Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Gold continues surge to new record highs
Pending Home Sales stronger at +5.1%
FXstreet Webinar with Greg Michalowski 11am TODAY
EURUSD tests 100 and 200 bar MA
The NY Morning Forex Call for April 27th
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.28.2011
GDP 1.8%. Initial Claims bad at 429K
ECB Juncker Greece restructuring not an option
GBPUSD. Watching 1.6625 below
EURUSD tests 38.2% Fibo level pre US GDP
Pending Home Sales expected to show a 1.5% gain
Initial Claims and Continuing Claims expected to move back below 400k
US GDP due out at 8:30 AM ET
German unemployment fell 37,000 in April.
German Unemployment Change @ 3:55

Gold continues surge to new record highs

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 07:06 AM PDT

The flight into gold has continued today as it trades at a fresh record. Yesterday the price moved above channel trendline and today the price tested the trendline, found buyers and moved to the new highs.

Targeting levels becomes more difficult. Staying above the channel trendline is the stop for new longs in the market and represents the risk in the volatile market. On the topside, the next key target is centered around the 1570 area where the trendline and the 138.2% Fibonacci extension is found. This extension is from the move in the chart above from A to B (Jan low to the Feb high)

The move higher in Gold is pushing the dollar back lower. The EURUSD has moved through the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and moved toward the 1.4850 trendline level.

Pending Home Sales stronger at +5.1%

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 07:02 AM PDT

The prior month was revised lower however to 0.7% from +2.1%. Nevertheless with the stronger gain (vs 1.5% expectation), the data is good news for the housing market.

FXstreet Webinar with Greg Michalowski 11am TODAY

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 06:49 AM PDT

Join Greg for a live training today at 11am Reserve your seat now

EURUSD tests 100 and 200 bar MA

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 06:43 AM PDT

The EURUSD has moved back higher after consolidating above and below the 38.2% retracement level. The pair is testing the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart which have converged (Threes a Crowd). What we look for is the market to move away from this level. The market is testing the resolve of the bulls. The EURUSD has had a sharp run up. I would not be surprised to see a correction. However, I will listen to the market as well and if the MA levels are broken, the bulls might wrestle control back again.

The NY Morning Forex Call for April 27th

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 06:37 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.28.2011

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 05:40 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Fed Chairman Bernanke’s press conference added to the woes of the greenback in overnight trading. The Euro, GBP, and Aussie all set 2011 highs, as the Fed Chairman reaffirmed the Fed’s accommodating monetary policy. Chairman Bernanke gave no indication as to when he is considering a change in policy, except that he will change it’s course until the employment picture and economic growth show significant traction.
Japan’s economic data was disappointing, but not completely unexpected, after the March 11 earthquake. Household spending, industrial production contracted at a record pace, with auto production cut in half.

Gold climbed to a record high overnight, as investors seek alternative investments-with precious metals on the top of the list.
Oil traded off it’s 31 month high-as speculation that slow US growth will hamper demand for crude.

Jobless claims rose 25K, and Advance GDP came in at 1.8% versus 2.0% that was widely expected.

Asian and European equity markets traded mixed-and US Futures are lower at this time.

Oil:$112.67 Gold:$1529.50

		TODAY’S RELEASES
TIME			FOR	EST.	PRIOR
8:30A.M.	CHICAGO FED NAT ACTIVITY INDEX		MAR.		-O.O4
8:30A.M.	GDP QoQ		1Q A	2.00%	3.10%
8:30A.M.	PERSONAL CONSUMPTION		1Q A	2.00%	4.00%
8:30A.M.	GDP PRICE INDEX		1Q A	2.30%	0.40%
8:30A.M.	CORE PCE QoQ		1Q A	1.40%	0.40%
8:30A.M.	INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS		23-Apr	395K	403K
8:30A.M.	CONTINUING CLAIMS		16-Apr	3680K	3695K
10:00A.M.	PENDING HOME SLAES MoM		MAR.	1.50%	2.10%
10:00A.M.	PENDING HOME SALES YoY		MAR.		-9.30%

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

GDP 1.8%. Initial Claims bad at 429K

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 05:32 AM PDT

GDP 1.8% . Consumption a better at 2.7%. The Core PCE rose 1.5% vs 1.4%

Contributions to GDP
Personal Consumption: 1.91%
Investment: +1.01%
Net Trade: -0.8%
Governement: -1.09T

Within those contributions, inventories at just 0.93% after substracting -3.42% in the 4Q. Exports rose 0.64% while imports contributed a -0.72%

Initial Claims rose to 429 vs expectations of 390-395k. This is going the wrong way with the last 3 weeks being back above the 400K level.

The dollar is dipping on the data with the worry being the jobs it seems and the realization that GDP at 1.8% is not all that great.

ECB Juncker Greece restructuring not an option

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 05:30 AM PDT

GBPUSD. Watching 1.6625 below

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 05:25 AM PDT

The 1.66256 level in the GBPUSD is the 38.2% of the move up from the low yesterday to the high today. The pair moved higher in the Far east session but came off during the London morning. Looking at the chart, the price dipped below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart, found some intraday buyers against the 200 bar MA, but has dipped below in early NY trade. A continuation move below the 38.2% would continue the corrective momentum in that direction. Traders who sold or took profit above, have risk on a move back above the turning 100 and 200 bar MAS now. The 200 bar MA comes in at 1.6672 and the 100 bar MA (blue in chart above) comes in at 1.6683.

EURUSD tests 38.2% Fibo level pre US GDP

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 05:06 AM PDT

Event risk is increased pre GDP. However, the pair is currently testing the 38.2% of the move up from the pre-Bernanke low. That level comes in at 1.4786. The GDP is expected to come in at 1.8% to 2.0% but the 1st cut of GDP can be quite volatile as the Commerce Department uses estimates for some of the data which has not yet been reported. So the number is subject to revisions. Interestingly enough there are rumors in the market the data will be weaker than expected. That should keep the US dollar pressured. Yet the dollar is more bid pre number.

Another downside target should momentum to the downside continue would be the 1.4732 level where the 38.2% of the move up from the weeks low is found. Below that level 1.4718.

On the topside the 200 and 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart would provide bullish clues for the market (see chart above). The 200 bar MA (green line), is 1.4824 and the 100 bar MA (Blue line) comes in at the 1.4839 level. A move above each would be positive. However, do note the 100 bar MA has started to dip to the downside. This could be indicative of a more cautious/profit taking market. So watch for sellers against the levels with stops above.

Pending Home Sales expected to show a 1.5% gain

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 05:03 AM PDT

The March Pending Home sales will be released at 10:00 AM and are expected to show a gain of 1.5%. The

Initial Claims and Continuing Claims expected to move back below 400k

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 04:59 AM PDT

The last few weeks has seen the Intial Claims move back above the 400k figure. This puts into question the job recovery as economists like to see the number below the 400K as a benchmark for job growth. This week the expectation is for a move back below the 400 K value.

The Continuing Claims are expected to fall to 3680k from 3695K last week.

US GDP due out at 8:30 AM ET

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 04:55 AM PDT

Although the expectation for the GDP for this survey says 1.7%, the estimate has been ratcheted up as a result of some better Durable Goods and an overall more positive assessment. The market would not be surprised with a 2% number today.

Consumption is expected to reise by 2% vs 4% last quarter. GDP Price index is expected 2.3% with Core PCE at 1.4%.

German unemployment fell 37,000 in April.

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 12:56 AM PDT

German Unemployment Change @ 3:55

Posted: 28 Apr 2011 12:37 AM PDT

4-28-german-empl