Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- EURUSD comes under some pressure in NY today but finds support against the close from yesterday
- Dec 16th 2009 Forex Market Update
- CPI and other data comes in as per expectations. Canada Manufacturing Sales better.
- GBPUSD benefits from better employment data
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.16.2009
- US CPI, Current Account and Housing and Building Permits due at 8:30 AM. Prelude to the FOMC decision later today.
- US Mortgage Applications rise by 0.3% for the week
- Eurozone CPI
- UK Jobs Data
- Eurozone PMI
- German PMI
- French Flash PMI
- 12-16 Economic Calendar
- Aussie Deputy Governor Speaks
- Australian GDP Weaker
| EURUSD comes under some pressure in NY today but finds support against the close from yesterday Posted: 16 Dec 2009 06:43 AM PST
There is some market talk about Greece and their ability to raise capital post the credit decline last week. That has depressed the EURUSD a bit after the overnight test of the low from December 11th at the 1.4586 level (see chart above).
The market seems to be consolidating as it waits for the FOMC decision this afternoon. The price moved back down at the 100 and 200 bar MAs at the 1.4551 and 1.4544 levels respectively but found support against those levels and the closing level from yesterday at the 1.4537 level. I would expect the consolidative random trading to continue today with buyers on dips and sellers above. A break above the 1.4586 level may lead to some additional buying interest with 1.4603/07 the next targets. On the downside, the market close at 1.4537 yesterday is providing support in NY. A dip below should solicit additional selling interest. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dec 16th 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 16 Dec 2009 06:30 AM PST | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CPI and other data comes in as per expectations. Canada Manufacturing Sales better. Posted: 16 Dec 2009 05:41 AM PST CPI came in at 0.4% - as expected. Ex Food and Energy was unchanged which is slightly better than the +0.1% expectations. The Housing Starts and Building Permits came in at 574K and 584K respectively. The Building Permits were slightly better than expectations of 570K. A Permit is not a start and can be delayed. So not much can be implied by the small gain. In Canada Manufacturing Sales grew by a greater than expected 2% for the month versus expectations of 1.0% gain (prior month revised lower to 1.0% from 1.4%) . Sales have now grown 4 of the last 5 months. The USDCAD fell after the release but remains above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages (blue and green lines in the chart below). Those levels come in at the 1.0575 level and 1.0567 level respectively. As long as the price can remain above these levels the bias remains somewhat supportive.
However, also take note that the USDCAD has not been able to extend past the 100 day moving average which comes in at 1.0687 level today. This level is ultimately the level that needs to be broken on the topside to spur on increased buying interest in the pair.
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| GBPUSD benefits from better employment data Posted: 16 Dec 2009 05:35 AM PST The better than expected Unemployment data out of the UK boosted the GBPUSD out of the 5 day range trade.
From a technical basis, the price moved through the upper trendline that has been containing the market for the last 5 trading days, retraced to the trendline, then took off to the topside. The move higher was telegraphed by the non-trending aspect of the market over the last week of trading. The 100 hour moving average flattened, the market range narrowed with lower highs and higher lows. The market was just ready to move. When the better data emerged, focus returned to GBP buying and that is exactly what happened. Now the price is above the 200 hour MA at the 1.6322 level (green line in the chart above). This is where support will be found today. The price does still remain below the key 100 day moving average at the 1.6409 level which is a key longer term price to keep in mind.
Other resistance on the topside comes in at the 1.6378 level. This is where the price stalled on the upside (high reached 1.6372) and is where the 38.2% of the move down from the December high to the December low comes in (see chart below). Look for sellers against this level today. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.16.2009 Posted: 16 Dec 2009 05:14 AM PST
The dollar gave up some profits overnight on speculation that the FED will keep interest rates at near zero, and they may indicate that the economic recovery is gaining traction. Speculation that the FED will keep interest rates at record lows spurred Euopean equity markets, and US Futures are also pointing to a higher opening. Asian markets were mixed. In other financial news, ADIA (Abu Dhabi Investment Authority) is attempting to end an agreement to purchase $7.5 billion in Citigroup stock. Citigroup has been looking to sell stock so they can repay $20 Bil in bailout funds to the US Treasury. All eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision at 2:30 PM (EST) this afternoon.
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 16 Dec 2009 05:06 AM PST
The US CPI for the month of November will be released at 8:30. The expectation is for a rise of 0.4% for the headline and +0.1% for the ex food and energy. The PPI came out much stronger than expected yesterday which may lean toward a higher bias with the CPI data this morning.
On a year on year basis, the effects of -1.7% decline last November will drop out of the equation. As a result, the YoY measure will rise to +1.8% from -0.2%.. The Ex Food and Energy component has been more steady. This is expected to show a small rise to 1.8% fom 1.7% last month.
Also at 8:30 the US Housing Starts and Building Permits are to be released. The expectations are for the Housing Starts for November to rise to 574K from 529K last month while Building Permits are also expected to rise to 570K from 551K. Both these numbers remain depressed as the supply of New Homes continue to be sopped up from the market. The good news is the supply of New Homes on the market has been declining while the rate of New Home Sales has been increasing. This should eventually spur on confidence by builders. However, that has not materialized yet as evidenced by the NAHB Builders Survey yesterday which showed a decline yesterday to 16 from 17. The Current Account Balance for the 3rd quarter is expected to show further deterioration to -107.5 billion from -98.8 billion in the 2nd quarter. Of course later this afternoon the FOMC decision will be announced at 2;15 PM. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged although the market will be keen to see if the Fed changes any of the wording to reflect the better economic data of late. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| US Mortgage Applications rise by 0.3% for the week Posted: 16 Dec 2009 04:42 AM PST The Purchase Index fell by -0.1% vs a gains of 4.0%, 4.1% and 9.6% for the last 3 weeks. The Refinace Index rose by 0.9%. This is down from a 11.1% gain last week. The 30 year mortgage rate rose slightly to 4.92% from 4.89%. This is up from the low of 4.78% reached 2 weeks ago. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 16 Dec 2009 02:04 AM PST Eurozone CPI m/m came in at 0.1%, weaker than the 0.2% expected. Eurozone CPI y/y came in at 0.5%, weaker than the 0.6% expected. Eurzone Core CPI y/y came in at 1.0%, weaker than the 1.2% expected. Weaker than expected figures and Eur/Usd still gets bid up to 1.4562 thus far. We may be staring at an oversold market. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 16 Dec 2009 01:34 AM PST UK Claimant Count Rate came in at 5.0%, better than the 5.1% expected. Jobless Claims Change came in at -6,300, better than the 12,500 increase expected. This is first drop in claims since February 2008. ILO Unemployment Rate came in at 7.9% as expected. Average Earnings Index 3m/y came in at 1.5%, stronger than the 1.2% expected. Positive figures for Gbp. Gbp/Usd got a lift of 20 points to 1.6290. Eur/Gbp has traded down to .8927. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 16 Dec 2009 01:02 AM PST Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.6, stronger than the 51.5 expected. Eurozone Flash Services PMI came in at 53.7, stronger than the 53.3 expected. Eur/Usd up another 10 points on positive news as the pair trades at 1.4550. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 16 Dec 2009 12:44 AM PST German Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.1, stronger than the 52.6 expected. German Flash Services PMI came in at 53.1, stronger than the 51.9 expected. These positive PMI numbers effectively erased the negativity of weak numbers out of France. Eur/Usd traded up to 1.4540 and has since leveled off to 1.4530. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 16 Dec 2009 12:14 AM PST French Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.4, weaker than the 54.7 expected. French Flash Services PMI came in at 59.3, weaker than the 60.1 expected. Eur/Usd sold off to new session low of 1.4510 upon release of weaker than expected figures. The pair has currently rebounded to 1.4528, not far off from pre-number level. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 15 Dec 2009 09:43 PM PST
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| Posted: 15 Dec 2009 06:05 PM PST The Australian Deputy Governor Battallino had the following comments in a speech in Sydney, sending the AUD lower across the board:
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| Posted: 15 Dec 2009 04:40 PM PST The Australian GDP lost its early session bid on a weaker than expected GDP release, but has recovered from its initial move lower as the Euro gained against the USD. The release was as follows: GDP (QoQ) - Survey:0.4% Actual:0.2% Prior:0.6% GDP (YoY) - Survey:0.7% Actual:0.5% Prior:0.6% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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