Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- GBPUSD moves higher. Tests target resistance at 1.5920 area.
- Chicago PMI is much better than expectations. Highest level since January 2006.
- A Tale of Two Currencies. EURUSD heading down+GBPUSD going up= EURGBP leading the way
- December 30th 2009 FXDD Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
- GBPUSD moves back above 1.5881 level
- USDJPY reaches 92.32 target level. Now what?
- GBPUSD watching 1.5881 level this morning. Key level yesterday, today and in October 2009
- December 30th 2009 FXDD Pre-Market Commentary is available for viewing
- KOF Economic Barometer
- Eurozone M3 Money Supply & Private Loans
- 12-30 Economic Calendar
- Japan’s Manufacturing PMI (USD/JPY)
- December 29th 2009 Evening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
- USDCHF getting ready to make another break? Watch the 1.0389 level.
- GBPUSD tests resistance on retracement
| GBPUSD moves higher. Tests target resistance at 1.5920 area. Posted: 30 Dec 2009 05:53 AM PST
Despite the better than expected data from the Chicago PMI, the GBPUSD has moved higher (HMMMM). The price is testing the resistance target area at the 1.5920/31 level which was the low price from last week (See prior post). The level is also near the 38.2% retracement of the move down from yesterdays high price (at 1.5922). I would expect profit taking selling against this level, however, the action is a bit confusing given the stronger data today. The EURGBP seems to remain in control of the pair as it has moved down to test the support at 0.8975. If the support in the EURGBP holds, the GBPUSD may find a top. If not, look for continued move higher as the EURGBP wags the dogs tail today. |
| Chicago PMI is much better than expectations. Highest level since January 2006. Posted: 30 Dec 2009 05:42 AM PST
Chicago PMI much better than expectations rising to 60.0 from 56.1 last month. This is much better than expectations and the highest reading since January 2006. The Employment component rose above the 50 level which is an indication that employment is growing. The stronger reading should lead to a higher dollar overall as the Fed tightening becomes closer to a certainty at some point. Prices paid 54.9 vs 52.6 last month |
| A Tale of Two Currencies. EURUSD heading down+GBPUSD going up= EURGBP leading the way Posted: 30 Dec 2009 05:36 AM PST
As the market prepares for the Chicago PMI data - expectation of 55. 1 - the EURUSD is going one way, while the GBPUSD is going the other. The EURUSD is testing the 1.4303 support level. Meanwhile the GBPUSD is back above the 1.5900 level after holding support at the 1.5872-86 area. This action is manifesting itself in liquidation in the EURGBP which has fallen sharply over the last few hours. Looking at the chart the pair has fallen back below the 100 hour MA at the 0.8996 level and looks toward the 38.2% retracement support at the 0.8977 level. The price was also able to break through trendline suppport. The move in the EURGBP makes trading the dollar a bit tricky against the EURUSD and the GBPUSD as they are moving in seemingly opposite directions against the US dollar. So be aware that it is more a cross trade, then a dollar trade today. SO keep an eye on the EURGBP for some of the trading clues. |
| December 30th 2009 FXDD Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 30 Dec 2009 05:11 AM PST |
| GBPUSD moves back above 1.5881 level Posted: 30 Dec 2009 04:32 AM PST
As per prior post (click here), the 1.5881 level is a key level today. The price just pushed back above the level and we should now expect to see buyers on dips back toward the level. In the process the price moved above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.5877 level currently. This also should provide support for the pair. The high for the day reached 1.5915 and this along with the other resistance at 1.5820/31 are the next target levels as long as the price is able to hold the 1.5977 price area. We will see what upside momentum can be established. |
| USDJPY reaches 92.32 target level. Now what? Posted: 30 Dec 2009 04:17 AM PST
The USDJPY has reached the 92.32 target outlined in our video commentary and written commentary over the last 24 hours (see prior post from yesterday by clicking here). I would expect some profit taking selling against the level as the move higher is still a grind. However, the upside momentum should remain in tact as long as the 91.76/86 level can hold below. The longer term upside target is the 93.12 level which is the 50% retracement of the move down from the April 6th high price of 101.43 to the November low price of 84.80. There should also be some selling above against the 92.52 level which was the high price on September 21st.
On the downside continue to watch the 91.86 and 91.72 levels for support. The 91.86 level was the high price over the last week or so of trading and 91.72 was a low price from July 2009 (old “remembered price” - see daily chart above). If the price can stay above these levels, we should be ok. |
| GBPUSD watching 1.5881 level this morning. Key level yesterday, today and in October 2009 Posted: 30 Dec 2009 03:52 AM PST
The GBPUSD found support against the 1.5881 level earlier this today until breaking it’s way to the low for the day at the 1.5832 level. The level will be a level to watch today. If you listened to our commentary yesterday and followed our posts on http://forex.fxdd.com we talked about this level as being a past “remembered” price the last time the GBPUSD was down at these levels in October 2009. Looking at the chart below of the period from October 2009 before the surge higher, the 1.5881 level was first a spike high price, then became a springboard level for the surge higher. Often the market will look back in time and find these levels and make them important again in the present. That is what it has done over the last 18 or so trading hours. Yesterday the price moved through this level as liquidation selling was taking place. However, the next hour, the price correction moved back above this level and the price became a floor level again. Finally, the level gave way to the downside during the London session today.
For today, the level becomes a key price level to watch. I would look for the market to use it as resistance this morning. If the price can remain below the level, we should see a further probe back toward the low support (support at 1.5824/32). A move back above 1.5881, should lead to further upside corrective momentum, with a test of the 1.5920/31 area an upside target. |
| December 30th 2009 FXDD Pre-Market Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 30 Dec 2009 03:17 AM PST |
| Posted: 30 Dec 2009 02:08 AM PST KOF Economic Barometer came in at 1.68, weaker than the 1.73 forecasted, but stronger than the prior reading of 1.62. No market reaction to this figure, which indicates a slower economic recovery for Switzerland. The lack of market reaction is to be attributed to sluggish trading as we are in the midst of a holiday week. Usd/Chf currently trades at 1.0368 and Eur/Chf at 1.4880. |
| Eurozone M3 Money Supply & Private Loans Posted: 29 Dec 2009 11:59 PM PST Eurozone M3 Money Supply y/y came in at -0.2%, weaker than the 0.4% forecasted and prior reading of 0.3%. Private Loans y/y came in at -0.7%, stronger than the -0.8% anticipated. Mixed numbers for the Euro as the market reaction would indicate. Eur/Usd currently trading at 1.4345. |
| Posted: 29 Dec 2009 07:47 PM PST
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| Japan’s Manufacturing PMI (USD/JPY) Posted: 29 Dec 2009 02:18 PM PST Japan’s Nomura Manufacturing PMI indicator rose in December to 53.8 from 52.3 the prior month continuing the expansionary readings. The market had no reaction to this release as the year-end lull continues. The USD/JPY pair has continued to trade higher into the calendar year-end as some profit taking on long Yen positions and yield increases in the US have made USD funding less attractive. The channel we’ve been observing has continued to hold as the appreciation continues in an orderly fashion.
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| December 29th 2009 Evening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 29 Dec 2009 12:20 PM PST |
| USDCHF getting ready to make another break? Watch the 1.0389 level. Posted: 29 Dec 2009 10:42 AM PST
The 1.0389 level is the 100 hour MA. The pair has moved up to test this moving average but has so far found sellers against the level. A break back above the level would increase the bullish bias for the pair and should lead to further upside potential. Today, the price continued it’s corrective move lower and, in the process, fell below the 100 day moving average at the 1.0320 level. The price moved above this key moving average on December 15th on it’s way to the December high price of 1.0507. However, the last 4 days has seen a correction back down that saw the pair correct 38.2% of the last move higher at the 1.0280 level (low today reached 1.0279).
The healthy bounce off this Fibonacci retracement level and subsequent move back above the 100 day moving average is a bullish move. As a result, the move above the 100 hour moving average would solidify the bullish bias for the pair and should lead to further gains higher. Look for momentum higher on a break. |
| GBPUSD tests resistance on retracement Posted: 29 Dec 2009 09:26 AM PST
The GBPUSD is back up testing the weeks low price at 1.5931 and the low from last week at 1.5920. If this level can hold, we should see a wander back down as the pairs move lower was a harsh move down. Look for support at the 1.5881 level. |
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