Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Wholesale inventories rise 0.3%. Sales rise by 1.2%
- EURUSD tests support target. Watching resistance at 1.4727 in choppy trade.
- S & P lowers Spain to negative from stable
- The $EURUSD is caught in the up and down volatility
- $USDJPY hanging around 88.00 level after overnight plunge
- GBPUSD had a wild down and up day. Volatility to continue as budget speech in progress
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.9.2009
- Darling says will tax bonuses 50% over 25,000 pounds
- UK Chancellor Darling starts the Pre-budget report
- US Mortgage Applications rose 8.5% for the week. Wholesale Inventories due at 10 AM NYT
- UK Trade Balance
- Eur/Gbp above 200 hour M/A
- GBP/USD Daily Perspective
- Pre-Budget report essential to Britain’s AAA rating
| Wholesale inventories rise 0.3%. Sales rise by 1.2% Posted: 09 Dec 2009 07:02 AM PST The Stockpiles or Sales to Inventory Ratio falls to 1.16 months which is the lowest level since August 2008. This may suggest that inventories will need to be replenished which will raise GDP going forward. The stock market is down 7 points. In theory it should help.
The EURUSD got a boost off the data and tested the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.4738 (high reached 1.4736) but held. Choppy markets continue. |
| EURUSD tests support target. Watching resistance at 1.4727 in choppy trade. Posted: 09 Dec 2009 06:50 AM PST
The EURUSD tested the support target at the 1.4701 area (low 1.4698 briefly - see prior post). The close from yesterday came in at the 1.4701 level. There is other support at the 1.4692 level. This should provide profit taking buyers an opportunity to take some profits with stops on a break below the support area. On the topside watch the 1.4727 level to provide resistance. This is where the 200 bar MA is currently found. A move above puts the price back within the ”goal Posts” as defined by the 100 bar MA at 1.4738 and the 200 bar MA. This is a neutral condition. Traders should look for the next break above or below the goal post levels for the next clue. Activity remains choppy for the pair. |
| S & P lowers Spain to negative from stable Posted: 09 Dec 2009 06:07 AM PST Note, the ratings remain affirmed. This has led to a sharp move back down in the EURUSD as the risky nations continue to come under pressure. Greece yesterday. Spain today. |
| The $EURUSD is caught in the up and down volatility Posted: 09 Dec 2009 05:42 AM PST
The EURUSD has not escaped the overnight volatile trading conditions. The pair has corrected higher on the day after the selloff over the last few trading days. The move higher has corrected 50% of the move down from the Monday afternoon highs to the lows reached earlier in the Far East session today. That level came in at the 1.4779 price. The high for the day reached 1.4781. Currently, the price is chopping up and down in early NY trading. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.4738 level. The 200 bar MA comes in at the 1.4726 level. The midpoint of the days range is 1.4725 which increases the importance of that level in early trade today.
A move below would look toward the 1.4701 level which was the close from yesterday. If the price can remain above the 100 bar MA, watch if the price can get above the 1.4756 level. This price was low price on Monday’s trade. The market also used it as a ceiling earlier in today’s trade. A move above should solicit additional buying interest with a break of the high the next hurdle. |
| $USDJPY hanging around 88.00 level after overnight plunge Posted: 09 Dec 2009 05:27 AM PST The USDJPY plunged in early trade on the back of slower growth fears which led to flight into the JPY as a safe haven refuge. The fall sent the pair through the support at the 88.00 level and down to a low at 87.35. Higher stocks has pushed the price back up toward the 88.00 level where the market is currently trading above and below.
The 88.00 level will remain a key level to watch today (this price was the low price in October 2009). Above the level should be bullish from a trading perspective, while below would be a bearish. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is currently at the 87.95 level as well. The midpoint of the days high/low range is at 88.02. All of which suggest the area is a level of balance, but we know a balanced market will lead to a unbalanced market. SO be on alert for a move away at some point. Should the market move higher, the next target is the 88.17 level where the 200 bar MA is found. A break above should confirm the bullish bias and lead to further upside gains today
ON the downside, Watch the 87.78 level. This is the midpoint of the move up from the November 27th low. The 200 hour MA is around this level as well (87.83 currently). A move back below this level would confirm the bearish bias and should see further selling pressure. |
| GBPUSD had a wild down and up day. Volatility to continue as budget speech in progress Posted: 09 Dec 2009 05:02 AM PST
The GBPUSD fell sharply in the early London session, moving to the lowest level since mid October 2009 at 1.6166. The low found support against low level in August/September. The lows on August 26th and 27th was 1.6158 and 1.6152 respectively. while the low close from that time period also was at 1.6158 (on September 1st). The level also corresponded with the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the Septmber low to the November high. That level came in at 1.6166. All the levels gave profit takers a reason to enter and that combined with intraday technicals improving, helped push the price back up. The bounce higher has taken the pair back above the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and remains above those key moving averages. The two moving averages are at the 1.6272 area this is near high/low “remembered prices” at the 1.6278 level. Look for support against these levels today.
On the topside look for resistance against the 1.6362 level. The 100 day moving average comes in at the 1.6417 level today. This is not expected but with the pre-budget speech in progress the market can get heated. Look for low risk trade opportunities as conditions are likely to be choppy for the time period. |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.9.2009 Posted: 09 Dec 2009 04:58 AM PST
The JPY rose on the heels of a report from Japan that their economy grew less than expected. This caused speculation that the global recovery is not as robust as some investors thought. A very quiet economic calender in North America today will leave the currency and other markets looking for direction. Oil:$73.50 Gold:$1141.50 Today’s data: HAVE AGREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
| Darling says will tax bonuses 50% over 25,000 pounds Posted: 09 Dec 2009 04:34 AM PST This comment was not liked by the market. The GBPUSD came off on the headline. He says the money will be used to help the young and older employees. The tax is to be paid by the bank, not the employee. |
| UK Chancellor Darling starts the Pre-budget report Posted: 09 Dec 2009 04:33 AM PST His comments may have an influence on the GBPUSD this morning. The market is concerned about debt levels. |
| US Mortgage Applications rose 8.5% for the week. Wholesale Inventories due at 10 AM NYT Posted: 09 Dec 2009 04:07 AM PST The 30 year fixed rate rose to 4.88% from 4.78% last week. Both the purchase and the refinance index showed gains of 4.0% and 11.1% for the current week respectively.
Later today at 10AM we will have Wholesale Inventories which are expected to show a MoM declien of -0.5% vs a decline of -0.9% last month. This would be the 14th consecutive decline in this measure of inventories. Although stockpiles of wholesale inventories has fallen as inventories fall, the level is congruent with the levels in 2007 suggesting we are just getting back to pre-recessionary levels. Stockpiles are indeed pared, but ultimately sales will drive any inventory replenishment. |
| Posted: 09 Dec 2009 01:34 AM PST UK Trade Balance came in at -7.1B, weaker than the -6.85B estimate. The prior reading of -7.2B was revised down to -6.9B. Mixed results for the UK trade figures. Gbp/Usd is taking a breather and trading within a 1.6275-95 rsnge as of late. |
| Posted: 08 Dec 2009 11:44 PM PST Eur/Gbp is trading above its 200 hour M/A of .9070. It is now testing resistance at .9085, the 38.2% Fibo retracement. If the pair can break above .9105-10 should be next level of resistance. A move to downside will find some support at .9070. A stronger support level is .9050, the 100 hour M/A for the pair.
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| Posted: 08 Dec 2009 10:54 PM PST Gbp/Usd has just begun selling off going into the European morning. If the pair moves to the downside it should find some support at the 61.8% Fibo (1.6152). This support may only be short lived as we see a move to the upside on Oct. 15 give this level no recognition. If the news that comes out of the Pre-Budget release is as negative as some fear a move down to 1.59 handle is not out of the question. To the topside 1.6290 is a strong level of resistance, marking the 50% Fibo retracement.
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| Pre-Budget report essential to Britain’s AAA rating Posted: 08 Dec 2009 10:10 PM PST Alistair Darling’s Pre-Budget report today is apparently the only thing that can prevent Britain from losing its AAA credit rating. Moody’s, the leading ratings agency, dropped this bombshell yesterday as the Chancellor prepared to deliver his statement to Parliament. Darling’s team has already made clear that there will be no early move to tighten fiscal policy beyond that already put forth during the last Budget. This could signal a debt downgrade which would have disasterous effects on the GBP. Concerns regarding the banking industry and weak manufacturing figures added to the market’s sell off of sterling yesterday. The risk of downgrade to the UK has been prevailing factor in trading recently and it appears the risk is increasing. The Pre-Budget report is to be released at 7:30 EST. |
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