Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• USDJPY moves between the “Goal Posts”. Bias up above 88.00.
• Dec 10th 2009 Forex Market Update
• GBPUSD neutral as it struggles with direction. Looking for a break
• Choppy trading continues today. EURUSD remains in a narrow range.
• Intial Claims worse that expectations. Trade Deficit improves
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.10.2009
• US Trade Balance due at 8:30 with US Initial Claims
• Bank of England keeps the rate unchanged
• BoE leaves rate and asset purchase target unchanged
• Eur/Gbp below 100 hour M/A
• Chancellor Darling on the wires
• Swiss Libor Rate left unchanged at 0.25%
• BoE expected not to change interest rates or Asset Purchase Program
• French Industrial Production & Final Non-Farm Payrolls worse than expected
• German Wholesale Price Index

USDJPY moves between the “Goal Posts”. Bias up above 88.00. Posted: 10 Dec 2009 06:53 AM PST The “Goal Posts” are defined by the 100 and 200 bars on our charts (blue line is the 100 bar MA , green line is the 200 bar MA).  When the market moves below or below the 100 bar moving average (blue line), continues through the 200 bar MA (green line), but returns back in between the two moving averages, it signals that the momentum on the break of the 200 bar is not there.   When this happens and the price moves back between the 100 and 200 bar MA (moves between the Goal Posts), we look for the market to go back and test the 100 bar MA.  In the hourly USDJPY chart above this has happened.  The price moved below the 100 hour MA, went through the 200 hour but has not been able to maintain the negative bias.  The price has moved back above the 200 hour MA this morning at the 88.00 level.  This gives a positive bias for the pair with a stop on a move back below the green line (200 hour MA at the 88.00 level). On the topside, the targets become the 88.48 area where the market has been bumping against ove the last few days and then the 100 hour MA at the  88.82 level.   Look for buyers on dips.

Dec 10th 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 10 Dec 2009 06:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. FREE FOREX TRAINING ONLINE TODAY - Thursday Dec 10th 2009 4pm New York Time Register Here

GBPUSD neutral as it struggles with direction. Looking for a break Posted: 10 Dec 2009 06:27 AM PST The GBPUSD is trading near the midpoint of the two day range and also near the 100 and 200 bar MA (1.6382 currently) on the 5 minute chart as it struggles with direction.   The market has made it through the interest rate announcement and Trade and Initial Claims data and has come off a bit, but perhaps it is the US stock action which will provide the motivation to move away from the consolidative range. Bias will be defined by the price being above or below the 100 bar MA on the above chart. Confirmation of the direction move will come on the breaking of the trendlines formed on the hourly chart (see below). Those levels come in at the 1.6228 on the downside and 1.6340 on the topside. Also of importance on the topside is the 100 hour MA. This moving average comes in at the 1.6360 level (and moving down). It will be an important resistance level on the upside for the pair.  The longer a pair non-trends the closer the market is to a trend type move. Watch the moving averagea for clues to direction and look for the interim targets along the way to confirm the direction.

Choppy trading continues today. EURUSD remains in a narrow range. Posted: 10 Dec 2009 05:45 AM PST The EURUSD remains within the high low range established yesterday of 1.4668 and 1.4781.  The inside range today is 1.4693 and 1.4759.  Looking at the the 5 minute chart the market has been moving above and below the two key moving averages today at a regular rate.  This is a continuation of the action we saw yesterday and suggests the market is consolidating as it ponders the next move.  Currently, the price is above the 100 and 200 bar moving averages which come in at the 1.4722 and 1.4728 levels respectively.  The positive is the price has held the 100 bar MA since 5:15 NYT .  This is positive.  A stop wold be if the price dips back below the 1.4722 level. With the continued non-trend, the 100 hour MA has had the time to move down toward the price.  The current 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.4798 level.  A break of 1.4756 on the topside should target a test of this moving average.  The 1.4756 level is a key level today as it was a low on Dec 7th and has contained the top today on two separate occassions.

Intial Claims worse that expectations. Trade Deficit improves Posted: 10 Dec 2009 05:37 AM PST The Initial Claims rose to 474K vs 455K expectations. This is a step back in the improvement seen over the near term.  The good news is the Continuing Claims fell by a greater than expected amount to 5157K fom 5460K last week and expectations for a fall to 5450K.  This is the lowest level since February 2009. The US Trade Deficit improved with the headline deficit rising to -32.9B vs a revised -35.7 billion last month. The inflation adjusted deficit also improved from -41.490B to -38.001 billion .  The better trade data is a plus for GDP for last quarter and this new quarter.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.10.2009 Posted: 10 Dec 2009 05:23 AM PST Good Morning: The BOE left interest rates unchanged, this decision was highly expected by market participants. JPY faltered overnight as speculation that some global central banks are considering removing some stimulus measures that have been in place to combat the global economic slump. Aussie and Kiwi were stronger overnight  as their economies are showing strong signs of recovery. Asian equity markets were mixed, and European equity markets are higher at this time.  US Futures are also looking at a positive opening this morning. Oil:$71.02                                 Gold:$11.23.40 Today’s data: Trade Bal:                          exp: -$36.9b              prior: -$36.5B Jobless claims:               exp: 455K                    prior: 457K HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Trade Balance due at 8:30 with US Initial Claims Posted: 10 Dec 2009 04:41 AM PST The US Trade Balance for the month of October will be released at 8:30 AM.  The expectation is for the headline figure to be close to unchanged versus last month.  The expectation is for the deficit to worsen slightly to -36.8 billion.  The inflation adjusted trade balance will also be released. This is the figure which is used in the GDP report and last month it came in at -41.472 billion which was a larger deficit than expected.  It was the highest deficit since January 2009 and also contributed to the lowering of the GDP for the 3rd quarter.  A larger deficit has the effect of subtracting from GDP growth.   Imports last month grew last month to 168.43 billion from 158.15 the month prior.  Exports also grew but at a smaller amount. They rose to 131.96 billion from 128.30 billion.  This is positive for overall economic health as it reflects higher demand in the US and abroad, but the mix with more imports versus exports is not positive for the GDP growth. Also of importance this morning is the Initial Claims for the current week. The expectation is for little change this week (455K vs 457K last week).  However, the trend is improving and with the better than expected Employment Report released last week, the market is anxious to maintain the gains achieved over the last few months. The Continuing Claims are expected to show a decline to 5450k from 5465K last week.

Bank of England keeps the rate unchanged Posted: 10 Dec 2009 04:17 AM PST As expected the Bank of England kept rates unchanged at 0.5%. They also kept the 200 billion pound asset purchase program unchanged.

BoE leaves rate and asset purchase target unchanged Posted: 10 Dec 2009 04:07 AM PST In a 7:00 EST announcement the BoE leaves policy unchanged. MPC left rates at 0.5% and asset purchase program at 200B. Gbp/Usd trading relatively unchanged at 1.6320. Commentary should follow.

Eur/Gbp below 100 hour M/A Posted: 10 Dec 2009 01:51 AM PST Eur/Gbp is trading below its 100 hour M/A of .9043. There are market rumors stating some Eur/Gbp selling going into the fixing. If the pair remains below .9043 a sell off down to .9005 is possible where some trendline support is present. A break above should bring the pair to .9064 where the 200 hour M/A and 50% Fibo lie.

Chancellor Darling on the wires Posted: 10 Dec 2009 01:27 AM PST Chancellor Alistair Darling had this to say today in London; - absolutely determined to halve deficit in 4 years - deficit cutting will start when recovery is cemented - future spending on jobless benefits is unclear - signs on UK labor market encouraging - it is right to cut deficit in an orderly way - retain UK status as financial hub - wants to change culture of high bonuses, but not against bonuses as matter of principle - now is not the time to pay high bonuses - he wants UK to be seen as destination of choice

Swiss Libor Rate left unchanged at 0.25% Posted: 10 Dec 2009 12:37 AM PST The Swiss Libor Rate has been left unchanged at 0.25% as were market expectations. SNB leaves target range unchanged 0.0%-0.75%. They see Swiss economy growth up to 1% in 2010, although recovery seems fragile. Swiss Central Bank to stop bond purchases. SNB will act decisively to counter Franc gains against Euro. Usd/Chf approached 1.0300, has currently pared back to 1.0290. Eur/Chf  up 20 points to new highs of 1.5130.

BoE expected not to change interest rates or Asset Purchase Program Posted: 10 Dec 2009 12:24 AM PST The Bank of England is expected to announce no change in policy when it reveals the outcome of its most recent meeting at 7:00 EST. The BoE seems inclined to hold interest rates at 0.5% and leave its £200B asset purchase program unchanged. Last month the bank added £25B to its quantitative easing program, which involves printing money to buy assets from firms to stimulate economy. The session has seen some jittery trading involving the GBP as GBP/USD has essentially whipped up and down between 1.6215 and 1.6290.

French Industrial Production & Final Non-Farm Payrolls worse than expected Posted: 10 Dec 2009 12:09 AM PST French Industrial Production m/m came in at -0.8%, weaker than the 0.6% expectation. Non-Farm Payrolls q/q came in at -0.6%, weaker than the 0.0% expected and 0.0% prior reading. Eur/Usd sold off down to 1.4692 on bad figures but has since rebounded to the 1.4715-20 level.

German Wholesale Price Index Posted: 09 Dec 2009 11:03 PM PST German Wholesale Price Index m/m came in at 0.7%, stronger than the 0.3% expected and the prior reading of -0.4%. Y/Y came in at -3.2%, stronger than the prior reading of -7.0%. Positive number for the Euro as Eur/Usd has gained 10 points thus far to 1.4730.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610