Monday, April 18, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

US Treasury’s Miller says S&P outlook underestimates US..

Posted: 18 Apr 2011 06:30 AM PDT

…leaders ability to come together to deal with US fiscal challenges

He adds that both political parties now agree it is time to bring down deficits as a share of GDP and that the US is strengthening as it emerges from record recession

EURUSD moves to trendline resistance on S&P outlook

Posted: 18 Apr 2011 06:22 AM PDT

fxdd-pic-2534

The EURUSD moved sharply to channel trendline resistance on the S&P outlook change but found profit taking sellers. The support now comes in at the 1.4302 which was the low from earlier today. A move below that level would be confusing to traders. Look for buyers near this level, but cautious buying as markets are volatile.

US policy makers put under pressure to come to solution

Posted: 18 Apr 2011 06:16 AM PDT

The first rating agency has blinked and warned investors that the US debt may not be as risk free as thought. The rating remains affirmed at AAA, but they do warn that the US policy makers need to start to come to a viable plan to cut structural deficits.  Currently, they cite the path to addressing the budget deficits and rising government indeptedness is “not clear”.

They say that an agreement not reached and meaningful implementation is not begun by 2013, this would render the US fiscal profile to be meaningfully weaker than that of peer ‘AAA’ sovereigns

S&P says affirmed rating in US but outlook revised to negative for US LT debt

Posted: 18 Apr 2011 06:05 AM PDT

1 and 3 likelihood that S&P could lower US rating in 2 year. Reflects increased risk on fiscal issues. The dollar has moved lower on the news. Stocks lower. Be careful.

USDJPY tests last weeks lows at 92.94 on correction off 100 day MA

Posted: 18 Apr 2011 05:48 AM PDT

fxdd-pic-2532

The USDJPY is back off lows after testing the 100 day MA at the 82.70 level earlier today (low reached 82.64).  The move higher is testing the first logical target which comes in at the 92.94 level. This was the lows from last weeks trading (Thursday and Friday trade). Above that comes resistance at the 83.25 which corresponds with the 38.2% of the move down from the April 13th high.  This would be a modest correction of the larger move down which started on April 6th  (high 85.46).

Traders should also watch the 200 day MA at the 83.38. This is the green line in the daily chart above.

fxdd-pic-2533

Noyer adds fiscal tightening not stifling growth

Posted: 18 Apr 2011 05:27 AM PDT

A move above the 1.4281 level should lead to some profit taking  with 1.4302 (low from earlier today) being the next short term target.  The 38.2% of the days trading range come in at 1.4325, and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.4340 level currently and moving lower.   These would also be upside targets on corrections.

fxdd-pic-2531

ECB Noyer says EURO has provided price stability

Posted: 18 Apr 2011 05:15 AM PDT

He adds that the economic cycles in the Euro area are becoming more sychronized. 

The EURUSD has continued lower in early NY trade and moved below the November 2010 high at 1.4281.  This level was broken earlier this month on April 6th.  The low today has reached 1.4266 and the correction has extended up to 1.4282 but come back off a bit.  Staying below the 1.4281 level will keep the bears in charge.

German government sources say Greece will need some restructuring.

Posted: 18 Apr 2011 04:47 AM PDT

The unnamed sourse says they will need restructuring before the end of the summer.  This runs counter to Greek comments earlier. The EURUSD makes new lows for the day.

Bank of Greece’s Provopolous; restructuring of debt not desirable

Posted: 18 Apr 2011 02:27 AM PDT

* Greece must step up fiscal efforts

* Greece debt dynamic remains unfavorable

ECB’s Bonello on the Wires

Posted: 18 Apr 2011 02:11 AM PDT

Says:

  • Urges caution with rates as debt crisis persists
  • Caution warranted if price expectations contained
  • ECB should not impede growth in debt-strapped nations
  • ‘Need to balance doctrine with pragmatism’
  • Sovereign debt crisis ‘not yet behind us’
  • Risks to growth outlook may tilt to downside
  • ECB ‘Cant do very much’ about imported inflation’
  • ECB Must ‘preserve all options ‘ amid uncertainty
  • ECB will see what ’if anything’ needs to be done
  • ECB may re-widen rate corridor ‘quite soon’
  • ECB could suspend collateral threshold for Portugal

Greece requests restrucing of debt at ECOFIN

Posted: 18 Apr 2011 12:39 AM PDT

News sent Eur/Usd spiralling down to 1.4300, currently at 1.4320.

Moody’s analyst Abercromby on Irish banks

Posted: 18 Apr 2011 12:11 AM PDT

* bank recapitalization aids confidence

* Irish stress tests broadly inline with Moody’s view

* ongoing ECB support postive for Irish banks

* banks unlikely to tap term debt markets before state

* Irish banks won’t easily replace deposit outflows

France’s Lagarde; no need to restructure Greek debt

Posted: 17 Apr 2011 11:33 PM PDT

Eur/Usd  trading at 1.4384, up slightly since statement.

4-18 Economic Calendar

Posted: 17 Apr 2011 08:54 PM PDT

q1

Euro Drifts Lower on Sovereign Debt Concern

Posted: 17 Apr 2011 05:33 PM PDT

The Euro has moved below the 1.44 handle to start the trading week on concerns over the sovereign debt crisis worsening, even though the ECB’s Coene said earlier in an interview that ‘market indicators suggest Euro contagion has ended.’ The EUR/USD has fallen below the 200hr moving average for the first time since April 1st as we see the pair being resisted by the trendline below as it has appreciated.

 eurusd1

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