Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

USDCHF tests 38.2% Fibo retracement level

Posted: 27 Apr 2011 06:26 AM PDT

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The USDCHF fell sharply in the early Asian session but has since enjoyed a trend-like move to the upside.  The step by step progression higher (see 5 minute chart above) initially found resistance against the 100 bar MA (blue line). After it broke above that, it paused at the 200 bar MA (green bar).  It broke through that and then tested the MA level on the correction. The ability to find buyers against the level and push higher has led to increased momentum with a high so far of 0.8795.

On a trend type move, it is not uncommon for the 38.2% retracement to play a more important role. That retracement can be on shorter legs as well. Remember..trends are fast. Trends are directional.  So waiting for a correction of the entire move can never occur.  As a result, I will target the shorter 38.2% of the most recent legs higher. If the level holds, this often gives the longs added confidence for the trend to continue. That level comes in currently at the 0.87729 level (see chart above). Stay above that and the bulls remain in charge.

Where are we going?  On the topside, the move has reached a key level on the hourly chart that needs to broken to encourage more buying (see chart  below). That level is the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the April 20th highat the 0.8799 level. A break above this level and then a  move above the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above)  at the 0.8813 level will give bulls the needed boost for a move higher.  However, don’t be surprised to see some profit taking against the key levels as well with stops above.  

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Overall, the days trend remains in tact (above 0.87729) but don’t be surprised to see willing sellers on a next move higher as the market awaits Bernanke with 0.8799 and 0.8813 as key levels to breach.

EURUSD inches lower in cautious trade ahead of FOMC/Bernanke

Posted: 27 Apr 2011 05:48 AM PDT

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The EURUSD is inching lower in cautious trade. The better than expected Durable Goods data led to a small move to the downside but the pair continues to find buyers on dips. The highs from yesterday betwen 1.4646-56 represent the support target that cannot be broken.  Above the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (see above) are converging at the 1.4673 level. This is congruent with a balanced market. 

Of course we have the hyped FOMC decision at 12:30 PM ET followed by Chairman Bernanke’s first ever press conference at 2;15 PM ET. So perhaps the neutral stance near the highs is warranted.  The chairmans comments of late suggest he is in the camp of keeping rates low for a while which would favor the lower dollar.  However, with QE2 ending in June, he could surprise with detailed comments on it.

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Looking at the daily chart a move above the 1.4673 level should look to target the topside channel resistance once again. The channel trendline has been tested no fewer than 8 times including earlier today at the 1.3711 level (high was 1.3712).  Once again seller came in against the level and the price rotated down. Keep this level /trendline in mind post the FOMC decision and comments. It should give clues to traders. A break should be bullish and lead to further upside momentum. If the level holds (or fails on the break) I would expect the sellers to start lining up to push the price back lower.   It is a key level on the upside today.

Durable Goods come out at 2.5%

Posted: 27 Apr 2011 05:30 AM PDT

Ex Trans +1.3%.

Revisions also higher. Was -0.6%, revised up to +0.7%.

This is better data and should be good for 1st quarter GDP.

The USDJPY is toying with the 200 hour MA at the 82.28 level.  A move above and confirmation through the 82.35-40 level should open the door for further momentum higher. 

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US Durable Goods due at 8:30 AM ET

Posted: 27 Apr 2011 05:17 AM PDT

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Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.27.2011

Posted: 27 Apr 2011 05:14 AM PDT

bob-slade-forex-trading-6-150x200Good Morning:

Risk was back on center stage overnight-as Australian CPI data posted better than expected-pushing the Aussie through the 1.08 handle.
In the UK-GDP printed at .5%, which showed that the UK economy is fairly robust, even with their austerity measures and weak consumer sentiment.  The GBP rallied as many investors were anticipating weaker data.

Markets will be waiting for 2:15 PM this afternoon-which will signal the end of the FOMC meeting-and will feature Fed Chairman Bernanke’s press conference.  Markets are not expecting any interest rate increase at this time-but they are looking for any signal of when the Fed’s QE policy will be coming to an  end.

S&P cut Japan’s sovereign rating outlook to negative.  Costs for rebuilding the country after the March 11 earthquake will no doubt hurt the countries ability to produce products for export, which is the backbone of Japan’s economy.

Asian equity markets were mixed-Europe and US Futures are higher at this time.

Oil:$112.40                                                                 Gold:$1508.90

  TODAY’S RELEASES
TIME FOR EST. PRIOR   REVISED
7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS 22-Apr 5.30%
8:30A.M. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS MAR. 2.00% -0.90% -0.60%
8;30A.M. DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION      MAR. 2.20% -0.60% -0.30%
12:30P.M. FOMC RATE DECISION
2:15P.M. FOMC PRESS CONFERENCE         

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The FXDD Opening Forex Call for April 27th

Posted: 27 Apr 2011 04:03 AM PDT

Euro-area Feb. ind. new orders rise 0.9%; worse than expected.

Posted: 27 Apr 2011 02:03 AM PDT


Euro-area industrial new orders @ 5

Posted: 27 Apr 2011 01:51 AM PDT

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Orphanides says Greek restructuring is a “bad idea”.

Posted: 27 Apr 2011 01:49 AM PDT


U.K first quarter GDP rises 0.5%.

Posted: 27 Apr 2011 01:33 AM PDT

Morgage approvals were 31.7K; better than expected and index of services was as expected at -0.3%. Sterling made gains against all of the major currencies.

See below, the pound advanced nearly 100 pips against the USD immediatley following the release after trading continually lower the fast few hours.

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The U.K. treasury says it is goodnews that the economy has returned to growth and added that manufacturing is growing strongly.

Coming up in 5 minutes…

Posted: 27 Apr 2011 01:26 AM PDT

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USD Making Gains After Receding Earlier

Posted: 26 Apr 2011 11:33 PM PDT

We are currently seeing some strength in the USD against all of the major pairs after losing strength earlier as investors reduced their USD exposure as the market awaits the U.S. federal funds rate decision/FOMC statement in roughly ten hours from now. The central bank will conclude its meeting today with a press conference with Ben Bernanke; the market will be hunting for clues in regards to whether the Fed will continue its accommodative monetary policy. Forecasts anticipate that rates will be left unchanged at 0.25%.

With regards to the USD versus the JPY, we see the pair currently testing the 81.83 level where we find the 100 hour moving average converging with the 50.0% fibo line on the move from April 25th highs to today’s lows. Continued upward momentum could see the pair head towards the 82.00 figure, but resistance found here could bring us back towards 81.697; the 38.2% retracement level.

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German GfK consumer climate 5.7; worse than expected.

Posted: 26 Apr 2011 11:07 PM PDT

Euro sold on the release.

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Posted: 26 Apr 2011 09:04 PM PDT

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Australian CPI Comes Out Better Than Expectations

Posted: 26 Apr 2011 06:40 PM PDT

Consumer Prices (QoQ): Survey: 1.2%   Actual: 1.6%  Prior: 0.4%

1Q 2011 vs. 4Q 2010
Goods Component: 1.6% vs 0.5%
Services Component: 1.4% vs 0.3%
Tradables Component: 1.8% vs 0.3%
Non-Tradables Component: 1.4% vs 0.4%

Consumer Prices (YoY): Survey: 3.0%   Actual: 3.3%   Prior:  2.7%

 

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