Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Gold falling sharply
- IMF urges US to accelerate deficit cuts
- EURUSD has second leg to the upside
- GBPUSD squeezed toward 100 hour MA
- Feds Dudley. QE2 is not undertaken to weaken the dollar
- Bank of Canada Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged
- Bank of Canada unchanged. USDCAD moves higher
- ECB Stark says QE1 growth may be stronger
- Fed’s Dudley expects inflation to peak at 2.5%-3%. Employment lags
- EURUSD at highest level since January 2010
- Portugal Finance minister says will need bailout loans
- US Import Price Index Rise, Trade Balance Lower
- Import prices surge higher. Trade balance worsens to -$45.8 billion
- Canada House Price Index Rises, Merchandise Trade Slips
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.12.2011
| Posted: 12 Apr 2011 07:07 AM PDT
Gold has reversed and fallen sharply. The price fell below 200 hour MA and 38.2% without pausing suggesting some pretty good selling. THe midpoint of the move up from March 28 low to the high yesterday comes in at 1443.16 and is the next target level for the pair. Resistance now at 1451. The sharp move down has increased the uncertainty for the dollar. The sellers of the dollar against the EUR and the GBP have been forced to cover, and the moves have muddied the waters.
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| IMF urges US to accelerate deficit cuts Posted: 12 Apr 2011 07:02 AM PDT Failure to cut could be fiscally costly to the US
Meanwhile, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index comes out weaker at 40.8 vs expectations of 45.0. Last month it came in at 43. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD has second leg to the upside Posted: 12 Apr 2011 06:55 AM PDT
The EURUSD has continued it’s move higher with the second leg to the rally. The first leg took the price from the low at 1.4379 to the high at 1.4481. The correction came in short of the 38.2% at the 1.4448 level vs 1.4442. This helped contribute to the next surge higher which saw the price extend to 1.4518. The price has stalled at this level now. The market will be eyeing the 38.2% of this leg to the upside at the 1.4492 level for support. If it holds, look for another move higher. Targets on the upside include channel trendline resistance currently at the 1.4534 area (chart above). On the daily chart the 1.4550 level is also channel resistance for the pair (see chart below). Above that 1.4578 is the high price going all the way back to January 13th 2010..
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| GBPUSD squeezed toward 100 hour MA Posted: 12 Apr 2011 06:21 AM PDT
The GBPUSD is following the dollar selling clues and moves to test the 100 hour MA at the 1.6333 level. Above that the underside of the trendline broken earlier today at 1.6343 should provide some resistance for the pair.
Looking at the 5 minute chart, the price has stalled at the 50% Retracement of the weeks range. The surge back higher despite the weaker CPI data today is impressive. I would expect dips against the 200 bar MA (green line in the 5 minute chart) to find buyers now. That level comes in around the 1.6298 level. The 38.2% of the move down come in at 1.6304. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Feds Dudley. QE2 is not undertaken to weaken the dollar Posted: 12 Apr 2011 06:13 AM PDT He continues his talk in Hong Kong and his comments seem to once again be geared toward the dovish side. Feds Hoenig is expected to talk this morning. He is a hawk but a non voting member this year. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bank of Canada Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged Posted: 12 Apr 2011 06:03 AM PDT Canada Dollar little changed as bank of Canada keeps rate flat.
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| Bank of Canada unchanged. USDCAD moves higher Posted: 12 Apr 2011 06:01 AM PDT
The USDCAD has moved higher on the release and tests trendline resistance at the 0.9588 level. A break above will start to target the 200 hour MA at the 0.9619 level. Earlier today, the price moved above the 200 hour MA, but the price fell short of the 38.2% of the move down from the March 25th high.
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| ECB Stark says QE1 growth may be stronger Posted: 12 Apr 2011 05:57 AM PDT He also comments that increase in rates is move toward normalization. He adds that commodity prices main driver of inflation and that the global liquidity is adding to commodity-price inflation. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fed’s Dudley expects inflation to peak at 2.5%-3%. Employment lags Posted: 12 Apr 2011 05:50 AM PDT FED: Dudley says infl should peak at 2.5%-3%, sees no 2nd round effects. Outlook could be hurt by Japan quake and oil. He also comments that risk of deflation is greatly diminished. He is speaking in Hong Kong. He adds that the US is very far from where it wants to be on employment. If US cannot generate strong job growth soon, it could generate negative economic growth. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD at highest level since January 2010 Posted: 12 Apr 2011 05:48 AM PDT
The EURUSD has surged to new highs and trades at the highest level since January 2010. At that time the high reached 1.4579. This is a target for the pair. Before that I will be watching the 1.4550 level. This level corresponds to the upper channel resistance level (see chart above). | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Portugal Finance minister says will need bailout loans Posted: 12 Apr 2011 05:43 AM PDT …to cover financing from June. He acknowledges that is is premature to talk about whether or not 80 BN is appropriate. This is the number that is being talked about in the market. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| US Import Price Index Rise, Trade Balance Lower Posted: 12 Apr 2011 05:38 AM PDT Import Price Index(MoM): Survey: 2.1% Actual: 2.7% Prior: 1.4% Trade Balance: Survey: -44.0B Actual: -45.8B Prior: -46.3B Revised: -47.0B US Import Price rose to largest increase in more than a year and a half. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Import prices surge higher. Trade balance worsens to -$45.8 billion Posted: 12 Apr 2011 05:33 AM PDT Higher commodity prices and lower dollar contribute to the a 2.7% increase import prices for the month. THey YoY is up a large 9.7%. Meanwhile the trade deficit was higher than expected at -45.8 billion. It was better than last month however, which was at -47 billion. Ex Petroleum, the trade deficit improved to -19.942 from -20,051. Exports fell by -1.4% The Deficit with China improved to -$18.842 billion from -$23. 271 billion The Trade and price inflation are largely influenced by oil prices. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Canada House Price Index Rises, Merchandise Trade Slips Posted: 12 Apr 2011 05:33 AM PDT Canada New House Price Index(YoY): Survey: 2.0% Actual: 2.1% Prior: 1.9% Canada New House Price Index(MoM): Survey: 0.2% Actual: 0.4% Prior: 0.2% Feb vs. Jan Total(YoY)%: 2.1% vs 1.9% Total(3-Mon Annualized)%: 2.2% vs 1.9%
Canada Int'l Merchandise Trade: Survey: -0.5B Actual: 0.0B Prior: -0.1B | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.12.2011 Posted: 12 Apr 2011 05:31 AM PDT Good Morning: The JPY and CHF rose after Japan increased the severity rating for it’s nuclear crisis. This rating is the same that was placed on the Chernobyl nuclear crisis 15 years ago. Japan also had additional earthquakes yesterday that were 6+ on the Richter Scale, they were strong enough to shake buildings in Tokyo. Equity markets are lower across the board-and US Futures are also looking for a lower opening this morning. Oil:$109.33 Gold:$1465.10
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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