Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Dec 22 2009 Forex Market Update
• EUR/USD hitting a hard floor after US GDP release
• US GDP for third quarter at 2.2%, weaker than consensus
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.22.2009
• GBP/USD testing major 200 day moving average
• FXDD Online Training Tuesday Dec 22 2009 4pm
• UK GDP/Current Account
• BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
• Swiss Trade Balance
• GfK German Consumer Climate
• Australian Conference Board Leading Index
• New Zealand Current Account Balance
• Dec 21 2009 Forex Evening Report
• NZD/USD hovers along support near 0.7055
• GBPUSD moves to test Friday’s lows. A break looks toward 200 day MA at 1.6000

Dec 22 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 22 Dec 2009 05:40 AM PST New Video Pending

EUR/USD hitting a hard floor after US GDP release Posted: 22 Dec 2009 04:45 AM PST The EUR/USD which has been in consolidation since Dec 18 2009, hit a hard floor this morning near the 1.4280 area (38.2% Fibo level) with a low of 1.4261, seen last Friday. This may act as a turning point for the pair after weaker than expected Q3 US GDP temporarily put the brakes on a move to the down side. Above the current price, the 100MA (blue line) is currently at 1.4369 and becomes the key short term, upside target. Looking at the Daily chart the EUR/USD has been trading between the 100MA and 200MA goal posts for some time. The 1.4280 area is the long term 38.2% Fibo level from April 20, 2009 to the high at 1.5141. Below this the 200MA comes into focus at 1.4192. On the top side, we look to the 100 hour moving average for the next level of resistance at 1.4369 (1 hour chart). Above this and a long way off is the 100 day MA at 1.4651 (daily chart)

US GDP for third quarter at 2.2%, weaker than consensus Posted: 22 Dec 2009 04:29 AM PST US GDP for third quarter at 2.2%, weaker than consensus estimate of 2.8%.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.22.2009 Posted: 22 Dec 2009 04:17 AM PST Good Morning: The FX markets continue to speculate on any interest rate increase from the FED.  Some investors are now wondering if the FED will raise rates as quickly as originally thought.  With the economy still not on firm ground, the FED should not be in any hurry to raise interest rates until they see a true increase in economic activity.  JPY was weak in overnight trading, falling against the 16 most widely traded pairs, as the BOJ reiterated that it will keep interest rates near zero. Asian equity markets were mixed, Europe is higher, and US Futures are pointing to a higher opening this morning. Oil:$73.21                                             Gold:$1088.00   TODAY’S RELEASES TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 08:30AM GDP QoQ (Annualized)  3 QT 2.80% 2.80% 08:30AM PERSONAL CONSUMPTION  3 Q T 2.90% 2.90% 08:30AM GDP PRICE INDEX  3 Q T 0.50% 0.50% 08:30AM CORE PCE QoQ  3 Q T 1.30% 1.30% 10:00AM RICHMOND FED MANUFACT.INDEX  DEC  4.O    1.O 10:00AM HOUSE PRICE INDEX MoM  OCT 0.20% 0.00% 10:00AM EXISTING HOME SALES  NOV     6.25M      6.1OM 10:00AM EXISITING HOME SALES MoM  NOV 2.50% 10.10% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

GBP/USD testing major 200 day moving average Posted: 22 Dec 2009 04:04 AM PST The GBP/USD is currently testing the 200 day moving average at 1.6009. A break below this level may see the pair move to test the 38.2% fibonacci level at 1.5689. On the top side if the pair is unable to break this level, the 100 day moving average is currently at 1.6381, above that 1.6460 is the next level of resistance. Traders will likely see numerous attempts to break the 200 day MA and will want to see a clear break before looking to enter. US releases at 8:30am NYT will also have an effect on the direction of the Pound, especially if the current US dollar sentiment from overnight continues. If support proves too strong and the pair changes direction, short term resistance will be seem at 38.2% Fibo of the days range at 1.6023 and at 1.6038 (50% level) As with any test of the major moving average, there is typically increased volitality and action around key levels. Short term support is seen at 1.5975 and is currently acting as the floor for the day.

FXDD Online Training Tuesday Dec 22 2009 4pm Posted: 22 Dec 2009 03:45 AM PST Shawn Powell will host the next FXDD Online training on Tuesday Dec 22nd 2009 at 4pm New York Time Register Here The training topic will be on Trading philosophy and the correct mindset for trading. Be sure to register in advance. There will also be ample time to ask questions.

UK GDP/Current Account Posted: 22 Dec 2009 12:29 AM PST The GBP appreciated across the board on the release of a much better than expected Current Account balance for Q3, which came in at -4.7B versus the forecast of -8.2B and prior release of -11.4B. Also released was GBP both m/m and y/y, which came in worse than expected. Here are the details: GDP (QoQ) - Survey: -0.1%   Actual: -0.2%   Prior: -0.3% GDP (YoY) - Survey: -4.9%   Actual: -5.1%   Prior: -5.1%

BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks Posted: 21 Dec 2009 10:33 PM PST Speaking in Tokyo today at the Securities Analysts Association of Japan, Gov Shirakawa made the following comments: Global financial instability would hurt Japan’s banks. Short-term prices shouldn’t set policy. Easy policy can fuel bubbles if they are prolonged. Ensuring financial stability is a goal for the BOJ.

Swiss Trade Balance Posted: 21 Dec 2009 10:15 PM PST Switzerland’s trade balance for November came in at 2.14B; lower than its prior release of 2.46B and forecast of 2.79B. Additionally, here are the rest of the details: Exports real SA (MoM) - Actual: 1.6%   Prior: 0.1% Imports real SA (MoM) - Actual: 0.6%   Prior: 0.6%

GfK German Consumer Climate Posted: 21 Dec 2009 09:59 PM PST The market was unaffected by the slightly worse than expected release of the German GfK Consumer Climate number which came in at 3.3 versus its forecast of 3.6 and prior reading of 3.7.  Currently, the EUR trades at 1.4296 against the USD.

Australian Conference Board Leading Index Posted: 21 Dec 2009 02:03 PM PST The Aussie Conference Board Leading Index was released worse for October than September, coming in at -0.3% (+0.3% prior) and evoking a limited reaction in what continues to be a thin market in Asia.

New Zealand Current Account Balance Posted: 21 Dec 2009 12:44 PM PST The New Zealand Current Account Balance and its ratio to GDP came out better than expected, giving the Kiwi a light bid after taking a hit to start the week. The readings were as follows: Current Account Balance  -Survey:-2.03B   Actual:-1.413B   Prior:.124B Account Deficit - GDP Ratio - Survey:-3.5%   Actual:-3.1%   Prior:-5.9% NZD/USD is approaching what has acted as a support level above the 70 cent handle. A break could bring the mid-summer highs into play.

Dec 21 2009 Forex Evening Report Posted: 21 Dec 2009 12:40 PM PST Click here to view the embedded video. Live online training tomorrow at 4pm with Shawn Powell

NZD/USD hovers along support near 0.7055 Posted: 21 Dec 2009 10:36 AM PST Heading into afternoon trading in the US session, the NZD/USD is trading along the 0.7050 level. The pair is inside the 100MA (0.7135) & 200MA (0.6614) goalposts; below the 100MA (0.7135). As such the bias is to the downside with the next level of longer term support coming into play near the 0.6960 area. A closer look at the NZD/USD pair, reveals that it has been in consolidation since Friday Dec 18th 2009. A failure to break below the 0.7050 level could signal a bounce, sending the pair back to test the 100MA (blue line) at 0.7135. Above that the 200MA is seen at 0.7188 on the 1 hour timeframe.

GBPUSD moves to test Friday’s lows. A break looks toward 200 day MA at 1.6000 Posted: 21 Dec 2009 09:31 AM PST The GBPUSD has continued it’s track to the downside and looks to test the low for the day and the low from Friday at 1.6054 and 1.6051 respectively.  A break of the level continues to confirm the bearishness of the pair since breaking through the 100 day MA and the 1.6158 level which was a key low for the pair for most of the summer months.  On the downside the 200 day moving average remains the target.  That level comes in at the 1.6000 level today.  I would expect profit taking buyers against the level. However, longer term, a move down to 1.5689 can not be ruled out as long as the price remains below the 1.6158 level and the intermediate and shorter term technicals remain bearish.  This level is the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the  January 2009 low of 1.3502.

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