Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Richmond Fed Index weaker. Consumer Confidence better.
- US will never seek to weaken the US dollar - Geithner
- EURUSD runs into topside ceiling resistance
- Geithner says debt limit debate irresponsible…
- Case Schiller comes out -0.18%
- US Redbook MoM +1.2% vs Prev +1.1%
- ECBs Gonzalez-Paramo says April rate hike not part of a series of rate hikes
- BOEs Sentence says risk that inflation becomes entrenched
- US Treasury Secretary Geithner sees growth of 3-4% over the next few years
- GBPUSD moves below 100 hour MA but bull flag still a possibility
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.26.2011
- S&P Case Schiller National Home Price Index due at 9:00 AM
- The FXDD NY Opening Call for April 26th 2011
- UK CBI industrial order expectations -11; worse than expected
- USD/CHF making new lows
| Richmond Fed Index weaker. Consumer Confidence better. Posted: 26 Apr 2011 07:00 AM PDT Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index comes in at +10. This is weaker than +20 expected (and +20 last) Consumer Confidence for April comes in at 65.4%. This is better than 64.6 forecast | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| US will never seek to weaken the US dollar - Geithner Posted: 26 Apr 2011 06:17 AM PDT The market may have a different interpretation but it is traditional for the US Treasury Secretary to comment on how the US seeks a stronger dollar policy. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD runs into topside ceiling resistance Posted: 26 Apr 2011 06:13 AM PDT
The EURUSD extended up toward the days highs, and the highs from April 21st (at 1.4648) and found willing sellers. As the price was reaching the level, headlines from ECBs Gonzalez-Paramo saying the “rate hike in April was not the start of a series of hikes” helped take some of the upward momentum away from the pair and thwarted the efforts to extend higher - for the time being at least. Downside support comes in against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (at 1.4596) and the 38.2% of the days range at the 1.4591 level. A move below these levels should solicit another move lower for the pair today.
Overall, the bias is still bullish with the price failing on the break below the 100 hour MA earlier today. However, the bulls have to be cautious given the ceiling. On the daily chart (see below), the price has channel trendline resistance at the 1.4685 area. This would be the target on a break of the ceiling at the 1.4651 area. The channel has provided good support and resistance levels for the pair.
Despite the bullishness, I get the feeling that despite the dollar weakness, Trichet and Co. at the ECB are scared of a too strong EURO. The currency is elevated against the GBP and USD, in the middle of a 6 month range against the surging CHF and in the top 1/3 of the recent range against the JPY. So although inflation is elevated, the currencies relative strength should act as a slowing mechanism for the region. Trichet would like slower growth to keep inflation contained but at the same time, I suspect he is a little concerned about growth (although he won’t admit it). | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Geithner says debt limit debate irresponsible… Posted: 26 Apr 2011 06:05 AM PDT … but says lawmakers should be careful to not harm the US recovery prospects with debt level reduction. He thinks oil prices at current levels should not hurt global growth. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Case Schiller comes out -0.18% Posted: 26 Apr 2011 06:01 AM PDT MoM 20 cities -0.18% YoY -3.33% vs -3.3% This is slightly lower than expected. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| US Redbook MoM +1.2% vs Prev +1.1% Posted: 26 Apr 2011 05:56 AM PDT The YoY comes in at +5.3% vs +5.1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ECBs Gonzalez-Paramo says April rate hike not part of a series of rate hikes Posted: 26 Apr 2011 05:55 AM PDT This is congruent with the comments from Trichet and seems to be jaw boning by the ECB to try and talk down (or slow) the ascent of the EURUSD. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BOEs Sentence says risk that inflation becomes entrenched Posted: 26 Apr 2011 05:51 AM PDT The credibility on CPI may have eroded with the failure to address CPI above the 2% inflation target. He also comments that would caution against putting too much weight on Wednesday’s GDP. He thinks that the UK has allowed GBP to depreciate more than neede to support export growth. Although the GBPUSD is well supported, the EURGBP is near 1 year highs.
Sentence is a hawk. His comments are congruent with his views on the economy and inflation. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| US Treasury Secretary Geithner sees growth of 3-4% over the next few years Posted: 26 Apr 2011 05:37 AM PDT High oil prices are a headwind however and unemployment is still fairly high. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GBPUSD moves below 100 hour MA but bull flag still a possibility Posted: 26 Apr 2011 05:36 AM PDT
The GBPUSD is being pressured in the NY morning trade in a continuation of the up and down nature of the trading day today. The price has moved back below the 100 hour MA at the 1.6486 level. The key target price on the downside is the 1.6432 level where the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the April 18th low to the April 21st high is located. Channel trendline support is also at the level (bull flag possible). I would expect good support against the level. RIght now, with the price below the 100hour MA, it is giving the sellers some confidence. However, do not be surprised if the price moves back above the 100 hour MA, that a bid returns with the channel resistance at the 1.6517 as the next target and tested. A move above would get the bull flag technicians thinking higher levels. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.26.2011 Posted: 26 Apr 2011 05:28 AM PDT
The USD got knocked back again in overnight trading. Speculation that the Fed will keep interest rates low to help support the US economy is not dollar positive-and the markets have reacted as such. With Chairman Bernanke expected to keep policy and interest rates steady-USD weakness will continue. CHF rose as investors continue to worry about sovereign government concerns in both Libya, and Syria-thus causing a rush to the safety of the Swiss Franc. The Greek government says it needs to revise it’s 2010 budget upward-as a worse than expected recession in Feb caused them to miss their goals. ECB President Trichet stated that policy makers should be prepared to raise rates in order to curb inflation. European equity markets are higher in Europe after Ford Motor and UBS both beat estimates. Asian markets were mixed, and US Futures are higher at this time. Oil:$112.31 Gold:$1505.80
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| S&P Case Schiller National Home Price Index due at 9:00 AM Posted: 26 Apr 2011 05:09 AM PDT
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The FXDD NY Opening Call for April 26th 2011 Posted: 26 Apr 2011 04:13 AM PDT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UK CBI industrial order expectations -11; worse than expected Posted: 26 Apr 2011 03:04 AM PDT Sterling, which has been trading lower, continues to sell on the release. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 26 Apr 2011 02:09 AM PDT The USD/CHF is once again making new lows after moving through the old low of .87712 on the hourly chart. Note: these are all time lows. The pair had tested the .87712 three times in the past day before making a break lower.
From a daily perspective, this .8760 level is testing bearish channel support which we have been seeing recently. A close below this line could be a signal for further bearish trading.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Good Morning:
| You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 | |
No comments:
Post a Comment