Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- USDCHF breaks above 100 day MA today. Support at 1.0384 currently.
- Dec 15 2009 Forex Market Update
- Industrial Production and Capacity Util. better than expected
- GBPUSD has consolidative support at the 1.6199 level
- Empire Manufacturing weak. Inflation from PPI rises more than expectation
- EURUSD comes under pressure as dollar strengthens
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.15.2009
- US PPI, Empire Manufacturing, TIC data and Indust Production out this NY morning
- ZEW Survey (Eurozone & German)
- UK Economic Data
- Usd/Cad possibly on its way up to yesterday’s high
- Swiss Industrial Production
- French CPI
- 12-15 Economic Calendar
| USDCHF breaks above 100 day MA today. Support at 1.0384 currently. Posted: 15 Dec 2009 06:52 AM PST
The USDCHF broke through the 100 day MA and is looking to close above the key moving average for the first time since the end of April 2009. The current 100 day MA comes in at the 1.0348 level and that level will remain as support for the pair today. As long as the price can remain above this level, longer term position traders should be inclined to have a bullish bias for the pair. Looking at the shorter term chart, the market non-trended for an extended period yesterday and today, with clues coming from the 100 and 200 bar moving averages converging with the price. When the three converge, it is often a clue the market is poised for a trend move in one direction of the other. Today, the market started to use the moving averages as support and also as a springboard to higher levels. The final straw for the bulls was breached when the price moved through the 100 day MA price at the 1.0348 level.
The price has consolidated at the highs and this has allowed the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart to catch up to the market. The current moving average comes in at the 1.0384 level (blue line in the chart above). Look for buyers against the level. Further support comes in at 1.0374. The price should not trade below the 1.0348 level which once again is the 100 day MA level.
On the topside the next target comes in at 1.0436 to 1.0452 levels. These are the highs from September/October period. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dec 15 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 15 Dec 2009 06:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. Online Training today with Greg Micahlowski and Shawn Powell at 4pm. Sign up on the commentary pages at http://forex.fxdd.com/webinars | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Industrial Production and Capacity Util. better than expected Posted: 15 Dec 2009 06:16 AM PST Ind Production up 0.8% vs +0.5% and Capacity Utilization rises to 71.3 from 70.6. This is the highest since Dec 2008. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GBPUSD has consolidative support at the 1.6199 level Posted: 15 Dec 2009 05:56 AM PST
The GBPUSD has been consolidating for 5 days now. The range was defined on December 9th with a high low range of 1.6166 and 1.6374. Since that time the high to low range has been compressed, the 100 hour MA has caught up with the market, and the high and low trendlines have been tested. Those trendlines currently come in at the 1.6293 level and the 1.6199 level (see chart above). The 100 hour MA is currently at the 1.6268 level. With the price below the 100 hour MA, the bias is down. A break of the trendline should lead to lower levels for the pair. Until then, however, look for the reactionary buyers who are becoming comfortable buying dips and selling strength. Eventually, that Pavlovian reaction will be broken and the market will look to trend once again. Be aware.
Looking at the shorter term intraday chart the 1.6214 level (lows from yesterday) should provide some support, along with the KEY 1.6199 level. On the topside the 38.2% of the days range comes in at the 1.6248 level. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at 1.6254 and coming down. This will also be eyed as resistance today. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Empire Manufacturing weak. Inflation from PPI rises more than expectation Posted: 15 Dec 2009 05:43 AM PST The PPI rise by a > than expected 1.85 vs +0.8% expectation. The talk in tobacco contributed to the gain with a MoM gain of 2.2%. Gasoline rose by 14.2% for the month. Ex food and energy the gains was +0.5% this was still higher than expectations. For the Empire Manfacturing data, the index plunged to 2.3 from Prices Paid 19.74 vs 10.53 last month | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD comes under pressure as dollar strengthens Posted: 15 Dec 2009 05:30 AM PST
The expectation the US economy will continue to improve has led to a lower EURUSD today. The pair has also moved back below the 100 day moving average at the 1.4645 level. On Friday the price closed below this important level. Yesterday the price close back above and today it looks to be making the break to the downside. It is thought that longer term position traders are influenced by moves through the 100 day MA. The price has been above the 100 day moving average since the end of April.
On the shorter term 5 minute chart, the price action suggested a move was in order. The market non-trended for the last few hours of trading yesterday and continued that non-trend action for the first 7 hours of trading today. The two moving averages converged and the range narrowed. The price dipped below the 100 day MA line at 1.4645 and after consolidating for a few more hours, the break to the downside ensued. On the downside there is support against the lows from Septembers corrections. Those levels come in at 1.4517/26. The market has found support against this level this morning (low 1.4525 so far) . Below that look for support against the low from October 2nd at 1.4480.
Longer term, if the market continues its belief the Fed is getting closer to tightening and if the data remains supportive, the target is the 200 day MA at the 1.4147 level currently. The 38.2% retracement of the move up from the low in February comes in at 1.4117.
On the topside today, resistance at the 1.4555 level and above that the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.4578 level. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.15.2009 Posted: 15 Dec 2009 05:20 AM PST
Speculation that improving US economic data may spur the FED to exit some stimulus measures that were put in place to combat the global recession helped boost the USD overnight. The Euro continues under pressure as news of another Austrian bank having problems surfaces. Also the issue of sovereign debt in Greece, along with concerns about Spain, Italy and Ireland also added to the Euros decline. World equity markets fell, and US Futures are pointing to a lower opening. Oil:$69.92 Gold:$1114.20
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| US PPI, Empire Manufacturing, TIC data and Indust Production out this NY morning Posted: 15 Dec 2009 04:51 AM PST
The US Producer Prices will be released at 8:30 this morning. The expectation is for the MoM to show a 0.8% gain vs last months gain of 0.3%. Ex the volatile food and energy, producer prices are expected to show a 0.2% gain versus a -0.6% decline indicating that most of the months gain is a result of higher energy costs.
On a YoY basis the effects of last years sharp fall in energy prices continue to come out of the number. As a result, the YoY is expected to show a +1.8% rate versus a -1.9% value last month. The ex food and energy is expected to rise to 0.9% vs +0.07% last month.
The first of the regional monthly manufacturing indices is out at 8:30 as well when the NY Empire State Manufacturing index is released. The expectation is for a modest gain to 24.00 from 23.51 last month. The high water mark off the bottom reached 34.57 in October. The market might be disappointed if the value remains toward the low end this morning, as it is intent on seeing economic improvement to justify the higher dollar of late.
Net Long Term TIC flows are due at 9:00 AM. This is a measure of flow of funds into or out of the US on balance In theory since the US runs a trade deficit, the flow of funds should be into the US to fund that deficit. In effect the US needs to sell securities to foreigners. In October the flow of funds totaled 40.7 billion. This month the expectation is for a inflow of 37.1 B. This is in line with current trade balance figures.
At 9:00 AM the monthly Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production numbers will be released. The Fed/Bernanke has commented on the excess capacity available in the economy as a reason why inflationary pressures will remain depressed. The expectation is Capacity Utilization will rise to 71.1% fro 70.7% in October. This would be the highest level since January 2009 but well below what is normal levels.
Industrial Production, released at the same time is expected to show a 0.5% MoM gain vs a gain of 0.1% in October. This would be the 5th straight increase in the series indicative of an improving manufacturing sector. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ZEW Survey (Eurozone & German) Posted: 15 Dec 2009 02:11 AM PST German ZEW Current Situation came in at -60.6, weaker than the -60.1 expected. German Economic Sentiment came in at 50.4, stronger than the 50.0 expected. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment came in at 48.0, weaker than the 50.0 expected. In a statement ZEW goes on to say we are still at bottom of recession and 2010 we will see recovery, mainly driven by exports, but no upswing. Banks must clean up their balance sheets. They also see no evidence of a credit crunch. Eur/Usd made fresh session lows of 1.4525 on the heels of these comments and the ZEW Institutes findings. The pair currently trades at 1.4537. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 15 Dec 2009 01:38 AM PST UK CPI y/y came in at 1.9%, slightly stronger than the 1.8% expected. UK CPI m/m came in at 0.3%, slightly stronger than the 0.2% expected. UK RPI y/y came in at 0.3%, slightly stronger than the 0.2% expected. UK RPI m/m came in at 0.3%, slightly stronger than the 0.2% expected UK Core CPI y/y came in at 1.9%, inline with forecasts and slightly stronger than the the prior reading of 1.8%. UK DCLG HPI y/y came in at -2.2%, stronger than the -2.3% expected. All numbers indicate a slightly better outlook for the Gbp, but it seems the strength of the Usd overrides these minimally better than expected figures. Gbp/Usd was at bottom of range upon release and is currently trading at 1.6250. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Usd/Cad possibly on its way up to yesterday’s high Posted: 15 Dec 2009 01:14 AM PST With high Usd demand evident thus far in the European session, Usd/Cad has effectively retraced more than half of the move from 1.0661 down to 1.0551. The pair seems to have found a solid base in way of its 200 hour M/A at 1.0554 and has found resistance at the 61.8% Fibo at 1.0619. This may be a temporary setback for the move back up to 1.0661 as the pullback thus far has been slight.
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| Posted: 15 Dec 2009 12:50 AM PST Swiss Industrial Production q/q came in at 3.4%, stronger than the -0.1% expected. The prior reading of 2.7% was revised up to 3.4%. Y/y came in at -6.7%, stronger than the -9.6% expected. The prior reading of -14.9% was revised up to -14.3%. No major market reaction to this news as Usd/Chf trades at 1.0385 and Eur/Chf at 1.5124. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 15 Dec 2009 12:42 AM PST French CPI m/m came in at 0.1%, weaker than the 0.3% expected. Y/y came in at 0.4%, weaker than the 0.5% expected but stronger than the -0.2% prior reading. This is the first rise for French Consumer Prices in seven months, mainly due to a lift from food and energy prices. Eur/Usd begun getting hit on this news and is currently trading at 1.4562. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 14 Dec 2009 09:03 PM PST
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