Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- USDJPY pushes above 90.90.
- ISM comes in weaker than expected
- USDCHF moves back above moving average resistance after testing key support overnight
- Forex Morning Report - Feb 3rd
- EURUSD moves down and approached the 100 hour MA now
- FXDD Online Training Info- Thurs Feb 4, 4pm
- ADP comes in at -22k. Prior month revised higher. A touch better than expected
- EURUSD moves lower in early NY trade to test 100 bar MA and other support levels
- February 3 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
- Challenger Job Cutx come in down 70.4% vs last year
- Euro Retail Sales m/m
- UK Services PMI
- EUR Final Services
- Australian Trade Balance
- UK Consumer Confidence
| Posted: 03 Feb 2010 07:24 AM PST The break should lead to further momentum to the upside. There is not much resistance to the upside with 91.17 and 91.45 the next upside targets. Look for support at 90.80-86 now. |
| ISM comes in weaker than expected Posted: 03 Feb 2010 07:01 AM PST It is higher than last month at 50.1 but below the expectation at 51.0. The good news is the value is back above 50. Component pieces are outlined below: BACKLOGS INDEX 45.5 vs 48.0 |
| USDCHF moves back above moving average resistance after testing key support overnight Posted: 03 Feb 2010 06:38 AM PST
The USDCHF had a rough go earlier in the day falling toward the support at the 1.0500 level. On the daily chart, the price decline tested the high ceiling that developed in December 2009 at the 1.0497 to 1.0507 area (see chart above). The price was also testing the key 200 hour MA at that time. That level came in at the 1.0495 level. So not only was there support off the daily chart but also was support at the 200 hour MA level. When you have multiple reasons to find support, traders with a low risk bias will look to enter with stops close by on a break. In this case support held and the price rebounded higher. Now the price has moved back above the 100 hour MA at the 1.0556 level and this turns the bias to the upside from this measure. The next target above is the 1.0581 level. ON the downside support is at the 1.0556 where the 100 hour MA is found. A move below has support at 1.0542 with additional pressure expected on a break of that level.
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| Forex Morning Report - Feb 3rd Posted: 03 Feb 2010 06:30 AM PST |
| EURUSD moves down and approached the 100 hour MA now Posted: 03 Feb 2010 05:56 AM PST
The 1.3938 level is the 100 hour MA. The market is approaching this level and should find low risk buyers against the level- at least initially. Earlier today the market moved up and tested the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) and held. The failure above at the 200 hour moving average, moved the price back between the ” goal posts” as defined by the 100 and 200 bar MA (blue and green line in the chart above). On a failure to extend above the 200 hour MA, the market will often look to go and test the other key moving average. That moving average is the 100 hour MA currently at the 1.3938 level. The market will then look for a direction through a break of either extreme. IF it breaks below the 100 hour MA, the bias reverses to negative. If it breaks above the 200 hour MA, the upside bias is confirmed. |
| FXDD Online Training Info- Thurs Feb 4, 4pm Posted: 03 Feb 2010 05:46 AM PST
Next Forex trading class online, this Thursday Feb 4th at 4pm. >>> Please register in advance with this link Rebroadcast of FEB 2nd 2010 Training -Click here to watch |
| ADP comes in at -22k. Prior month revised higher. A touch better than expected Posted: 03 Feb 2010 05:15 AM PST A revison in the prior month was down to -61 K prior from -84K. Overall a good number. Not great but good. The USDJPY has moved higher on the data and is testing the last high from yesterday before the fall at 90.71. Above is 90.90 level which has three tops and the 38.2% of the move down from the January high. Support below… 90.55 which is the highs from January 22nd, 26th, 28th and was a level of pause today. This is key support below.
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| EURUSD moves lower in early NY trade to test 100 bar MA and other support levels Posted: 03 Feb 2010 05:05 AM PST
The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.3987 level. The midpoint of the days range comes in at 1.3986. In addition the 38.2% of the move down from the January 25th high to the low comes in at 1.3983. As a result we are seeing some hesitation at the level before the ADP report at 8:15 (ext -40K). Lets see whichway the market wants to go following the number. Earlier the market rallied on the back of the EU backing the Greek deficit cutting plan and slightly better economic data (ISM) The price moved up to test the 200 hour MA (at 1.4022) and 50% retracement of the move down from the January 25th high to the low reached on February 1st (at 1.4023 - see chart below). The high reached 1.4026 but came off quickly. Now with the price testing the 38.2% retracement of the same move and prior ceiling levels from January 28th and January 29 (yellow line below), the market should find cause for pause. A break through should start to look toward the close from yesterday at 1.3963 and below that 100 hour moving average at the 1.3938 (back down to the other Goal Post as defined by the 100 and 200 hour MA in the chart below).
If support holds, the 200 hour MA and 50% retracement continues to attract at the 1.4022/23 area. That would be the upside target. |
| February 3 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 03 Feb 2010 04:45 AM PST |
| Challenger Job Cutx come in down 70.4% vs last year Posted: 03 Feb 2010 04:42 AM PST Challenger came out and showed job cuts fell -70.4% from last year. The Total announced cuts came in at 71.482 which was up from the 45,094 announced cuts last month. SO on a month on month basis the increase was the first after 5 months of improvements. Later today we will get the ADP Employment report with expectations of a -30K job decline for January. The NFP which includes public sector workers is expected to show a 10K increase on Friday. The ADP has been lower than the NFP recently but was right on last month when it showed an -84K job loss estimate while the NFP cam in at -85K. |
| Posted: 03 Feb 2010 02:03 AM PST Eurozone retail sales came in flat at 0.0% versus the 0.4% forecast for the month over month reading, but the market had a limited reaction to the release. |
| Posted: 03 Feb 2010 01:30 AM PST Sterling came off 20 points against the USD after UK Services PMI came in at 54.4; worse than its forecast of 56.6. |
| Posted: 03 Feb 2010 01:22 AM PST The Euro has caught a bid over the last hour gaining nearly 50 pips against the USD. In the midst of this rally European Final Services PMI came in slightly higher than expected; 52.5 versus 52.3 forecast and prior reading. Currently the EUR is trading at 1.4021. |
| Posted: 02 Feb 2010 04:36 PM PST The Aussie December Trade Balance expected to come in down (2,400 M) came in better than expected at -2252M, with a prior month revision slightly lower. The AUD received a quick boost that has since subsided. The AUD/USD pair has retraced just over 61.8% of yesterday’s downward move following the unexpected pause by the RBA on the cash rate (held at 3.75%.) It will be interesting to see if the pair can penetrate yesterday’s levels prior to the RBA decision.
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| Posted: 02 Feb 2010 04:06 PM PST The UK’s January Nationwide Consumer Confidence reading came in stronger than expected at 73 versus the estimate of 70 and the prior reading of 69 (revised up to 70.) The Sterling received a short lived bid on the release before subsiding. In addition to this release the BRC January Shop Price Index rose to 2.3% from 2.2% the prior month. |
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