.pdf

Press release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

USDJPY moves to target resistance at 84.40-52 area and comes off

Posted: 01 Apr 2011 05:56 AM PDT

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The USDJPY has continued the move higher. It is now comfortably above the 200 day MA (green line the the chart above).  The pair has found some sellers against the 82.40-52 area. This was a ceiling area back in November/December 2010.

On a correction off the high (ie a move down intraday), watch the 84.10 for support. This is the 38.2% of the last leg up on the intraday chart (see chart below)

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EURUSD below 100 hour MA at 1.4120. Test support at underside of trendline

Posted: 01 Apr 2011 05:40 AM PDT

fxdd-pic-2429

The better US jobs data has the EURUSD heading lower as the market debates the Feds next move. THe price has moved through the 100 hour MA at the 1.4120 level and has tested the underside of the channel trendline (the next target for the pair - see chart above).  

Resistance now at 1.4120. a break of the 1.4092 should solicit more selling pressure.  1.4084 is another downside target (horizontal line in chart above), then 1.4072 which is the upward sloping trendline.

On corrections watch the 38.2% retracement. That level currently comes at 1.4116 with the low at 1.4088. This along with the 100 hour MA at 1.4120 currently is the topside resistance I would expect the sellers to defend.

fxdd-pic-2430

US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise, Unemployment Falls Lower to 8.8%

Posted: 01 Apr 2011 05:32 AM PDT

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls:         Survey:  190K     Actual:  216K    Prior:  192K      Revision: K

Change in Private Payrolls:         Survey: 206K    Actual: 230K     Prior:  222K     Revised: K

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls:      Survey: 30K     Actual:  17K       Prior:  33K     Revised: 53K

Unemployment Rate:     Survey:  8.9%     Actual: 8.8%     Prior:  8.9%      

Avg Hourly Earning (MoM) All Emp:    Survey:  0.2%     Actual: 0.0%      Prior:  0.0%         

Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) All Emp:    Survey:  1.9%      Actual: 1.7%      Prior:  1.7%      

Avg Weekly Hours All Employees:    Survey:  34.3      Actual:  34.3        Prior:  34.2  

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