Forex Market Updates & Commentary

AUDUSD reaches the highest level since May 1982 (pre float era)
Canada PM Harper worried about recent inflation
Existing Home Sales rise 5.1MM annualized
ECB Orphanides says Greek Restructuring is unneccesary and unwise
EURUSD moves to test intraday trendline. 1.4484 target below
USDJPY fall below the 82.69 level and scoots lower
Greece potential for debt restructuring over the weekend
The Forex Morning Call for April 20th is available for viewing
Gold channel trendlines contains on daily and hourly so far
Forex Traders Course Thursday April 21 2011 Lesson 16 Part II
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.20.2011
Mexican Unemployment expected to fall
Existing Home Sales expected to rise to 5 MM annual pace
US Mortgage Applications Rise to 5.30%
US Mortgage Applications Data Due at 7AM

AUDUSD reaches the highest level since May 1982 (pre float era)

Posted: 20 Apr 2011 07:22 AM PDT

The AUDUSD has reached the highest level since May 1982 (see report from last night). There was resistance at the 1.0600 level which was taken out earlier today after putting up a little fight. However, since then the price has continued its surge to the upside. The AUD$ floated in December 1983. The move to 1.0690 area is to the high fixing when the currency was not floating.

The last move to the upside comes after the correction off the high found buyers against the 38.2% retracement. Traders look at this retracement as a key clue especially in a trend move. Trends are directional. Trends are fast. If bears in a trend move higher can not prove they want the price lower through a 38.2% retracement, shorts get squeezed. This is what happened at against the 1.0644 level. As a result, the market moved higher.

Canada PM Harper worried about recent inflation

Posted: 20 Apr 2011 07:08 AM PDT

YEsterday, CPI was much higher than expectations. This led to a sharp fall in the USDCAD (higher CAD$) and expectations the Bank of Canada would need to raise interest rates.

He hads the inflation numbers underscores the need to NOT raise taxes.

Today the USDCAD reached new lows since November 2007

Existing Home Sales rise 5.1MM annualized

Posted: 20 Apr 2011 07:00 AM PDT

8.4 months of supply
40% are distressed sales.
Median Sales Price = $159,600 down 5.9% for the year
Average Sale Price = $207,000, down 3.5% from the year.

The prior month was revised higher to 4.92MM from 4.88 MM

Mexican EMployment fell to 4.61% from 5.38%. This was better than expected.

ECB Orphanides says Greek Restructuring is unneccesary and unwise

Posted: 20 Apr 2011 06:45 AM PDT

This is as long as country sticks to IMF/EU programme

Talk of Greek debt restructuring is damaging to the EURO area. He adds that interest rates are appropriately accomodative. However, he adds the bond buying program is increasingly hard to justify.

Greece has been bailed out from EU and the IMF with guarantees of funding. It does not stop interest rates increasing as the “market” decides the risk of the debt they hold. Nor does it mean the money spigot will last forever from the EU/IMF.

Meanwhile, the EURUSD continues to rise in the face of all the issues as shorts continue to get squeezed. The 2010 high for the EURUSD comes in at 1.4579. The high today surpassed the 2011 high of 1.4519 (high reached 1.4546)

EURUSD moves to test intraday trendline. 1.4484 target below

Posted: 20 Apr 2011 06:33 AM PDT

The EURUSD has started to show some signs of topping. A trendline is being tested on the 5 minute chart. The 38.2% of the the move higher today is the next key target at the 1.4484 level.

The high today took out the previous highs from April at the 1.4518 level. The high for 2010 comes in at 1.4579. That remains a target on the upside.

USDJPY fall below the 82.69 level and scoots lower

Posted: 20 Apr 2011 06:26 AM PDT

The JPY has strengthened after the USDJPY fell below the 82.67-69 support level. The 82.67 level is the 100 day MA. The next target comes out at the 82.35 level. The low on Monday came in at 82.18

Greece potential for debt restructuring over the weekend

Posted: 20 Apr 2011 06:19 AM PDT

This is a rumor in the market.

The 5 year yield on Greek debt has surged to 16.427%. The spread to German 5 year debt has risen to 13.736% which is up from 12.987% last week and 11.897% the week prior.

The Forex Morning Call for April 20th is available for viewing

Posted: 20 Apr 2011 06:03 AM PDT

Gold channel trendlines contains on daily and hourly so far

Posted: 20 Apr 2011 05:39 AM PDT

Gold has maintained the price below the topside trendline today off the daily chart. The level comes in today at 1505.33. The high reached 1505.43.

Support comes in currently at the 1499.29 level which is the channel trendline on the hourly chart. A break below this line should lead to some further profit taking.

Gold remains a place to park money. The US negative watch, the uncertainty in Washington. The other global issues (Japan, EU debt, etc.) keeps the excess liquidity flowing that way. Technicals are following with the fundamentals. Watch the levels.

Forex Traders Course Thursday April 21 2011 Lesson 16 Part II

Posted: 20 Apr 2011 05:22 AM PDT

Forex Traders Course with Greg and Shawn Thursday at 4pm- This is PART II of Lesson 16.

Our Lesson Wrap UP and Review will continue on Thursday with the progression through the forex trader’s foundation. After that, I will look toward the review of the tools traders can use to satisfy their Mission Statement and Game Plan. You do need to register but it is FREE.

CLICK HERE TO REGISTER

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.20.2011

Posted: 20 Apr 2011 05:21 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Risk took center stage in overnight FX markets. Euro was strong after a robust Spanish bond auction-and positive flows from Asia.
Aussie was the main attraction-as the AUD/USD pair rose to a new post float high of 1.0685. The GBP took a back seat as dovish comments from the BOE showed that interest rates may not be rising any time soon.
The JPY lost some ground-as commodities and equity markets gained overnight.

World equity markets are higher-and US futures are screaming higher ahead of this morning’s opening.
Results from Intel beat estimates as did L’Oreal (the world’s largest cosmetic company). AT&T, Peugeot (Europe’s 2nd largest car manufacturer) also beat estimates.
81 % of the 42 companies in the S&P that have reported earnings have exceeded analysts expectations.

Commodities jumped as Oil and Gold lead the way. Gold is now firmly in the $1500/oz handle-where does it go?

Oil:$109.49 Gold:$1503.30

TIME		FOR	EST.	PRIOR
7:00A.M.	MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS	15-Apr		-6.70%
10:00A.M.	EXISTING HOME SALES MoM	MAR.	2.50%	-9.60%
10:00A.M.	EXISTING HOME SALES	MAR.	5.00M	4.88M