Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Friday Forex Wrap Show: Greg and Shawn TODAY 12:30pm
• Fed’s Evans on the Wires
• Mexico Overnight Rate Stays Unchanged
• Michigan Consumer Sentiment Increases
• EURUSD stops on the 200 hour MA. The first test holds
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary takes a look at the Commodity currencies
• Industrial Production improves better than expected
• EURUSD wanders to low for the day…
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.15.2011
• US CPI comes in as expected. Empire State Index better
• Feds Plosser on CNBC
• The NY Opening Forex Call for April 15th 2011
• USD/JPY Firmer
• Euro-zone CPI and Trade Balance Stronger Than Expected
• USD/JPY Re-Testing Hourly Lows

Friday Forex Wrap Show: Greg and Shawn TODAY 12:30pm Posted: 15 Apr 2011 07:33 AM PDT Friday Forex Wrap Show with Greg and Shawn TODAY at 12:30pm. Spend an hour with us. We’ll be looking at the markets and we’ll be looking for trends. Reserve a seat now

Fed’s Evans on the Wires Posted: 15 Apr 2011 07:06 AM PDT Chicago Fed’s Evans giving a speech in New York: Evans says that employment, inflation are below the fed objectives. Stating that they will also call for accommodation and that he is not convinced the Fed should tackle asset bubbles. Monetary policy ‘too blunt’ for asset bubbles. Evans is also stating that regulation is a proper instrument on systemic risk and calls for ‘credible system of market disipline”

Mexico Overnight Rate Stays Unchanged Posted: 15 Apr 2011 07:01 AM PDT Mexico overnight rate has stayed unchanged at 4.50%, USD/MXN trades lower on the news.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Increases Posted: 15 Apr 2011 06:57 AM PDT

EURUSD stops on the 200 hour MA. The first test holds Posted: 15 Apr 2011 06:45 AM PDT See prior post by CLICKING HERE

The NY Morning Forex Commentary takes a look at the Commodity currencies Posted: 15 Apr 2011 06:35 AM PDT

Industrial Production improves better than expected Posted: 15 Apr 2011 06:18 AM PDT The Industrial Production rose by 0.8% and the prior month was revised higher to +0.1% from -0.1%. The Capacity Utilization came in at 77.4 which was up from 76.9% last month.  This was the highest level since August 2008. Good numbers combined with better Empire Manufacturing should benefit the dollar but it is Friday and activity could be effected by supply/demand flows.

EURUSD wanders to low for the day… Posted: 15 Apr 2011 05:46 AM PDT The EURUSD has wandered to the low for the day - extending the narrow trading range. Today Ireland was downgrade two notches and this should have pressured the pair. Yet the market took it in stride. Nevertheless, the pair is down today keeping the saw tooth pattern over the last 8 days (Up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down). Yesterday’s close came in at 1.4486. On the daily chart the price is below the upper trendline which was broken last Friday. There has not been a close below the trendline, but with the price below the old trendline today, the momentum may be shifting (the level comes in at 1.4435). Stay below this and the bears may take comfort and look to push the market lower. The weeks range 1.4365 to 1.4518 (153 pips) is quite narrow and could solicit an extension before the week is done. So be aware. On the hourly chart, the price is moving toward a key support level. Trendline and 200 hour MA come in at the 1.4394 and 1.4386 levels respectively.  The 38.2% come in not far below at 1.4378.  The market is used to the range this week so look for buyers against the level. However, a break below and momentum should develop.  Watch 1.4434 on a correction. If it can hold, the downside stays in charge.  We will see.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.15.2011 Posted: 15 Apr 2011 05:31 AM PDT Good Morniping: We end the week with Moody’s downgrading Ireland to Baa3 from Baa1-outlook negative.  The Euro slipped after this news. Moody’s cited an expected decline of government’s financial strength, and the country’s weaker economic growth as the main catalyst for the  downgrade.  This is the lowest investment grade that Moody’s offers before the rating goes to junk status. Greece’s Prime Minister stated that Greece will not need to restructure their debt-as he will initiate spending cuts and state-asset sales to achieve the deficit reduction goals that they need. In other Euro Zone news, a report showed that inflation in the region jumped to the fasted pace in 2 years.  The ECB lifted rates last week-and is expected to increase rates further this year. World equity markets were mixed-and US Futures are lower this morning. US CPI printed at +.5%-this is whawas expected.t  Oil:$107.71                                                              Gold:$1477.40   TODAY’S RELEASES TIME FOR EST. PRIOR    REVISED 8:30A.M. CPI MoM MAR. 0.50% 0.50% 8:30A.M. CPI EX FOOD & ENERGY MoM MAR. 0.20% 0.20% 8:30A.M. CPI YoY      MAR. 2.60% 2.10% 8:30A.M. CPI EX FOOD & ENERGY YoY MAR. 1.20% 1.10% 8:30A.M. CPI CORE INDEX SA MAR. 223.O29 8:30A.M. CPI NSA MAR. 223.15O 221.3O9 8:30A.M. EMPIRE MANUFACTURING APRIL 17.OO     17.5O 9:00A.M. TOTAL NET TIC FLOWS  FEB. $32.5B 9:00A.M. NETLONG TERM TIC FLOWS FEB. $42.3B     $51.5B 9:15A.M INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION  MAR. 0.60% -0.10% 0.00% 9:15A.M CAPACITY UTILIZATION MAR. 77.40% 76.30% 77.00% 9:55A.M. U. OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE APRIL     68.8O      67.5O      HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

US CPI comes in as expected. Empire State Index better Posted: 15 Apr 2011 05:30 AM PDT The headline CPI came in at 0.5% which was what was expected. The Ex Food and Energy (Core) rose by a lower 0.1% vs expectations of 0.2% The YoY headline rose to 2.7% vs 2.1% last month The Core YoY rose to 1.2% from 1.1% last month Meanwhile the Empire Man. Index rose to 21.7 from 17.5. This is the highest level since April 2010

Feds Plosser on CNBC Posted: 15 Apr 2011 05:14 AM PDT 3.5% GDP possible Fundamentals are still there in the economy Pretty good numbers on employment Inflation is not imminent The Fed is not behind the curve Asset sales in the cards this year

The NY Opening Forex Call for April 15th 2011 Posted: 15 Apr 2011 05:03 AM PDT

USD/JPY Firmer Posted: 15 Apr 2011 02:49 AM PDT Since the last post we have seen some buying of the USD/JPY and the pair has moved higher through the 23.6% fibo line. Continued momemtum could see the pair visit 83.443.

Euro-zone CPI and Trade Balance Stronger Than Expected Posted: 15 Apr 2011 02:01 AM PDT CPI (y/y) - Survey: 2.6%   Actual: 2.7%   Prior: 2.6% Core CPI (y/y) - Survey: 1.1%   Actual: 1.3%   Prior: 1.0% Trade Balance - Survey: -3.4B   Actual: -2.4%   Prior: -3.3B

USD/JPY Re-Testing Hourly Lows Posted: 15 Apr 2011 01:16 AM PDT In addition to re-testing hourly trendline resistance, the USD/JPY is now re-testing the low of 82.943 after trading continually lower this session with some help from a better than expected revised industrial production reading. Should we find support at this level, we look to 83.25 as the topside target. If the pair should break this level, we look to the daily chart for a significant level further lower which we find at 82.717; the 100 day moving average.

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