Monday, February 1, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

ISM Manufacturing soars to 58.4

Posted: 01 Feb 2010 07:01 AM PST

 ORDER BACKLOG INDEX 56.0 VS 50.0 last
 PRICES-PAID INDEX 70.0 VS 61.5 last
 INVENTORIES INDEX 46.5 VS 43.0 last 
 EMPLOYMENT INDEX 53.3 VS 50.2 last 
 PRODUCTION INDEX 66.2 VS 59.7 last 
 NEW ORDERS INDEX 65.9 VS 64.8 last

ISM is due out in a few minutes

Posted: 01 Feb 2010 06:59 AM PST

Expectation is 55.5.

USDCAD moves below intraday moving average levels. Trendline and 100 hour MA eyed at 1.0646

Posted: 01 Feb 2010 06:42 AM PST

gregmike-00264

The USDCAD has moved through the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart after toying with the two moving averages for most of the trading day.  The moving averages are starting to turn down and should provide upside resistance now.  The 200 bar comes in at the 1.0693 now (green line in the chart above). Look for sellers against the level with stops above the 100 bar MA at the 1.0696 level (blue line in chart above)

On the downside, the key target is the 1.0646 level where the 100 hour MA and the trendline from the move up from the January 19th low is found.  This defines the upward trend and a move below would turn the bias to the downside.  When two key technical levels converge it increases the significance of the level.  Be aware. Be prepared.

gregmike-00265

EURUSD moves above channel resistance at 1.3914 area.

Posted: 01 Feb 2010 06:31 AM PST

gregmike-00263

The EURUSD has pushed above the resistance at the channel trendline at 1.3914 currently. This should lead to further upside corrective pressure.  Targets on the upside continue to be the 1.3935 level (61.8% of the move down from Friday’s high) and then the 1.3983 level which is the 38.2% of the move down from the January 25th high, an old high area and where the 100 hour MA (blue line in the hourly chart is found).   On the downside, the price needs to maintain above the trendline support and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart currently at the 1.3901 level (and moving higher),  to keep the corrective upward bias in tact (see chart below). 

 gregmike-00262

Forex Morning Report - Feb 1st

Posted: 01 Feb 2010 06:30 AM PST

Click here to view the embedded video.

Next FXDD Online Training Tuesday Feb 2nd 2010 Register Here

GBPUSD tests 1.5922 level

Posted: 01 Feb 2010 06:00 AM PST

gregmike-00261

The GBPUSD has moved higher and is testing the 1.5922 level which corresponds with the trendline broken during the London session. The price has also moved above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.5914 level. The 200 bar MA at the 1.5934 level needs to be surpassed to confirm what should be further upside momentum for the pair with upside target at 1.5975.

gregmike-00260

Personal Income and Spending come in mixed

Posted: 01 Feb 2010 05:33 AM PST

The Income was up 0.4% after a revised 0.5% gain (vs +0.4%).  The Personal Spending rose by 0.2% vs +0.3% expectation. The prior month was revised up 0.7% however. The savings rate rose to 4.8% from 4.5%.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.1.2010

Posted: 01 Feb 2010 05:30 AM PST

bob-slade-forex-trading-4-150x200Good Morning:

The Euro showed some strength overnight-as manufacturing in the EZ improved to 52.4  from 52.  The Euro has been hurt the past month as concerns about Greece, (and now Spain and Portugal) continue to weigh heavenly on the multi country currency. 

World equity markets are mixed-US futures are higher this morning.  Hopefully today’s US manufacturing data will also show that the US economy is on the road to recovery.

Today the White House is expected to announce the 2010 Fiscal Year budget as a $1.556 tril deficit-versus  $1.502 tril original estimate.

Oil:$73.30                                        Gold:$1087.10

TIME FOR  EST PRIOR
8:30A.M. PERSONAL INCOME DEC. 0.30% 0.40%
8:30A.M. PERSONAL SPENDING DEC. 0.30% 0.50%
8:30A.M. PCE DEFLATOR YoY DEC. 2.20% 1.50%
8:30A.M. PCE CORE MoM DEC. 0.10% 0.00%
8:30A.M. PCE CORE YoY DEC. 1.50% 1.40%
10:00A.M. ISM MANUFACTURING JAN. 55.6O     55.9O
10:00A.M. ISM PRICES PAID JAN.       63.O     61.5O
10:00A.M. CONSTRUCTION SPENDING MoM DEC. -0.40% -0.60%

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

I will be heading to the World Money Show in Orlando from Feb 3-6.. Come by and visait the FXDD booth.

EURUSD tests upper band of channel resistance at 1.3920 level

Posted: 01 Feb 2010 05:17 AM PST

gregmike-00258

The EURUSD created a double bottom at the 1.3852 level (this was also the lower trendline in the above channel formation).  The support, gave buyers the courage to enter the market, and when EURGBP started a  move higher, this helped the EURUSD in the process. Now the price is testing the upper band of the channel move lower at the 1.3920 area.  A break above will likely next target the 1.3983 area over time where the 38.2% retracement of hte move down from January 25th, the high from Friday (at 1.3987) and the 100 hour MA (currently at 1.3993) are all located.

The market is also testing the midpoint of the move down from the Friday high also at the 1.3920 level.  Off this chart there should be interim upside resistance at the 1.3935 level where the 61.8% retracement target is found.

gregmike-00259

On the downside, look for support against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.3895 level.  The price has been supported against the level for most of the trading day and I would expect intraday buyers to test the low risk level with stops on a move lower.

Personal Income and Spending due at 8:30 AM, ISM index and Construction Spending due at 10 AM

Posted: 01 Feb 2010 05:03 AM PST

pyps

At 8:30 the Personal Income and spending will be released for December. The expectation is for both to rise with Income increasing by 0.3% and Spending rising by an equal 0.3%. Last month income increased by 0.4% while spending increased by 0.5%.  Consumption in the US is 2/3rds of GDP so a higher increase would likely help contribute to a higher 4th quarter GDP revision and visa versa.  On Friday GDP was released showing a sharp 5.7% Q/Q annualized rate. This was much stronger than expected and led to dollar buying.

pmi

At 10:00 AM the ISM Manufacturing index for the month of January will be released with the expectation of a rise from 54.9 to 55.5.  The reading above 50 will be the 6th straight month showing expansion. On Friday the Chicago PMI came in much stronger at 61.5. This was the highest reading since November 2005.

csusa

Also out at 10AM will be Construction Spending which is expected to show a decline of -0.5% for the 8th straight month on month decline and the 14th decline in the last 15 months as housing and commercial construction continue to decline from oversupply.

February 1st 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 01 Feb 2010 04:41 AM PST

UK Manufacturing PMI

Posted: 01 Feb 2010 01:32 AM PST

 The GBP caught a lid bid, but then sold off after further reading of the UK Man. PMI which was better than expected; 56.7 versus a forecast of 54.6. This has been the highest reading since October 1994. Additionally, mortgage approvals in the UK were lower than forecasted at 59K versus 62K

Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI

Posted: 01 Feb 2010 01:04 AM PST

The EUR traded slightly higher and revisited the session high of 1.3904 after the Final Manufacturing PMI out of the Eurozone was better than expected at 52.7 versus a forecast and prior showing of 52.0.

Swiss SVME PMI

Posted: 01 Feb 2010 12:34 AM PST

The market showed a limited reaction to the SVME Purchasing Managers Index out of Switzerland came in at 56.0; better than the forecast of 55.4 and prior reading of 54.6.

FXDD Online Training Tuesday Feb 2 2010 Register

Posted: 31 Jan 2010 08:41 PM PST

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