Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Dec 24 2009 Forex Market Update
• U.S. Durable Goods orders rise 0.2% for November
• US initial jobless claims fall 28k last week to 452k
• USD/CAD nearing support at 1.0415 after failed move higher
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.24.2009
• Shirakawa Speaks in Tokyo
• 12-24 Economic Calendar
• Japan’s Q4 Manufacturing Index (USD/JPY)
• Dec 23 2009 Forex Evening Report
• USD/CAD fails to break above the 100 day MA
• Dec 23 2009 Forex Midday Report
• GBP/USD bouncing off of support at 1.5920 area
• USD/JPY encountering heavy resistance at the 91.75 level
• US New Home Sales down sharply for November 2009

Dec 24 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 24 Dec 2009 05:30 AM PST New Video Pending - Click here to watch the video

U.S. Durable Goods orders rise 0.2% for November Posted: 24 Dec 2009 04:37 AM PST U.S. Durable Goods orders rise 2% for November excluding transportation, almost double against the forecasts of 1.1%. Adding in the transportation sector took the number down to 0.2% due to slumping personal aircraft sales, this was below estimates of 0.5%. Durable goods orders in October fell 0.6 percent, after a revised 2.2 percent rebound in September.

US initial jobless claims fall 28k last week to 452k Posted: 24 Dec 2009 04:31 AM PST The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits last week declined to the lowest level since September 2008. US initial jobless claims fall 28k last week to 452k. The prior number was 480k in the previous week. The four-week average continues to come down, now at 465,250 for a 2.7k decrease. Continuing claims also continue to come down, 127k lower in the December 12th 2009 week to 5.076 million.

USD/CAD nearing support at 1.0415 after failed move higher Posted: 24 Dec 2009 04:28 AM PST USD/CAD nearing support at 1.0415 after failed move higher on December 18th 2009. The pair bounced off of the 100 day MA (blue line) at 1.0677. The USD/CAD has been in a short term trend to the downside since then and is now approaching the 1.0415 level. Below this, lows for 2009 come into focus at the 1.0205 area. On the top side resistance will be found at the 1.0490 level, above that at 1.0530, 1.0677, and long term at 200 day MA (green line) at 1.1143. Traders will start to use caution as we go into the Christmas holidays today so we may encounter increased volatility.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.24.2009 Posted: 24 Dec 2009 04:03 AM PST Good Morning: The USD lost ground overnight as speculation that the FED will keep their stimulus measures in place to act as a  driving force to revive the US economy. World equity markets rose. Expectations that the global economic recovery is gaining traction has investors looking to continue the world wide equity rally. Oil, Gold and commodities in general all rose.  Copper is this years metals leader with a 132% increase in 2009. Oil:$76.35                                  Gold:$1102.20   TODAY’S RELEASES TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30A.M. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS NOV. 0.50% -0.60% 8:30A.M. DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION NOV. 1.10% -1.30% 8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS DEC.19 470K 480K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS DEC.12 5170K 5186K HAVE A GREAT DAY-GOOD LUCK &  HAVE A MERRY CHRISTMAS

Shirakawa Speaks in Tokyo Posted: 24 Dec 2009 01:11 AM PST In speech given at a Keidanren meeting in Tokyo, BOJ governor Shirakawa made the following statements: The global economy has much to overcome before recovering. Global economy has improved since the spring. Japan’s economy is picking up. The momentum for a self sustained recovery is weak. Funding conditions for large firms is improving. Comapnies still cautious about funding. Pace of Japan’s recoery may slow early next year. He doesn’t expect the recovery to be cut short. pace of price declines will gradually slow down. Must boost demand to stem price declines. The economic recovery is driven by policy stimulus. He is ready to act promptly, decisively when needed. BOJ price view will help stabilize markets.

12-24 Economic Calendar Posted: 23 Dec 2009 07:31 PM PST

Japan’s Q4 Manufacturing Index (USD/JPY) Posted: 23 Dec 2009 03:08 PM PST The Japanese BSI Q4 Manufacturing readings came in worse quarter over quarter, however the market has had no reaction ahead of the Christmas holiday as the markets are lacking participants. The readings were as follows: BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) - Actual:-1.9%   Prior:0.3% BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) - Actual:13.2%   Prior:15.5% The USD/JPY pair has been grinding higher since the lows made in late November below the 85 handle, not seen since the summer of 1995. The move has been orderly and could have some correlation with the calendar year-end and some profit taking. Another catalyst has been speculation over the last few months of the BOJ’s intervention when the pair was at the lows, although the rhetoric from the BOJ has not corroborated that speculation.

Dec 23 2009 Forex Evening Report Posted: 23 Dec 2009 12:01 PM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

USD/CAD fails to break above the 100 day MA Posted: 23 Dec 2009 10:25 AM PST The USD/CAD has failed to break above the 100 day moving average (1.0680), and has moved lower off of weaker US data this morning. The pair may move to test support at 1.0415, this level was the floor in November 2009 and acted as a both a ceiling and a floor in July and August of 2008. Institutional shorts may be looking to push the pair back into the long term down term trend and a test of 2009 lows may follow if the 1.0415 level is broken. Lows for the year come in at 1.0205 made in October of 2009. On the top side well above the 100MA (1.0680) is the 200 MA at 1.1143, but this is 700 pips away from the current price and may not be a factor at this time. We are also going into Holiday trading into the end of this week and traders may be looking to square up before then.

Dec 23 2009 Forex Midday Report Posted: 23 Dec 2009 09:31 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

GBP/USD bouncing off of support at 1.5920 area Posted: 23 Dec 2009 06:48 AM PST The GBP/USD bounced off of support at 1.5920 and was unable to move lower this morning. Similar to the Yen, the reversal may have been triggered by the US data at 10am. The mid trend is bearish and trendline resistance is just above the current price at 1.5995. There are two directions that the pair can go, first to break above the trendline and head for a test of the 100 MA at 1.6076 and the 200MA above that at 1.6173. If the pair fails to break above the trendline, a break will have to occur through the current support at 1.5920 area. Below this level is major long term support areas at 1.5689.

USD/JPY encountering heavy resistance at the 91.75 level Posted: 23 Dec 2009 06:16 AM PST The USD/JPY has hit a hard ceiling at the 91.75 area. The pair has been above both the 100MA and 200MA since Dec 18th 2009. The pair put the brakes on and failed to break above this area, possibly spurred on by weaker US homes sales data at 10am. Look for a possible test of the 100 MA at 90.82 if the current sentiment continues. Below that is the 200MA at 90.04

US New Home Sales down sharply for November 2009 Posted: 23 Dec 2009 06:01 AM PST US New homes sales for November are down sharply from the estimate of 440k, to 355k actual. Supply at the current sales rate fell to 6.7 months, compared to September’s 7.4 months and compared with 11.1 months a year ago.

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