Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Gold moving back higher. Reverses the dollars gains
University of Michigan final revision comes in at 69.8 vs 70.0
EURUSD breaks trendline support
USDJPY holds 81.12 and moves higher
NZDUSD surges higher after failing to satisfy the shorts
Personal Spending as expected, Income better. Canada GDP weaker. USDCAD rises.
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.29.2011
US Dollar reaches 3 year low at 72.869
US Core PCE expected to come in at 0.1%
Canada GDP expected to come in flat this month
Personal Income and Spending due at
Swiss KOF barometer 2.29; better than expected.
Eurozone CPI
E/Z economic confidence and consumer confidence weaker than forecast
Euro-zone money supply/private loans

Gold moving back higher. Reverses the dollars gains

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 07:10 AM PDT

With

Gold making yet again new highs the dollar correction slows.

The longer term next target comes in at 1571.54.

University of Michigan final revision comes in at 69.8 vs 70.0

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 07:08 AM PDT

Meanwhile the April NAPM came in at 68 vs 63.0 expected. Although stronger this does not carry the weight of other regional indices.

EURUSD breaks trendline support

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 06:45 AM PDT

The downside trendline was broken in the EURUSD and should lead to further corrective pressure. The trendline will now be resistance for the pair. That level comes in at 1.4757.

The Chicago PMI has come out at 67.6 vs expectation of 68.2. This should lead to a lower dollar. If the EURUSD is to continue to correct, staying below the trendline is needed. The next targets is the 1.4798 and the 1.4769 levels

USDJPY holds 81.12 and moves higher

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 06:28 AM PDT

The USDJPY tested the low levels from the post Central Bank intervention period and has moved higher. The holding of this level should solicit some covering action from the sharp two day fall in the pair. However, the comments from the Fed/Bernanke continue to weigh on the dollar longer term so be aware for limited upside potential. The 81.62 and 81.74 where the 100 hour MA and the 38.2% of the move down is located.

The JPY is a special currency in that the economic situation is likely to be weak over the 1H of 2011 as the country rebounds from the effects of the earthquake/tsunami devastation. A stronger JPY is not what the BOJ was looking to achieve. The good news is exporters in Japan, had the opportunity to sell USDJPY at higher levels on the move up to the 85.50 area. This allowed them to repatriate funds at rates that were congruent with the highs going back to August 2010. They had a chance and it appears that the move down from the high was just that…

It is unlikely the BOJ wants the USDJPY to move too quickly to the downside but the intention of the buying may have served its purpose and it is up to the market to decide now.

NZDUSD surges higher after failing to satisfy the shorts

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 05:59 AM PDT

The NZDUSD has moved back higher after holding support against the November 2010 low. The move to the low also breached the 200 hour MA (see green line in the chart below) but quickly rejected the move. Today,the pair has found good buying that has taken the pair back above the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below). The next target is the 0.8082 and the 0.8104 level.

Personal Spending as expected, Income better. Canada GDP weaker. USDCAD rises.

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 05:35 AM PDT

Personal Spending caem in at 0.6% vs 0.9% last month while Personal Income came in at +0.5% vs +0.4% last month. The Income data was better than expected and is good news for consumers.

In Canada GDP for the month came in weaker at -0.2% vs expectations of unchanged.

The USDCAD has move higher on the news and looks to move through the 100 hour MA at the 0.9514 level. The 200 hour MA is close by at the 0.9526 level. The CAD has been supported (lower USDCAD) by higher oil prices

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.29.2011

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 05:22 AM PDT

Good Morning:

London markets were closed today-as the UK takes a national holiday for the Royal wedding.

In EZ news the German Retail Sales data was very weak-as consumers in the regions largest economy slowed down on their spending, as the high price of energy takes a bite out of their discretionary income. This data may put into question the speed that the ECB will continue to increase interest rates.
CHF was strong again-as data suggested that the economy is operating smoothly, and growing.

The continued USD weakness is due in part to the Fed’s monetary ploicy staying on hold, and the economy limping ahead, not really gaining any significant traction.

Asian and European equity markets are mixed-and US Futures are higher at this time.

Oil continues to soar-along with gold.

Oil:$113.22 Gold:$1539.20

TIME		FOR	EST.	PRIOR
8:30A.M.	EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX	1Q	0.50%	0.40%
8:30A.M.	PERSONAL INCOME	MAR.	0.40%	0.30%
8:30A.M.	PERSONAL SPENDING	MAR.	0.50%	0.70%
8:30A.M.	PCE DEFLATOR YoY	MAR.	1.90%	1.60%
8:30A.M.	PCE CORE MoM	MAR.	0.10%	0.20%
8:30A.M.	PCE CORE YoY	MAR.	0.90%	0.90%
9:45A.M.	CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER	APRIL	68.2O	7O.6
9:55A.M.	U. OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE	APRIL F	7O.O	69.6O
10:00A.M.	ANNUAL REVISIONS:RETAIL SALES

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

US Dollar reaches 3 year low at 72.869

Posted: 29 Apr 2011 05:17 AM PDT

The dollar index is a weighted basket of currencies (FXDD does not quote it as a traded instrument). The basket is weighted so the EURUSD has a high weight in the index. Although currencies like the USDJPY are well above the lows, other currencies like the EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCHF are at extreme levels. The combination is what has the index at the lows.

USDJPY: The USDJPY reached new week lows today with the 80.96 level on being the next target support on the daily chart below. The pair is down to the non-trending area after the concerted central bank intervention. The low for that consolidation was 80.69, while the high was at 81.30.

EURUSD: The pair is pushing yesterday’s high at 1.4881 with support along trendline at 1.4855. The market has to make a choice. Does it break higher after consolidating, or crack the trendline and look to correct lower?