Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- AUDCAD looks to break higher but will have to wait until next week
- Friday Wrap show with Greg and Shawn
- 4-22 Economic Calendar
- Traders Course Lesson 16 Rebroadcast April 21 2011
- Another 5.6 quake in the same region as the earlier one
- The Midday Forex Call for April 21st is available for viewing
- USDCHF finds a floor
- EURUSD correction lower stalls
| AUDCAD looks to break higher but will have to wait until next week Posted: 22 Apr 2011 07:12 AM PDT The AUD dollar has been bid as interest rates have increased and growth from selling of commodities has been brisk - especially to China and other emerging economies. The CAD dollar has also been a strong currency as they benefit from higher oil prices, less banking woes and the potential for a rebounding US economy - the largest importer of Canada goods. When you have two strong economies, who wins? In the case of the AUDCAD, the pair has been moving back and forth over the last 7-8 months. Prior to that the AUD was the winner as interest rate increases in Australia outpaced all other major economies. The daily chart shows the rise from 0.8588 to the high of 1.0235 (see daily chart)
Over the last 7-8 months, the price has range traded between 0.9622 and 1.0254. The low for the correction was reached on March 18th at 0.9626. The move to the low took the price through the 200 day MA for the first time since August 2010 (green line in the chart above) and should have led to more selling and a test of the next target - the 38.2% retracement. This level was indeed tested - the low reached 0.9626, the 38.2% came in at 0.9606. However, the inability to move below that key level and the move back above the 200 day MA, was a clue the correction was likely over (risk defined) and this led to the last rally higher for the pair. Looking at the last rally higher , the move has taken the price back above the 100 day MA (blue line) and initially peaked at the 1.01173 level. The correction off that high took the price back down to test both the 100 day MA and the 38.2% retracement (see chart below). The 100 day MA came in at 0.9942. The 38.2% cam in at 0.9930. The low on the corrrection was 0.9938. The key support held and this has given the bulls added incentive to target the upside.
The price made new highs for the pair moving through the 1.0235 level (December 24th 2011 high). The high reached 1.0249. Today the price high has reached 1.0246. The low extended to 1.0210. It is quiet holiday trading. Next week the market will have a decision to make. Looking at the hourly chart the bias is bullish (see chart below). The price is above trendline support. It is well above the 100 hour MA and the 38.2% of the recent move to the upside at the 1.0167 level. The worry is the market has not found momentum with the new 5 month high. The price move above the 1.0235 Dec 24th high has only extended to 1.0249. Trendline support comes in at 1.0216 currently and that should be technical support. There is higher trendline support but with the quiet market that could give way. On Sunday, look for support against the trendline and the lows from today’s trade at 1.0210. A move below that, the 1.0167 level will be target support (the 38.2% of the move up from the April 19th low to the high).
On the topside, a move above the 1.0235 and the high at 1.0249 level should target higher levels, with channel trendline target of 1.0290 area and 1.0325 being the next target areas (from the channels - see chart below).
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| Friday Wrap show with Greg and Shawn Posted: 22 Apr 2011 07:00 AM PDT
Friday Wrap show with Greg and Shawn TODAY at 12:30pm - Reserve your seat now |
| Posted: 21 Apr 2011 08:40 PM PDT
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| Traders Course Lesson 16 Rebroadcast April 21 2011 Posted: 21 Apr 2011 02:30 PM PDT
Forex Traders Course with Greg and Shawn TODAY at 4pm- This is PART II of Lesson 16 |
| Another 5.6 quake in the same region as the earlier one Posted: 21 Apr 2011 09:36 AM PDT ..according to news sources. |
| The Midday Forex Call for April 21st is available for viewing Posted: 21 Apr 2011 09:34 AM PDT |
| Posted: 21 Apr 2011 08:00 AM PDT
The USDCHF found its limit to the downside (40 year lows for the pair) and started a rebound. The price has moved higher and on the hourly chart above targets the 0.8846 level and the 0.8867 level. ON the 5 minute chart, the 100 bar MA at 0.8820 and the 38.2% of the recent move to the downside is being tested currently. A break above this level would be another positive for the pair. A failure and the downside bias remains. Key test now.
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| EURUSD correction lower stalls Posted: 21 Apr 2011 07:52 AM PDT
The EURUSD’s correction lower was triggered on the break of the trendline earlier today. The 100 bar MA, the 200 bar MA, the channel trendlines were the guides. Although action was choppy, the bearish clues dominated mostly. Now watch the channel. Watch the 200 bar MA on the topside (green line in the chart above). However, remember tomorrow will be a holiday for a lot of the market. This could lead to some squaring as London and Europe go home. It could also mean anything for tomorrows (lack of liquidity can lead to volatility or quiet markets). |
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