Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• $GBPUSD moves to test support at 1.6158 level
• December 31st 2009 Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• $USDCAD in between the “goal posts” as defined by the 100 and 200 hour moving averages
• $USDJPY surges higher off the 92.32 support but runs into double top resistance perhaps?
• Initial Jobless Claims comes in at 432K. Continuing Claims have fallen to 4982K
• Trading closes today at 2:00 PM NYT for FXDD
• US Weekly Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 AM
• GBPUSD rally continues today. Boosted by better data, continued covering. Resistance tested at 1.6232.
• $EURUSD boosted overnight and holding support. So watch support for trading clues.
• December 31st 2009 NY Opening Forex Commentary
• UK Nationwide HPI m/m
• 12-31 Economic Calendar
• December 30th 2009 Evening Forex Report is available for viewing
• $EURUSD has intraday support at 1.4327/35
• December 30th 2009 Midday Forex Commentary is available for viewing

$GBPUSD moves to test support at 1.6158 level Posted: 31 Dec 2009 05:39 AM PST The downside target of 1.6158 is approaching (see prior post).  This level corresponds with the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. It also is support off the daily chart going back to the August/September time period.  Look for some profit taking buying against the level.  A break would target 1.6114 level where the 200 bar MA on the same 5 minute chart is found. The market in general is trading in a technical fashion today with key levels tending to hold resistance and support.  The warning, however, is we are beginning to approach the end of the year where some last minute position squaring is likely to take place.   Be aware that this, along with less liquidity, can lead to some unusual moves.  So be aware. Be prepared.

December 31st 2009 Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 31 Dec 2009 05:24 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

$USDCAD in between the “goal posts” as defined by the 100 and 200 hour moving averages Posted: 31 Dec 2009 04:59 AM PST The USDCAD is sitting in between the 100 and 200 hour MAs.  We define this condition at FXDD as being in between the “goal posts” .    When this condition exists the market is thought to be in a period of transition as it decides if the next move is higher or lower.  Watch the price action.  Traders can buy dips against the 100 hour with selling below. Alternatively, they can sell against the higher 200 hour MA with buying on moves above.  Look for momentum on the breaks.  The current 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.0469.  The current 200 hour MA comes in at the 1.0531.

$USDJPY surges higher off the 92.32 support but runs into double top resistance perhaps? Posted: 31 Dec 2009 04:38 AM PST The USDJPY surged higher off the better Employment data this morning. Earlier the price held our support level at the 92.32 level where the 100 bar MA was also located.   The price is up testing the high from yesterday at the 92.76 level and this high provides a low risk trading opportunity for range trading traders.  Look for sellers with stops above. A break targets the 93.12 level (50% of the move down from the April high to the low). Another longer term upside target coming more into focus is the 200 day MA (green line in the daily chart below) at the 93.67 level).

Initial Jobless Claims comes in at 432K. Continuing Claims have fallen to 4982K Posted: 31 Dec 2009 04:25 AM PST Much better than expectations.  However, the holiday season can influence the numbers as offices close for the holiday and if the seasonal changes don’t account for it fully, it can be reversed going forward in the weeks ahead. Nevertheless, it is what it is, and the dollar is finding a little bid off the number.  The EURUSD is down testing the 200 bar MA support at the 1.4378. Next support at 1.4362 which was the floor from earlier today. Look for sellers on rallies back toward the 100 bar MA (blue line below).  That level comes in at the 1.4400 area currently.

Trading closes today at 2:00 PM NYT for FXDD Posted: 31 Dec 2009 04:23 AM PST In observance of the New Year holiday, FXDD will close at 2:00 PM today and also be closed tomorrow.  We wish all our valued customers a Happy, Healthy, Prosperous and Peaceful New Year.

US Weekly Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 AM Posted: 31 Dec 2009 04:20 AM PST The weekly Unemploymnet Claims are due out at 8:30 AM. The expectation is for a small rise to 460K from 452K last week. The Continuing Claims are expected to show a slight rise to 5100K from 5076K last week.  Both measures have been trending down as the employment situation improves slowly but surely in the USA.

GBPUSD rally continues today. Boosted by better data, continued covering. Resistance tested at 1.6232. Posted: 31 Dec 2009 04:02 AM PST The GBPUSD was supported this morning by better Home Price data this morning.  The short squeeze is also continuing to boost the price as traders square up positions before the New Year.  The price move higher is now testing the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the high in November at the 1.6876 level and the low reached just yesterday at the 1.5832 level. The level comes in at the 1.6231 level.  Look for profit taking sellers at the level.  However, be careful of a  break above given the breadth of the rally that has seen level after level broken. On the downside, support today comes in at the 1.6185 and 1.6158 today.

$EURUSD boosted overnight and holding support. So watch support for trading clues. Posted: 31 Dec 2009 03:39 AM PST The EURUSD has been testing the 100 bar moving average since yesterday afternoon and in early NY trade, the pattern has continued.  The 100 bar moving average comes in at the 1.4400 level currently.  The price tested the MA on no fewer than six occasions.  The trade for the day is if the price stays above the MA, bullish. If it falls below bearish, and look for momentum on the break with a test of the 200 bar moving average the next target (currently at the 1.4374 level) .  Use a 10 or so pip stop as the market should move lower, but if it does not, protect yourself with a stop.

December 31st 2009 NY Opening Forex Commentary Posted: 31 Dec 2009 03:19 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

UK Nationwide HPI m/m Posted: 30 Dec 2009 10:01 PM PST The Nationwide HPI beat estimates for December coming in slightly stronger than expected.  The GBP and the EUR made strong moves to the upside against the USD coming in to the release, but the GBP has given back 30% of the move since the reading. The details of the release are as follows: (MoM) - Survey: 0.3%   Actual: 0.4%   Prior: 0.5% (YoY) - Survey: 5.6%   Actual: 5.9%   Prior: 2.7%

12-31 Economic Calendar Posted: 30 Dec 2009 09:16 PM PST

December 30th 2009 Evening Forex Report is available for viewing Posted: 30 Dec 2009 11:28 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

$EURUSD has intraday support at 1.4327/35 Posted: 30 Dec 2009 09:22 AM PST This was a floor from earlier today. The 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart should provide additional support for the pair.  They come in at the 1.4327 level.  As long as the price can remain above these moving averages, the bias is up intraday. Overall, the EURUSD has had a quiet day. The pair is still down from yesterdays closing level at the 1.4352 level.  The two shorter term moving averages are converged and moving sideways now.  On the hourly chart the price has closed below the 100 hour MA for most of the trading day (100 hour MA comes in at the 1.4363 level).   This will be an upside target price that the EURUSD will have to break to move to higher levels.

December 30th 2009 Midday Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 30 Dec 2009 08:23 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610