Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- AUDUSD. Is a further correction due?
- Forex Morning Report - Feb 8
- USDJPY also participating in Choppy Monday
- Canada Housing Starts come out better at 186.3. USDCAD ignores the better data and bounces in quiet trade
- GBPUSD rejects a move below the floor and squeezes higher in choppy trading
- EURUSD back below Friday’s close/shorter term moving averages
- February 8th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
- Strong retail sales figures out of Switzerland
- Swiss Unemployment Rate
- 2-8 Economic Calendar
- JPY Current Account
| AUDUSD. Is a further correction due? Posted: 08 Feb 2010 06:34 AM PST
Looking at the AUDUSD 5 minute chart over the last 24 hours of trading or so, there is some choppy action. However, there are some “remembered prices” which have created a few floors in the pair in the shorter term. The first floor come in at the 89.20 level where the market used as extreme lows on 3 separate occassions on Friday afternoon, before falling through. Later the level was used as support leading to the next range higher. The second floor has come in at 0.8642 where on two occassions today, the price has dipped to this level. The last dip could only come down to 0.8650 where buyers entered. We will be watching the action this morning to see if the price can maintain the bottoming bias. A move below the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (green line) will likely muddy the water and may then look to probe the downside 0.8640 floor. So a key time for the AUDUSD may be developing. On the hourly chart the topside key resistance is evident at the 87.07 area. The 38.2% retracement of the last leg down, and highs from the last 24 hours have stalled at these areas. Clearly a break of this level is needed to push the correction higher.
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| Posted: 08 Feb 2010 06:30 AM PST |
| USDJPY also participating in Choppy Monday Posted: 08 Feb 2010 05:40 AM PST
The USDJPY went down and tested the 89.18 midpoint of the move up from Friday’s low in early NY trade and bounced. The bounce higher has not been able to break above the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (sellers against the moving average levels - see blue and green lines above) which keeps the wraps on the bulls. As long as the price remains below these moving average levels at the 89.33 and 89.37 levels respectively, the price bias remains to the downside. A break of 89.18 - that is accompanied with downside momentum - will look toward Friday’s low at 88.81. On a break higher (above 89.37 blue line), the next key upside target comes in at 89.58 where the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the February 3rd high to the February 4th low is located. The price held below that level today reaching a high of 89.55. A break above is likely to see further upside momentum for the USDJPY.
Looking at the longer term chart, the 89.28 level is the midpoint of the move up from the November low. Above keep in mind the 100 day MA comes in at 90.15 as a key upside target price. On the downside, the old channel trendline comes in at 88.55 area. The market has tested this old trendline on two occassions in the last few weeks - bouncing each time. A break put the price back in the old range. Look for buyers on dips toward this level - at least initially.
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| Posted: 08 Feb 2010 05:22 AM PST The expectation was for a 180.0K increase. This is the 4th straight monthly increase. The low was reached in April 2009 at 120.40.
The USDCAD has remained contained so far. The price moved down to the 100 bar MA on the data’s release but has bounced. That level comes in at the 1.0688. In order to keep the bullish bias this morning a move above the 1.0706 is needed followed by the price getting through 1.0721. On the downside, if the 100 bar MA is broken, key support comes in against the 100 and 200 hour MAs which are nearly identical at the 1.0652 area.
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| GBPUSD rejects a move below the floor and squeezes higher in choppy trading Posted: 08 Feb 2010 05:05 AM PST
The GBPUSD has had a choppy trading session as the market fights with negative fundamental bias and a market that may be oversold and in need of a consolidation/non-trend period. Last week the price moved from a high of 1.6068 to the low of 1.5533 today. The low from Friday reached 1.5557. The price is now back above 1.5600, moving above the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at 1.5583 and 1.5593 respectively. In addition, the price tested the 1.5557 level in the early NY session, falling to 1.5548, but this was reversed. All of which gives a positive bias at least in the short term Longer term, there is resistance at the 38.2% retracement level of the 2009 low to high range which comes in at 1.5689. Before that look for resistance at the 1.5629/36 area which was the close from Friday and a double top from Friday’s afternoon trade. With little in the way of economic data today, trading should continue to remain choppy.
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| EURUSD back below Friday’s close/shorter term moving averages Posted: 08 Feb 2010 04:53 AM PST
The EURUSD held support earlier today the 1.3621 level (see floor above) and this gave the pair confidence to move higher. The price moved above the converged 100 and 200 bar Moving averages on the 5 minute chart at 1.3640 area and the price moved sharply higher to 1.3713 where sellers emerged. The price was then pressured back down as talk of union strikes in Greece brought the debt situation back to the spotlight. So we stand at a neutral levels. The close from Friday is 1.3664. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is 1.3667. Below these level give a bearish bias. On the downside the 1.3621 floor must be broken to lead to a test of the lows from Friday. A move above has 1.3685 and 1.3713 as the next upside targets. With little in the way of economic data, the market sledding may be rough today. |
| February 8th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 08 Feb 2010 04:35 AM PST |
| Strong retail sales figures out of Switzerland Posted: 08 Feb 2010 12:22 AM PST Swiss retail sales y/y came in at 4.7%, stronger than the 1.3% expected and the -0.1% prior reading. Usd/Chf has made new lows off the news down at 1.0730. Eur/Chf continues to trade 1.4682-87 as it seems Euro strength is preventing a sell off of the pair. |
| Posted: 07 Feb 2010 10:56 PM PST The Swiss Unepmloyment Rate (seasonally adjusted) came in at 4.1%, an improvement over the 4.3% expected and 4.2% prior reading. Seemingly a good number for the CHF, although there has not been much of a market reaction. The market may be looking more closely at the upcoming retail sales figures out of Switzerland in a little over an hours time. Eur/Chf and Usd/Chf are relatively unchanged at 1.4665 and 1.0760 respectively. |
| Posted: 07 Feb 2010 09:11 PM PST
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| Posted: 07 Feb 2010 04:08 PM PST With the market off to a quiet start, the current account balance out of Japan did little to change things. The details are as follows:
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