Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Pimco El-Erian says they are not buying bonds
EURJPY corrects off the lows. Looks for rotation back down
EURUSD rotates back to the downside as stocks look to open
Redbook sales are higher
Geithner on CNBC, Bloomberg and now Fox
Gold approaches $1500 and finds sellers
Housing Starts and Permits higher. Revisions better as well
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.19.2011
USDCAD makes new low for day. Low for year in sites
ECB Bini Smaghi says must reassure markets that there must be no debt restructuring
The NY Opening Forex Commentary for April 19th 2011
Canada CPI Numbers Very Strong
Canada CPI Figures Due at 7AM
Eurozone PMI Figures Stay According to Forecast, Current Account Drops Hard
Eurozone Current Account, PMI Data Due at 4AM

Pimco El-Erian says they are not buying bonds

Posted: 19 Apr 2011 06:58 AM PDT

Comments are made during a Bloomberg radio interview

EURJPY corrects off the lows. Looks for rotation back down

Posted: 19 Apr 2011 06:45 AM PDT

The EURJPY fell sharply yesterday reaching a new low for April at 116.45. The fall fell through channel support in the process. In London trade today the price extended back above the trendline and approached the 38.2% retracement of at 118.34. This is of the last leg to the downside in the pair.

The ability to hold that retracement keeps the bears in charge in the short term. A move back below the channel trendline at 117.64 currently, should give bears additional confidence. Failure to do so, however, would neutralize the bias for the pair with trendline below and resistance at the 38.2% being the borderline levels.

Note that markets are quiet this morning after the action packed Monday. Longer term, the EURJPY has been supported on the back of higher EURO rates and the idea that growth the effects of the earthquake/tsunami will keep growth subdued in Japan for the time being. This should benefit the EURO. So watch the 117.64 level today for clues.

EURUSD rotates back to the downside as stocks look to open

Posted: 19 Apr 2011 06:13 AM PDT

THe EURUSD has rotated back down after failing to continue rally much above the 38.2% retracement level. The market will be watching the 1.4294 level now as resistance. If the price can hold this level, we should see some further selling pressure.

Redbook sales are higher

Posted: 19 Apr 2011 05:56 AM PDT

The rise by 1.1% vs 0.9% last month. YoY up 5.1% vs +4.7% last month.

Geithner on CNBC, Bloomberg and now Fox

Posted: 19 Apr 2011 05:55 AM PDT

Highlights:

US must get ahead of problem
Both parties must work together
Must start to bring deficits down
Debt restructuring composition of reform will matter to economy
Congress will increase debt ceiling
The biggest source of burden is rising health care costs
US will absolutely keep AAA rating
Better prospects for Bipartisan agreement
Budget targets must be meaningful.

Gold approaches $1500 and finds sellers

Posted: 19 Apr 2011 05:43 AM PDT

Housing Starts and Permits higher. Revisions better as well

Posted: 19 Apr 2011 05:32 AM PDT

Building Permits 594K annualized vs a revised higher 534K (was 517K)
HOusing Starts rose to 549K annualized from a revised higher 512K (was 479K)

Canada Leading Indicators rose by a stronger 0.8% while wholesale Sales fell by a greater than expected -0.6% from -0.2%.

USDJPY moves higher on the better data.

USDCAD heads even lower tehi 0.9542 and 0.9525 being the lowest level since November 2007.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.19.2011

Posted: 19 Apr 2011 05:25 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The euro rose overnight versus the USD and JPY as data showed that Germany’s manufacturing growth rose unexpectedly. This adds to the markets speculation that the ECB will need to raise interest rates in the near future.
In other EU news-yields on Greek 2 year notes rose to 20%-as investors realize that the country will need to restructure it’s debt.
Down-under-the RBA seems to be content with rates where they are-and the Aussie will likely be driven by market activity-rather than any fundamental news from Australia.

European equity markets rose, as corporate results came in better than expected. US Futures are also higher at this time.
Asian shares were lower-as continued bad news from Japan kept their equity markets muted.

Oil traded lower as signs of a weaker US economy added to the markets speculation that the demand for gasoline may decline.
With gas at over $4/gal in the US-their have been reports that consumers are alreeady starting to curtail their driving habits.

Oil:$106.35 Gold:$1495.20

TIME FOR EST. PRIOR     EST.

8:30A.M. BUILDING PERMITS MoM% MAR. 1.10% -8.20% -5.20%

8:30A.M. HOUSING STARTS MoM% MAR. 8.60% -22.50%

8:30A.M. BUILDING PERMITS              MAR.      540K 517K       534K

8:30A.M. HOUSING STARTS        MAR. 520K 479K

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

USDCAD makes new low for day. Low for year in sites

Posted: 19 Apr 2011 05:22 AM PDT

The higher than expected CPI has the USDCAD moving lower. The YoY rose to 3.3% from 2.8%. The core CPI rose to 1.7% from 1.2%. Prices rose across the board with the headline up 1.1% and the core (which subtracts volatile measures) rose by 0.7%.

The USDCAD has support at 0.9557, 0.9541 and the low from April 8th at 0.9525. A break of this level would represent the lowest level since November 2007.

The upside resistance levels come in at 0.9595 now up to 0.9601.

With the higher inflation, the market will be looking for the BOC to start to lean more toward tightening.

ECB Bini Smaghi says must reassure markets that there must be no debt restructuring

Posted: 19 Apr 2011 05:01 AM PDT

By having debt restructuring he worries that demand for European debt will be hindered.

The NY Opening Forex Commentary for April 19th 2011

Posted: 19 Apr 2011 04:58 AM PDT

Canada CPI Numbers Very Strong

Posted: 19 Apr 2011 04:01 AM PDT

Consumer Price Index (YoY): Survey: 2.8% Actual: 3.3% Prior: 2.2%

Consumer Price Index (MoM): Survey: 0.6% Actual: 1.1% Prior: 0.3%

Mar vs. Feb
Food: 1.5% vs 0.3%
Shelter: 0.1% vs 0.0%
Household Operations: 0.3% vs 0.5%
Clothing, shoes: 5.6% vs 1.7%
Transportation: 1.8% vs -0.2%
Health, Personal Care: 0.3% vs 0.2%
Recreation, education: 1.1% vs 1.1%
Alchohol, tobacco: -0.1% vs -0.1%
Goods: 2.0% vs 0.3%
Services: 0.3% vs 0.2%
Energy: 3.7% vs 0.2%
Gasoline: 6.6% vs 0.6%

Bank of Canada CPI Core (YoY): Survey: 1.2% Actual: 1.7% Prior: 0.9%

Bank of Canada CPI Core (MoM): Survey: 0.2% Actual: 0.7% Prior: 0.2%

Canada CPI Figures Due at 7AM

Posted: 19 Apr 2011 03:03 AM PDT