Thursday, December 17, 2009

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

USDCAD moves above 100 day MA but is back down testing the key level

Posted: 17 Dec 2009 06:57 AM PST

7The

USDCAD moved above the 100 day moving average for the first times since April 23rd.  The break led to a momentum move to the upside which took the price up to the high for the day at the 1.0745.  Since that time the price has corrected lower as profit taking has entered for the pair and the dollar in general.  The dip has taken the pair back down to the key moving average level against the 1.0685 level.    The first test is underway.

6

Look for buyers against the level with stops on a move below the moving average.  If the level holds a move above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at 1.0702 (blue line in the 5 minute chart above) would confirm a successful test and should lead to a resumption of the move higher.

If the price breaks below, however, the market may be disappointed in not being able to extend the upside move today.  Watch the level carefully today.  A close above should be bullish for the pair from a longer term perspective and lead to continued upside momentum.

GBPUSD bounces off the lows. 1.6158 is key resistance today

Posted: 17 Dec 2009 06:40 AM PST

5

We have been using the 1.6158 leveal as key support level for the GBPUSD.  The sharp move down today, broke through that level on its way to the low for the day at 1.6078. 

4

Now with the market correcting higher, the price is looking to test that level once again.  Look for resistance against the level. If the price should break above, however, I would expect some additional profit taking as the market has come a long way today.  Additional topside resistance comes in at the 1.6205 level.

EURUSD moves down hard overnight. Greece weighs.

Posted: 17 Dec 2009 05:30 AM PST

The S&P downgrade of Greece yesterday is weighing on the EURUSD today.  Weaker data out of the UK (retail sales fall -0.3%) and perhaps a little dollar bullishness on the back of at least another step toward stimulus ending is also pressuring the pair today.

2

From a technical perspective, the price decline has been consistent and orderly.   The moves have tracked along the 5 minute trendline, consolidating for a period in the London session, then continued it’s downward momentum.  The move further solidifies the longer term bearish sentiment for the pair as it enters the July/August 2009 consolidation period and moves closer to the longer term support which comes in at the 200 day MA currently at the  1.4165 level.  The 38.2% retracement of the 2009 trend move higher comes in at the 1.4117. These two levels are longer term support targets as long as the shorter term technicals continue to show a bearish bias.

1

On the topside today, the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.4378 level currently. This is the topside resistance for the pair. As long as the price remains below this level, the bias remains to the downside for the pair. 

3

On the downside, the last time the market was at this area in September 2009, the price consolidated in a range from 1.4281 to 1.4329, before breaking up and moving sharply higher.  The above chart shows the period from August/early September when the price consolidated in a non trend market before transitioning into a trend market.  There is additional support at 1.4254 below.  These areas were support/resistance levels during the consolidation period.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.17.2009

Posted: 17 Dec 2009 05:08 AM PST

Goobob-slade-forex-trading-4-150x200d Morning:

The USD soared overnight after the FOMC announced no change in interest rates, and are considering scaling back on the stimulus programs.  The USD also benefited from the bad news from Greece.  The markets are getting concerned about the enormous national debt that many countries have.  Countries like the US  increased their debt to put various stimulus measures in place.  Not only is Greece a problem, but the markets will be looking at Spain and the UK for a possible downgrade.

World equity markets fell, and US futures are pointing to a lower opening later this morning.
Oil and metals were also lower.

Oil:$71.96                              Gold:$1120.20

 

TIME FOR  EST PRIOR
8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 12-Dec 465K 474K
8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS 5-Dec 5180K 5157K
10:00A.M. LEADING INDICATORS NOV. 0.70% 0.30%
10:00A.M. PHILADELPHIA FED. DEC. 16.O 16.7O

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Initial Claims at 8:30 AM. Philly Fed and Leading Indicators at 10:00 AM

Posted: 17 Dec 2009 05:06 AM PST

The US Initial Claims are due out at 8:30 AM this morning. The market is looking for the claims to fall back down to 466 K from 474K last week.  

Later at 10:00 AM the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for December will be released.  This is another regional index.  On Tuesday, the Empire Manufacturing came out much weaker than expectations.  For this index, the expectation is for a small decline to 16.2 from 16.7 last month.

Finally also at 1000 AM, the Conference Board Leading Index is expected to show another gain of 0.8% vs 0.3% last month.  This would be the 8th consecutive gain for the pair.

UK CBI Realized Sales

Posted: 17 Dec 2009 03:06 AM PST

UK CBI Realized Sales came in at 13, weaker than the 14 expected and inline with prior reading.

Sterling has sold off dramatically since the 4:30 EST release of poor retail sales figures and so the pound’s reaction to this slightly weak number is muted in comparison.

Gbp/Usd trades at 1.6110, off over 100 points since 4:30 EST but relatively unchanged in current trading.

UK Retail Sales worse than expectations

Posted: 17 Dec 2009 01:39 AM PST

UK Retail Sales m/m came in at -0.3%, weaker than the 0.5% expected.

Y/y came in at 3.1%, weaker than the 3.7% expected.

Not encouraging news for the UK or the GBP. Eur/Gbp ascended above .8900 and Gbp/Usd down to 1.6145 on the news.

Currently Gbp/Usd trades at 1.6165 and Eur/Gbp at .8894.

Eur/Usd begins retracement

Posted: 16 Dec 2009 11:18 PM PST

Eur/Usd seemingly has begun retracing move down from 1.4590 to earlier session low of 1.4368. The first line of resistance, if the pair continues to plod higher, is 1.4453 (38.2% Fibo).

To the downside 1.4388 is short term support.

vincent_fx00024

12-17 Economic Calendar

Posted: 16 Dec 2009 08:15 PM PST

region_forex_00013

USD on the Move

Posted: 16 Dec 2009 06:21 PM PST

The EUR/USD has made new short-term lows during a quiet Asian session as the holiday season is in full effect. The pair has moved off its lows ~ 1.4450 area where we see a top was made the last summer. The next support level could develop at the 200 day moving average around the 1.42 handle. The dollar is generally bid across the board as some could be squaring up year long gains against the USD.

eurusd3

FED Keeps Rate at 0.25%

Posted: 16 Dec 2009 11:39 AM PST

The Federal Reserve has kept the FED Funds rate at 0.25%. The FOMC also commented that they will continue to keep rates low for an extended period of time causing the EUR to initially move higher and than push to new lows against the USD after further reading of the statement. Additionally, the FOMC released the following statements:

  • The vote was unanimous.
  • The slow down in the labor market  “is abating”
  • TALF expiration dates are unchanged.
  • “Substantial” slack to dampen inflation pressure.
  • Most liquidity facilities to expire Fed. 1.
  • Economy is likely to “remain weak for a time”, but has “continued to pick up”.
  • Financial markets are “more supportive” of economic growth.
  • Rates will remain “exceptionally low” for an “extended period”.
  • The housing sector has shown signs of improvement over recent months.
  • Businesses are still cutting back, though at a slower pace; reluctant to add payrolls.

BOC Governor Carney Speaks…..

Posted: 16 Dec 2009 09:53 AM PST

In a speech being made to the Empire Club of Canada, the Bank of Canada’s governor Carney stated that Canadians must prepare for higher interest rates.

Dec 16th 2009 Midday Forex Report

Posted: 16 Dec 2009 09:01 AM PST

USDCHF moves lower with weaker dollar bias. 100 day MA key level to watch today

Posted: 16 Dec 2009 07:58 AM PST

gregmike-05982

The USDCHF, like the GBPUSD is coming back down toward the important 100 day MA prior to the FOMC announcement.  The 100 day MA was broken yesterday with the first close above the level since April 27th.  However, the dollar selling today has brought the key level back into focus.

For today the 100 day MA comes in at the 1.0343 level.  The low for the day has so far come in at the 1.0354 level.  A move below the level after the FOMC will once again give a negative bias for the USDCHF. If the price moves higher, it would keep in focus a further move higher for the dollar.   Be aware of the key level through the announcement today.

GBPUSD key 100 day MA approaches as the FOMC meeting is awaited.

Posted: 16 Dec 2009 07:52 AM PST

gregmike-05981

The key level to watch through the FOMC meeting today is the 100 day MA.  The better employment data and nervousness about the FOMC statement has the dollar sellers in the market today and has led to a stronger GBPUSD. The move has pushed the GBPUSD back toward the key moving average which currently comes in at the 1.6409 level.  The high for the day has reached 1.6391 so far.

This will be a key level before and after the FOMC announcement.  Above the line is bullish, below the line is bearish.   Although technicals are important, it is the fundamental announcement which will dictate the technicals this afternoon.  Nevertheless, being aware of the level is important for directional clues after the announcement.
Posted by at

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)