Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- $EURUSD holds the 1.5062 support level, but remains below resistance at 1.5088. Watch closely
- Dec 2 2009 Forex Market Update
- $GBPUSD continues its move higher after correcting earlier in the trading day.
- Next FXDD Online training THURSDAY DEC 03 2009 4PM NYT
- REBROADCAST of Dec 01 2009 FXDD Online Training
- ADP fall by -169K for the month of November.
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.2.2009
- USDJPY moved up on the back of worries about intervention
- Challenger Job Cuts come in at -72.3% versus a year ago
- Pre Non Farm Payroll Employment reports due at 7:30 and 8:15 AM today
- Eur/Gbp finds some support at 200 hour M/A
- Eurozone PPI
- UK Construction PMI
- Sterling higher after Dale’s comments and going into Construction PMI
- BOE’s Spencer Dale’s speech in Essex
| $EURUSD holds the 1.5062 support level, but remains below resistance at 1.5088. Watch closely Posted: 02 Dec 2009 06:42 AM PST
Today we will focus our attention on the 1.5060/1.5062 area for the EURUSD. That level was the old 2009 high for the EURUSD until last weeks move higher.
On the hourly chart it represented a floor from yesterday’s trading and was a point the market bounced off of twice today on two separate hourly bars (including the current hour).
On the 5 minute chart, however, the bias is to the downside as the price is below both the 100 and 200 bar MAs. In addition since the moving averages have converged with the price,, this suggests a move away from the level (100 and 200 bar MA are at 1.5088). If the market can remain below these moving averages, the support at 1.5062 level may eventually give way. Look for sellers against the 1.5088 level, with a stops 10-15 pips higher. A break of 1.5062 should lead to further selling pressure with a target of 1.5039/43 level and below that level 1.5007 . |
| Dec 2 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 02 Dec 2009 06:24 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. Next Training Dec 3 2009 4pm |
| $GBPUSD continues its move higher after correcting earlier in the trading day. Posted: 02 Dec 2009 05:34 AM PST
After an initial decline that saw the GBPUSD move back below the 1.6600 level, the price bottomed near the 38.2% retracment of the move up from Monday’s lows (1.6537) and the 200 hour MA at the 1.6554 level (low reached 1.6549). When these level held, the price started it’s move back higher.
The move back above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and the 1.6600 level and then successful test of the level, gave the bulls the go ahead to probe the upside further. The price has peaked at the 1.6694 level which corresponds to a high spike from October 23rd. The real key upside target remains at the 1.6744 level which was a high spike in June, September and halted the rise last week (see 1, 2, 3 in the chart below).
On the downside, the high yesterday reached 1.6645. The low correction off the initial move higher today came down to 1.6652. Look for buyers against this level on a correction. Also, below is the 38.2% retracement of the days move higher at the 1.6638 level and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.6631 level and moving higher.
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| Next FXDD Online training THURSDAY DEC 03 2009 4PM NYT Posted: 02 Dec 2009 05:30 AM PST |
| REBROADCAST of Dec 01 2009 FXDD Online Training Posted: 02 Dec 2009 05:23 AM PST
Dec 01 2009 FXDD Online Training -Click Here |
| ADP fall by -169K for the month of November. Posted: 02 Dec 2009 05:20 AM PST
This was a touch worse than expectations of -150K but higher than last months -203K fall. This suggests a stabilizing.improving employment situation still, but net hiring is still not overtaking the net firings on a month on month basis. This was the lowest level since July 2008. |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.2.2009 Posted: 02 Dec 2009 05:18 AM PST Good Morning: The overnight markets were fairly quiet. USD continues to stay weak, and GBP marched higher. Asian equity markets were higher, Europe is mixed, and US Futures are looking at a higher opening this morning. The futures are only slightly higher today. Gold set another record overnight, and the metal markets were higher in general. Oil:$77.87 Gold:$1211.10 Today’s data: HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
| USDJPY moved up on the back of worries about intervention Posted: 02 Dec 2009 05:10 AM PST Although not said intervention was on the way, Japan Prime Minister Hatoyama said in the Nikkei newspaper that the currency’s strength can’t be left as it is. This helped push the USDJPY to the upside after volatile day yesterday which saw the currency pair move sharply higher, but then decline for most of the London and NY sessions.
From a technical basis the price moved above the 100 hour MA toward the end of the NY day and was able to use that MA as a springboard to the upside. The price topped out - so far at least - at the 87.37 level. The 200 hour MA remains a target on the upside at the 87.51 level. This also the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the November 23rd consolidation high. Look for profit taking sellers against this level.
Looking at the shorter term 5 minute chart, price dipped below the 100 bar MA currently at the 87.18 level but has inched back above the level. The move suggests the move higher is ready for a pause. However, I would look for buyers to reemerge against the 38.2% retracement of the move up from yesterday’s low That level comes in at 87.04. The 200 bar moving average (greenline) is at the 86.99 level and moving higher. SO this level should also provide downside support for the pair. |
| Challenger Job Cuts come in at -72.3% versus a year ago Posted: 02 Dec 2009 04:35 AM PST
The YoY change came in at -72.3%. A total of 50,349 jobs cut announcements were made last month. This compared with a total of 181K last November. Versus last month the announced job cuts fell from 55,679. This represents a 9.5% MoM decline. The total jobs cut number was the lowest announced job cuts since December 2007. The number is congruent with the NFP estimate which is expected to show an improvement from last month. The employment situation is stabilizing for those with jobs. However, those who may still be out of work or underemployed, the pain may still be lingering (i.e. 10.2% unemployment rate and 16-17% underemployment rate) |
| Pre Non Farm Payroll Employment reports due at 7:30 and 8:15 AM today Posted: 02 Dec 2009 04:25 AM PST
The Challenger Job Cuts for the month of November will be released at 7:30 this morning. The release shows the change YoY of announced job cuts. There is no estimate. However, looking at the Total Job Cuts (workers) from last November, this months data will show a sizeable decline. This is because last November, the announced job cuts was a large 181,671. In comparison, last month the announced job cuts came in at 55,679. So on a percentage basis, the decline should be quite large. The market knows this, but do not be surprised. If the announced job cuts equal last months job cuts the decline YoY will be -70%
The more important job announcement is likely to be the ADP Employment Report as this is designed to track the Non Farm Payroll report to be released on Friday. The expectation is for a decline of -150K vs a decline of -203K last month. The NFP is expected to show a decline of -123K. This number does not include the public sector (govt) job changes but is a good barometer for the NFP figures nevertheless (if anything gov’t should subtract some jobs but the amount is fairly small).
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| Eur/Gbp finds some support at 200 hour M/A Posted: 02 Dec 2009 02:40 AM PST Eur/Gbp has traded down to its 200 hour M/A (.9056) and has found some support there for now. In the last 3 hours of trding the pair has given up just under 50 points. If Eur/Gbp can hold look for a partial retracement of this move to the 38.2% fibo at .9085. A break below could bring the pair down to .9020 area, with light support at .9043 along the way.
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| Posted: 02 Dec 2009 02:28 AM PST Eurozone PPI m/m came in at 0.2%, stronger than the 0.1% expected and the -0.4% prior reading. Eur/Usd relatively unchanged trading either side of 1.5100. |
| Posted: 02 Dec 2009 01:39 AM PST UK Construction PMI came in at 47.0, a shade above the 46.9 estimate and 46.2 prior reading. No major market reaction as Gbp/Usd is up about 10 points to 1.6635 and Eur/Gbp down 5 points to .9075. |
| Sterling higher after Dale’s comments and going into Construction PMI Posted: 02 Dec 2009 01:21 AM PST Gbp/Usd has run up to 1.6640, just under the U.S. high of 1.6647 after positive commentary from BOE’s Dale and going into Construction PMI at 4:30 EST. If the pair can break above the U.S. high its next stop should be 1.6700. On the downside light support at 1.6585-90 with a better base below at 1.6553, its 100 hour M/A.
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| BOE’s Spencer Dale’s speech in Essex Posted: 02 Dec 2009 12:40 AM PST BOE’s Chief Economist Spencer Dale’s speech in Essex contained the following; -Concerned on inflation when growth above trend -Current BOE policy increases risk to asset prices -Sees asset price “risk that we need to be alert to” -Need for substantial deficit reduction is clear -Signs are economy is stabilizing into period of growth -UK inflation to increase sharply in near term -Encouraging signs of BOE policy success -Pound’s substantial drop helps support recovery -Extent of UK job losses has been less than feared Overall more positive than negative sentiment going forward according to Dale. Gbp has gained some strength on heels of comments. Gbp/Usd has jumped above 1.6600, Gbp/Jpy up to 144.85, and Eur/Gbp off a tad as Euro strength muted the impact of Gbp on the pair which currently trades at .9095. |
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