Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Michigan Consumer Confidence comes in at 73.4
- $EURUSD approaches key 100 day MA support at 1.4638 level
- Dec 11 2009 Forex Market Update
- GBPUSD moves lower on stronger data. Key support remains in tact.
- USDJPY moves higher on the data. Move from 88.00 support continues.
- Retail Sales better than expectations. Dollar gets a touch stronger.
- $EURUSD above 100 hour MA. Support at 1.4756 a key level to watch
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.11.2009
- Retail Sales due at 8:30 AM. Michigan Confidence due at 10:00
- FXDD Online Training Rebroadcast Dec 10th 2009
- UK Producer Price Index
- Sterling below 100 hour M/A
- Japan Household Confidence
- 12-11 Economic Calendar
- Chinese Industrial Production/ Retail Sales
| Michigan Consumer Confidence comes in at 73.4 Posted: 11 Dec 2009 06:55 AM PST Stronger than expectation of 68.8. This is just below the September high of 73.5. More good news for today |
| $EURUSD approaches key 100 day MA support at 1.4638 level Posted: 11 Dec 2009 06:34 AM PST
The EURUSD is approaching the 100 day MA support at the 1.4638 level. The market should find profit taking buyers against the level (at least initially). Further support at 1.4611 where the 38.2% retracement is found. The EURUSD has been above the 100 day MA since April 2009. A break is signficant in that respect. Topside resistance comes in now against 1.4668 and the trendline at the 1.4696 level.
If the 1.4668 level can hold the corrective move, it should continue the pressure on the pair. Key moment for the EURUSD. |
| Dec 11 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 11 Dec 2009 06:30 AM PST |
| GBPUSD moves lower on stronger data. Key support remains in tact. Posted: 11 Dec 2009 06:30 AM PST
The GBPUSD got a boost from the rating agencies earlier today which reaffirmed the credit rating of the UK debt. This gave the GBPUSD a boost early on and the price even moved above the 100 hour MA. However, no momentum could be established and the price drifted lower. The stronger retail sales shifted focus on the dollar and the pair has since moved below trendline support. On the downside there is support at the 1.6214 level which is the low price from yesterday. Below that is key support at the 1.6158-66 level where the low from yesterday and the lows from August/September come in.
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| USDJPY moves higher on the data. Move from 88.00 support continues. Posted: 11 Dec 2009 05:53 AM PST
The better numbers today have led to a rise in the USDJPY as the market interprets stronger data = closer tightening by the Fed and higher dollar (at least for now). The price has moved above the 50% midpoint of the corrective move lower after breaking above the 100 hour MA earlier in the day and holding the support. The next target is the 89.45 level for the pair where the 61.8% retracement is found. The trend move to the upside today has taken the price from a low of 88.19 to the high at 89.27. The consolidated period had a time where the price dipped below the 100 bar MA as the market awaited the 8:30 numbers but gapped higher afterwards. On the downside watch support now at the 89.01 level (trendline in the chart below). Below that is the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 88.86 level currently and moving higher. Staying above these levels keep the bias up for the USDJPY.
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| Retail Sales better than expectations. Dollar gets a touch stronger. Posted: 11 Dec 2009 05:33 AM PST The Retail Sales for the month of November rose higher than expected. The headline rose by 1.3% vs +0.6%. The ex autos rose by 1.2% vs +0.4% expectations. The Ex auto and gas was even higher than expected at +0.6 vs +0.2. The prior month was revised lower a bit but overall the data is encouraging.
The EURUSD has moved lower off the news on the back of stronger growth will lead to higher interest rates. Higher interest rates lead to a higher dollar. The price has moved back below the support level against the 1.4753 level and the old trendline. This puts the price back in the meat of the recent range and the bias has also reversed back to the downside. We will continue to watch the 100 hour MA as resistance today. |
| $EURUSD above 100 hour MA. Support at 1.4756 a key level to watch Posted: 11 Dec 2009 05:21 AM PST
The 100 hour MA comes in at 1.4753. The 1.4756 level has been a key level and ceiling over the last few days. Both will be instrumental in the EURUSD direction today. Stay above and a move to the next target at 1.4780 is likely. A break above this level should increase upside confidence. The market broke above trendline support earlier today which helped the bias to the upside. The market has been consolidating over the last few daya and the break did lead to a move to the upside (high 1.4776). The ability to maintain the price above the key levels is now key. The market should find support against the 1.4753 level. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at 1.4747. These levels need to hold to keep the bias up. Otherwise we are back in the meat of the range and this first break higher fails.
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| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.11.2009 Posted: 11 Dec 2009 05:11 AM PST
Demand for higher yielding assets caused the JPY to decline. Speculation that the global economy is showing signs of recovery is the main catalyst for investors seeking higher yielding assets. World equity markets rose along with commodity prices. Copper rose, leading the gains on the London Metal Exchange. Gold also increased as did crude oil. Today’s main focus will be Retail Sales data due out at 8:30 Am. Oil:$ 70.97 Gold:$1140.20 Today’s data: HAVE A GREAT DAY-GREAT WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK |
| Retail Sales due at 8:30 AM. Michigan Confidence due at 10:00 Posted: 11 Dec 2009 05:01 AM PST
US Retail Sales for the month of November will be released at 8:30 AM. The expectation is for a gain of +0.6% vs a gain of +1.4% last month. The ex Auto release is expected to show a gain of +0.4% vs +0.2% last month. The Ex Auto figure has been up for 3 straight months. A gain this month would be the longest string since July 2008. The consumer accounts for near 70% of US GDP.
Yesterday, the Fed announced that Net Household Wealth increased for the 2nd quarter in a row. This was after 8 quarters of declines. The gain in wealth is positive for consumer confidence and potentially spending. The question is was the decline too damaging. The decline from the top to bottom cut 26% of household wealth and given the leverage that consumers accumulated the decline was likely magnified. This is the rub and will be what determines the spending trends going forward. If the consumer is happy with the increased wealth, confident with employment, perhaps spending is increased. If the consumer is focuses on the overall decline in wealth still and looks at the gains as just a partial pay back or if the decline in wealth has done too much damage to the leveraged balance sheet of the consumer (ie. foreclosure is more of a worry), then the spending will remain depressed.
At 10:00 we will be getting a measure of confidence when the Univ of Michigan Preliminary Confidence estimate is released for the month of December. Last month the measure fell for the second consecutive month to 67.4. The high off the lows reached 73.5. The expectation this month is for a rise to 68.8. Confidence spurs spending. Keeping the confidence moving higher is paramount for a more firm economic foundation that adds new jobs and sustains growth.
Also due for release at 8:30 will be the US Import Price Index for November. This measure is expected to show a gain of 1.2% for the month on month and +2.9% YoY. Over the next few months this measure will show sharp gains YoY as the effects of sharply lower values from last year fall out of the equation. In November and December last year price on MoM basis fell by -7.4% and -16.9% largely on the back of plunging oil prices. This month the YoY is going from -5.7% to +2.9 largely reflecting the November 2008 effect. When-16.9% falls out next month, the YoY index will soar even higher. This inflation is partly influenced by the declining US dollar. A lower dollar increases import prices all things being equal. If the US is dependent on that good, that is bad. If their are domestic producers who can be a replacement supplier, it may not be so bad. It will be interesting to see if the market starts to pay more attention to the effects of import prices going forward as the true numbers (less effected by the soaring and plunging oil prices) start to filter through the numbers. |
| FXDD Online Training Rebroadcast Dec 10th 2009 Posted: 11 Dec 2009 04:29 AM PST
TO VIEW THE REBROADCAST OF LAST NIGHTS WEBINAR CLICK BELOW RE BROADCAST OF DEC 10TH SHOW HERE - CLICK TO WATCH Tuesday Dec 15th 2009 4pm New York Time Register Here All information is at http://forex.fxdd.com/webinars |
| Posted: 11 Dec 2009 01:36 AM PST UK Producer Price Index Input m/m came in at 0.1%, weaker than the 0.5% expected though prior reading of 2.6% was revised up to 2.9%. Y/y came in as expected at 4.0% and the prior reading of 0.1% was revised up to 0.4%. UK Producer Price Index Output m/m came in at 0.2%, weaker than the 0.3% expected though prior reading of 0.2% was revised up to 0.3%. Y/y came in at 2.9% inline with expectations with prior reading of 1.7% revised up to 1.9%. Relatively flat numbers out of the UK with upward revisions helping the story for the pound. Gbp/Usd remains 1.6330 through release. |
| Posted: 10 Dec 2009 11:29 PM PST Gbp/Usd is trading below its 100 hour M/A after several failed attempts to break above. Look for a run down to recent hourly lows of 1.6259 where the pair should find some support. A break below there should bring us down to 1.6200. If this apparent downward pressure reverses a move back up to 1.6360 is likely, the 38.2% Fibo.
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| Posted: 10 Dec 2009 09:17 PM PST Japan Household Confidence m/m came in at 39.5, weaker than the 40.6 expected and 40.5 prior reading. Usd/Jpy has made new highs since release of weak number, trading at 88.83. |
| Posted: 10 Dec 2009 09:15 PM PST
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| Chinese Industrial Production/ Retail Sales Posted: 10 Dec 2009 06:08 PM PST In general, there was a mixed bag of releases out of China tonight with a majority of them coming in better than forecasted. On the back of the better than expected releases, the JPY caught a slight bid across the board and the AUD showed a limited reaction. The details of the releases are as follow:
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Gobood Morning:
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