Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- USDJPY moves lower on weaker data and Fed on hold
- Text of Bernake Speech can be found at the FOMC website
- EURUSD falls on housing then rises on Bernanke. Now in the middle
- Bernanke comments about as expected.
- New Home Sales much weaker than expected.
- EURUSD moves above the topside resistance prior to Fed’s Bernanke
- Forex Morning Report - Feb 24
- USDJPY remains around the 100 day MA at 90.16.
- GBPUSD also laying the high/low levels pre-Bernanke
- Rebroadcast of Feb 23rd FXDD Online Trading Class
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.24.2010
- EURUSD holds the support. Now it is off to resistance at 1.3568> Fed’s Bernanke awaited.
- February 24th 2009 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
- ECB Bini Smaghi on newswires
- Eurozone Industrial New Orders
| USDJPY moves lower on weaker data and Fed on hold Posted: 24 Feb 2010 07:36 AM PST
The USDJPY fell on the weaker housing data, putting some room in between the price and the 100 day MA at the key 90.16 level. The move down exrtended to 89.76. The next downside target extends to the 89.57 level which was a floor level before the market moved higher on February 12th. On the topside, the price should stay below the 90.00 level. A move back above the 90.16 level (100 day MA would muddy the waters for the bears and put the market back in a neutral stance as it decides the next trend directional move.
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| Text of Bernake Speech can be found at the FOMC website Posted: 24 Feb 2010 07:26 AM PST Bernanke is reading his speech now. For the text of the speech click on the following link: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20100224a.htm | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD falls on housing then rises on Bernanke. Now in the middle Posted: 24 Feb 2010 07:09 AM PST
The market dipped to support on the weak housing then rose on the Bernanke comments to the first upside resistance target. The low reached 1.3542, just above the 1.3539 support area. The upside spiked up to 1.3595, a pip higher than the 50% target level (see prior post). The correction off the high came down to 1.3569 which is the 100 hour MA support. All levels remain in play. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bernanke comments about as expected. Posted: 24 Feb 2010 07:05 AM PST Rates to stay low for an extended period of time. Inflation to remain subdued. Job market remains quite weak. Wage pressure low. Fed will tighten at some point. Discount rate move does not signal policy change. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| New Home Sales much weaker than expected. Posted: 24 Feb 2010 07:02 AM PST 309K vs 354K expected. The month supple rises to 9.1months from 8.0. The weather may have had an impact on the data. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD moves above the topside resistance prior to Fed’s Bernanke Posted: 24 Feb 2010 06:52 AM PST
The EURUSD can’t wait and is breaking above the resistance ceiling at the 1.3568/70 level. The market seems to be discounting a scenario where the Fed Chairman will be more dovish. The stock market up 70 points is also helping prior to the headlines at 10:00. Support now comes in at the 1.3564 level. If this level can hold the downside the price has the potential to extend higher. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 24 Feb 2010 06:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. >> Thursday, Feb 25th 2010 at 4pm Register Here | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| USDJPY remains around the 100 day MA at 90.16. Posted: 24 Feb 2010 06:26 AM PST
The USDJPY remains around the 100 day MA as the market non-trends. Of course, non-trending markets transition into a trend, so we will be looking for the possibility of a break and trend type move up or down today. Looking at the shorter term 5 minute chart, the 100 and 200 bar MA are at the 90.15 and 90.17 levels respectively. The convergence of price and the 2 moving averages are another clue the market is non-trending . This is what we call Three’s a Crowd and it often is a prelude to a trend type move. If the price should move higher above the 90.16 area, a confirmation of the directional move would take the price above the 90.25 level where there has been a number of highs on the 5 minute chart. Further confirmation comes on a break of the high reached today at 90.35. This should get the momentum to the upside moving with the next target at 90.55 and then 90.77. On the downside, the floor yesterday and today came in at the 89.91/93. A break of this level will target lower prices with 89.58 being a target level (see yellow area in the chart below - Remembered Price from Feb 10-12). Other support comes in at 89.28 (50% of the move up from the Nov 2009 low to the high in January 2010).This is seen in the daily chart below. Be aware. Be prepared.
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| GBPUSD also laying the high/low levels pre-Bernanke Posted: 24 Feb 2010 05:29 AM PST
The GBPUSD is buying time between support and resistance as Bernanke is awaited. The topside has the 100 hour MA at the 1.5472 and the downside has trendline support at the 1.5411 level. Above the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above), the 1.5531 level and then 1.5556 become confirming levels of the bullish trend. These levels were key levels going back to beginning of February (see chart below)
On the downside, the 1.5380 level and the 1.5354 price help to confirm further downside pressure today. Longer term the GBPUSD still has a target downside at 1.5272 which is the midpoint of the move up
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| Rebroadcast of Feb 23rd FXDD Online Trading Class Posted: 24 Feb 2010 05:26 AM PST To watch the Online trading class from yesterday, look for Feb 23rd 2010 link here http://forex.fxdd.com/webinars | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.24.2010 Posted: 24 Feb 2010 05:07 AM PST
The USD lost some ground overnight on speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue to keep interest rates at historic lows. By keeping interst rates at near zero-the Fed is hoping to support the US economy’s growth. World equity markets are higher-and US futures are pointing to a higher opening this morning. Oil:$79.25 Gold:$1096.20
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD holds the support. Now it is off to resistance at 1.3568> Fed’s Bernanke awaited. Posted: 24 Feb 2010 04:54 AM PST The 1.3531-39 level is support for the EURUSD and it held on the early NY dip. The topside is the 100 hour MA at the 1.3568 level currently. A break above or below either level should lay the groundwork for the bias in NY. On a break above the target becomes 1.3594 and then the 200 hour MA at the 1.3607 (green line in the chart below).
On the downside, a break of the 1.3531-39 level has trendline support at the 1.3517 on the 5 minute chart and then the low for the week at 1.3496. The low price for 2010 is 1.3444. It too comes into play.
Of course we do have Bernanke at 10:00 where he is likely to explain further discuss the discount rate decision and where that may be going with that (likely higher for the discount rate), talk about the reserve requirement tightening procedure. The Fed will use the rate it pays banks for excess reserves to slow lending growth. Growth is picked up with projections of growth up to 4%, but job growth is not expected to provide any sustainable relief with projections ranging from 9.5% as being the 2010 low. This is not likely to spur on robust growth for an extended period of time and is also likely to keep the housing and commercial real estate subdued. He will also likely speak about how the Fed will exit the purchase of mortgage securities and the risks to the real estate market should rates increase as a result. All of which point to a Fed that is likely to remain on the sidelines with regard to tightening but exiting all the emergency measures, thus simplifying the decision making process for the Fed down the road. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| February 24th 2009 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 24 Feb 2010 04:36 AM PST | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 24 Feb 2010 03:50 AM PST Says anchoring inflation expectations is key to stability. He adds that ECB decision is based on inflation risk and market stability and says current ratees are adequate. Finally, he talks of Greeece and comments that their should be no riskof contagion if the measures come fast and says better data and controls can avert crisis.
The EURUSD is finding a bid as NY enters for the day. The price bounced off the support area at the 1.3531-39 and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (currently at the 1.3540 level. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Eurozone Industrial New Orders Posted: 24 Feb 2010 02:04 AM PST The EUR gained ground against the USD after the release of much better than expected new orders out of the Eurozone, which came in as follows:
The EUR/USD is currently trading off session highs at 1.3534. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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