Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Moody’s puts Greece’s sovereign A-Rating on credit watch
• ECBs Trichet on the newswires
• Dec 7 2009 Forex Market Update
• $AUDUSD watching the 100 bar MA at the 0.9106 level currently
• GBPUSD falls through the 100 day MA today. Consolidates after the fall.
• Canada Building Permits rise sharply. USDCAD moves below support. 1.0536 support eyed
• EURUSD stays pressured so far today
• Canada Building Permits due at 8:30 AM. Bernanke to speak at 12:00 NYT.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.7.2009
• ECB Quaden on the newswires
• German Factory Orders
• Eur/Usd trying to comeback
• USD buying across the board; European follow through from Friday’s Non-Farms
• 12-7 Economic Calendar

Moody’s puts Greece’s sovereign A-Rating on credit watch Posted: 07 Dec 2009 07:11 AM PST This is not much of a surprise but is now the second negative move by a credit agency today with Portugal S&P rating lowered earlier today.   The EURUSD is coming under some pressure off the announcement but remains contained in a range this morning.  The price did briefly move above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart but has moved back below the moving average on the news. The current 100 bar MA comes in at 1.4813.

ECBs Trichet on the newswires Posted: 07 Dec 2009 06:45 AM PST Says that Growth is not yeet strong enough to reverse Unemployment.  He also comments that the financial system needs to be more resisilient.  The comments are not making much an effect on the EURUSD.  In other EURO news, Portugal’s rating was lowered by S&P to negative from stable this morning.

Dec 7 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 07 Dec 2009 06:30 AM PST New Video Pending

$AUDUSD watching the 100 bar MA at the 0.9106 level currently Posted: 07 Dec 2009 06:28 AM PST   The AUDUSD has been testing the 100 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart at the 0.9106 level currently over the last hour or so.  The price has been able to hold the level and with Gold prices down over $23 today, this may continue to pressure this currency pair.  If the price is able to move above this resistance level, however, the price  is likely to move toward the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (green line above) at the 0.9128 level. Test time for the AUDUSD.   On the downside the 0.9075 level and 0.9051 is support with the low from November 27th at 0.8946 level another target level for the pair.  If the comments from Bernanke at noon today are more hawkish, the pressure on the AUSUSD should continue as some of the carry trade demand is continued to be unwound.

GBPUSD falls through the 100 day MA today. Consolidates after the fall. Posted: 07 Dec 2009 05:48 AM PST The GBPUSD moved below the 100 day MA which came in today at the 1.6419 level today and moved immediately lower.  The price momentum pushed the price down to a low of 1.6312.  Off the daily chart the next support comes inat the November lows of 1.6260 and 1.6270 levels. From the longer term perspective as long as the price remains below the 100 day MA the price should continue to remain depressed. Shorter term the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart look for upside resistance at the 1.6389 level.  This is the high correction price of f the intial decline, is the 38.2% retracement of the days range and is where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found (and moving lower). Like the EURUSD, the GBPUSD is likely to consolidate this morning.  The low at 1.6312 will likely find buyers on dips on the topside the 1.6389 level and 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart should contain the gains. The move below the 100 day MA should lead to an overall downward pressure. The GBPUSD has been in a consolidative range since June.

Canada Building Permits rise sharply. USDCAD moves below support. 1.0536 support eyed Posted: 07 Dec 2009 05:36 AM PST The Canadian Building Permits surged by 18.0% for the month, much better than expected.  THe Residential rose by 3.8% while Non-Residential rose by large 42.3%. The report has sent the USDCAD lower. The price fell below the 100 and 200 bar MA at the 1.0584 and 1.0571 levels respectively.  These levels should now provide upside resistance for the pair (see chart aboe).  The next downside target is the 1.0536 which is where the 200 hour MA is found.  The low for the day also came in at the 1.0531 level.  Look for profit taking support against the level.

EURUSD stays pressured so far today Posted: 07 Dec 2009 05:00 AM PST The EURUSD remains pressured today. The price has moved to a low of 1.4756 for the day, down from the low and close on Friday of 1.4821 and 1.4845 respectively.  The price overnight was able to makes its way  through the 1.4800-30 congestion area off the daily chart above, but is starting the NY day back below the area.  The high correction off the low in the London morning session was able to reacht he 1.4830 level but the price used the level as a selling point and came back off.A move back above the 1.4800 level is likely to lead to a further drift higher for the pair.    Looking at the 5 minute chart, the price remains below the 100 bar MA which is currently at the 1.4837 level and moving lower.  This moving average and up to 1.4830 will be resistance today.   On the downside, the low for the day at 1.4756,  and 1.4739 and 1.4702 will be support levels for the pair.  These are all support levels from late October/early November when the price was last at this area (see chart below).  However, I expect the market will likely range trade until Bernake is scheduled to speak at 12 Noon. For the downside pressure to remain it is likely the Fed Chairman will need to signal a change in Fed sentiment given the better than expected Unemployment report.

Canada Building Permits due at 8:30 AM. Bernanke to speak at 12:00 NYT. Posted: 07 Dec 2009 04:38 AM PST The Canadian Building Permits for the month of October will be released at 8:30 AM. The expectation is for a gain of 1.0% vs a gain of 1.6% last month.   This would be be the 3rd consecutive monthly increase for the release. Later at noon NYT, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at the Economic Club of Washington. His comments, post the stronger than expected US Employment Report, will be of extreme interest to the market.   The market will be looking for any shift in Fed’s stance that the Fed will remain on hold for “an extended period of time” .

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.7.2009 Posted: 07 Dec 2009 04:34 AM PST Good Morning: The USD rally continued into the overnight session, as investors consider if global economies are strong enough to digest higher interest rates that some central banks are implementing (or contemplating implementing). The change in USD sentiment was quick after Friday’s job data was much stronger than expected.  We went from a weak dollar to strong dollar in a matter of hours.  We will see if the rally has found legs-or if it will be short lived. The JPY also rose overnight on interest rate concerns. Asian equity markets were mixed, and European markets are lower.  US Futures are also lower at this time. Gold fell as did copper, which lead to a drop in industrial metals.  Oil also fell to $74.56 in early NY trading. Oil$74.65                              Gold:$11.41.50 North America’s economic calender is fairly quiet  today-with Fed Chairman Bernanke speaking today. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

ECB Quaden on the newswires Posted: 07 Dec 2009 04:20 AM PST The ECBs Quaden is on the newswires and says the ECB interest rates are appropriate and sees no need to start a tightening cycle and the ECB is not ready to signal a rate rise.   He is more concerned about the relation of the dollar to the Asian currencies. This is a theme that the ECB has with regard to the value of the Chinese Yuan to the dollar since the Yuan is tied to the dollar and most feel is undervalued. Finally he comments that inflaiton remains contained.

German Factory Orders Posted: 07 Dec 2009 03:04 AM PST German Factory Orders m/m came in at -2.1%, weaker than the 0.6% expected. Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.4707, relatively unchanged from pre-number.

Eur/Usd trying to comeback Posted: 07 Dec 2009 01:56 AM PST Eur/Usd has made its way back to 1.4800, after trading down to 1.4755. The first level of resistance should come in at 1.4821, an area of  hourly lows from Dec. 4th. After that the 38.2% Fibo comes in at 1.4879, although it seems the pair would have its work cut out for it to test up there. If the pair does not breach 1.4821 look for another move to downside, probably back to session lows.

USD buying across the board; European follow through from Friday’s Non-Farms Posted: 07 Dec 2009 01:45 AM PST The Usd strengthened against majors as the European session got into swing. Eur/Usd traded down to 1.4756, Gbp/Usd to 1.6329, Usd/Chf up to 1.0243 and Gold down to 1,134.85. The move seemed to be a follow through of Friday’s U.S. trading session which saw Usd appreciation in light of strong Non-Farm jobs data. The retracement process has begun as the Usd is giving back some gains in very choppy trading. How far of a retracement is still not clear.

12-7 Economic Calendar Posted: 06 Dec 2009 08:59 PM PST

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